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The -- if you could -- flu continues to spread across the nation the CDC is now reporting 141.
Confirmed cases in nineteen states.
But more than half the states have get the stockpile the government recommended number of flu vaccines.
Saying budget restraints off forcing them to spend money on preventing the spread of the disease not -- -- There -- twelve confirmed deaths in Mexico one that in the US that was a boy from Mexico went to Houston for treatment.
That -- now 300 confirmed cases in Mexico.
Will the Swine Flu have enough impact to push Mexico's economy into the abyss my next guest does not think so.
Ray Walston senior policy policy analyst at -- Latin America at The Heritage Foundation joins me now so I I used obviously very strong would.
I questioned whether the Mexican economy could collapse because of this variety of ills which is being subjected to recently you don't think it's that bad.
I think it's that they are clearly this is looking at the latest figures on that.
Growth there's a contraction.
Flu epidemic will cause an even greater contraction I think they're looking at something on the order of about.
For this year as much as a 5%.
Contraction of the Mexican economy which would then put it on par -- The crisis roughly -- about nineteen the 19941995.
But you know right about prediction that suggestion I think came from the finance minister way it would be a 5% contraction that was made a couple of days ago.
Right around the time when the Mexican government said that kind of shut down virtually everything from may first until -- -- -- -- -- fifth.
Maybe they're not factoring in that real big shot down into their equation that never you know -- a calculation.
-- -- I'm not exactly sure how this goes to everything up and -- productive zones up on the front tier into the Monterey normally.
-- but yes it's going to be it's it's going to be a severe factor.
In and losing a week of productivity a week of wages.
The ripple effect in the tourism industry which is so vital to.
Mexico is going to be missed from cruise ships are not landing there hotels -- -- so it's going to be a severe effect well Jen could run higher.
Yeah I mean you're going to have this up now you've got a drug war.
You've got a loss of control of by the central authority is -- some parts of Mexico there is an active revolt in Chiapas and I think which is not being totally settled yet.
You've got a flow of money from Mexicans in United States which is beginning to really dry up going into Mexico.
Now you've got the flu.
You know it really adds up to a desperate situation but I gotta say at this point there's been no run on the -- if I'm not -- Well it's declined in value I don't think I wouldn't call it a run I think it's gone something like about two weeks ago is trading about twelve to one now it's about.
Fourteen to one so yes there's been.
In the peso but again.
I think that my understanding is that the relative fundamentals of banking.
Are are still pretty solid.
There's no confidence in the government to see it's see that's.
This crisis through and hopefully the news that it's that the cases there are stabilizing.
We could see some change in the next couple of weeks but you -- be a rough that you think we should get together have to go to the IMF full maybe the American taxpayer.
-- -- of the bailout but some like let's say support.
Well my understanding is they have gone to the -- American development bank for roughly about today.
Three billion dollars in soft loans and then -- gone the -- or.
Lesser amounts of loans to sort of tide them over in the economic in the medical emergency.
Something I think on the order of 200 million dollars I believe I heard so so yes they're -- to me they're gonna look for some generosity from.
The international financial community to a system at this particular point but no collapse not use that would -- -- -- no collapsed.
I hope not I hope that that's it's it's a tough situation.
But we really don't want the collapse of the Mexican account no.
And I hesitate to use the world I'm been -- being overly dramatic probably shouldn't do that -- -- -- right well also thanks very much for joining us so we appreciate your steady hand on this who could --
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