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Next guest sees -- jobless rate hitting 8% by the end of year we're joined now by Stephen Stanley the chief economist.
-- SharePoint securities to get his take on number Stephen it's great to have you back on the show.
I -- how are you doing great so reading your post report released your -- you eat your calling the -- situation the report today showing a steady significant improvement what impresses you the most.
Well I think we're starting to finally get combustion on on job growth the last two months we've had 470000.
Gains in private sector payroll so.
You know that's that's sort of gains that we've all been now looking for hoping for it's taken a -- to get there but it it feels like we're finally turning a corner it's.
-- always have to look at these details here I mean.
Is that the labor force hasn't grown in four years -- -- that passed be a big red flags for you it has to be of some concern.
Well I think there's there's no doubt that you have to contrast the change in what's going on -- labor markets with the level of of labor market activity in and obviously with an eight point 8% unemployment rate well that's that's good news that it's down.
We still got a pretty bad situation overall I think in overtime -- will continue to.
To eat into that excess of of workers who are looking for jobs but it's gonna take a while there's no question about it.
More importantly -- well.
Just as importantly do you see a trend setting up here because I know there was a lot of noise earlier this year the January report because of the weather some other distortions so.
Are we on an upward trajectory.
Well I think that's what's what's nice about the march number isn't it you know some of these distortions that it hit us earlier in the year seem to have washed through and I think this is a pretty legitimate gain it we're saying.
Pretty pretty widespread across sectors and I think it's indicative of the fact that.
That we're seeing companies that need to add workers because they're saying better demand.
Another quick question for you.
Compelling -- to report on wages flat.
As you know we -- lessen inflationary pressures here gas prices food prices that's gonna be a problem kind of had when is that presenting.
Well you know overall people are gonna be getting more income because more people are going to be working but I I don't think -- -- point 8% unemployment rate that we should expect wages to take off now the key there in terms of you know putting that back toward monetary policy.
Is you know what the relationship biz and I know a lot of economists to you know look it kind of -- textbook relationship that wage.
Growth leads inflation price inflation.
And and I just I simply don't think that's so I think that the price numbers will go up first.
And and the real question for the Fed is whether they get so entrenched at the wages follow as well and I I think that's certainly something to be watching.
You -- FOMC will begin to raise rates in November of this -- there.
That's pretty -- Stephen yeah well you know it was a it was a real -- call a few months ago now it it seems to -- coming closer to the mainstream certainly had a number of fed officials over the last couple of days have been talking about the possibility of having to move before the end of the year.
I just think they're going to be forced by the inflation data inflation has started to rise and I think you gonna see that continue as we move through the year.
In what do you make about who might look that different segments that look at manufacturing jobs are really -- over the last almost.
A big addition in the manufacturing -- although this month it came down a little bit you gotta wait till you see a few more months of trends before you try to make anything out of that.
Well I yeah I mean manufacturing is clearly very strong right now we -- -- again in the united some numbers this morning.
And we have seen good job growth in manufacturing.
It decelerated a little bit of march but still pretty healthy gains.
I think at the end of the day though you know most of the jobs -- in the service sector of the economy now days and and for us to get.
Really good overall numbers we're gonna have to -- continue to see the strength.
In the service sector that we saw this month.
All right Stephen Stanley we sure appreciate your time your analysis session on the country's job market and how we set up for the future have a great weekend by.
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