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Hey what we thought this is dot com -- Tracy burns Chris got a Dow's down 82 points.
Yeah and that's been on this now at least some -- except for Kellogg's we had great earnings reports this morning but we still I guess have this economic.
Debbie downer lingering over our head.
-- -- tax breaks and we did you put -- news today that wasn't so.
Agree on NAFTA Dagestan in two points Phillies -- I think it's just sort of maybe we that we should come down before you know I think this is too recent -- maybe even three weeks in a row.
When we had a day.
We were cut up and and we had a day when -- flat like we had yesterday where you sort of -- -- yourself either we got away with it.
And now we're go on another 34 days higher.
-- which is delayed that shoe dropping for another day before we.
-- -- some of that out this is so up front but it -- I I think I think it is don't you mean we have four straight days you have pretty nice little run in the last happened July -- been actually pretty good month.
-- even a little bit of that anemic volume even jobless claims today -- and a little bit better than expected to reliably and -- raffle.
So many of hazardous.
As -- really being glass half full.
Well that's like being the last 18.
Who have won a full is a little solace in the bottom like last with full we reviewed 2000 better than expected 111000.
Better than last week.
Mean from a terrible week.
Usually use evidence saying you're looking for it can trends continuing I -- me and I you know I -- a little better right it's a little.
A little better than last week it's a little bit and a -- look better than we had expect.
Paul Nolte joins us right after the Chicago joins us off didn't have managing director did one partners hey Paul how are you.
Doing well thank you very much we make it today that chart is ugly maybe we started off in the end of their better territory are trading higher in Europe this morning looked like -- -- gonna.
Put yesterday's flat -- behind us for next laid up and then all of a sudden it about.
Tech -- so we just started to to give it up.
Well I mean -- -- the kind of things are just a little bit better than the most recently reported number but I think if you take an expanded view and take a look back over the last 34 months and even -- back as far as nine months.
The data really is not much better believe weekly jobless candidate claims number has been hanging around 415 now since the beginning part of the year and although earnings numbers are a little bit better than expected.
It's coming it's still on a lot of cost cutting we're not seeing it huge amount of revenue growth it's modest but not not big.
Another question is where we go from here as far as earnings and revenue numbers.
And valuations of the market are still fairly high the market is really unchanged now since late September early part of October.
So again we're in a very broad sideways market and again as you mentioned we.
We've had a good July and that followed on a poor June.
And maybe we trend down a little bit in August so again it's very sideways market waiting for more strength in the economy.
That we have not seen yet.
Hi this market -- down because of economic data is it down because of this notion of a double dip recession in.
And -- what are we moving on these days.
-- we can throw it we can -- California into the -- we can throw depending on -- the month we can throw Europe into it.
Plenty of news for the market to grab a hold of that can say you know things are not great there's also some good news around that this is that maybe the markets can go higher.
But again from a longer term perspective valuations in the market or toward the high end.
And we -- even during the 1970s.
We're earnings continued to improve throughout the decade but -- is really didn't go anywhere -- down a little bit until valuations got to be very very low.
Before we saw a sustained recovery in the in the -- equity markets so it could be that -- in this long drawn out period where.
It takes awhile for earnings to catch up to valuations and we get a very low valued market.
But that being said that though large stocks still -- very very good here.
Wood down on and it's really just hit triple digits -- the downside on the -- all poll you look at any technical numbers.
-- if we break out in one way or doesn't he had been in a tight range since end of -- if we do get a break out that really Foster a big move one direction or another.
If you're looking strictly at the technical numbers 1040 seems to be a very popular number on the S&P 500.
And then much below that I think you -- those the way firm may be as much down -- 950.
But again strictly from a technical perspective.
Again we're looking really more at the fundamentals and -- earnings.
-- we are in the short term technicals and that the technical picture really drives that today today you're hourly and not really the longer term picture.
-- isn't just looking better to you now as we're starting here from them you know we're getting pretty good guidance surprisingly from a lot of these companies gone forward.
Not -- -- top line growth legacy depends on the industry you're looking at has anything surprised you thus far.
Again when we take a look at the very long term let me throw out -- just a couple names that we looked at IBM and Johnson & Johnson.
Those two companies have struggled a little bit here recently but when you look at their earnings pictured their earnings are now triple.
What they were ten years ago yet the stock price is unchanged and they've both been raising their dividends over the last ten years.
So again those companies at a valuation basis are very inexpensive in our view.
After having gone through a -- period where essentially it it was very sideways and in fact and Johnson and Johnson's case that is our earnings -- the PE on the company.
Is much less than what the average has been over the last fifteen years so again valuations do matter.
In the long term and we're finding better opportunities in the very large companies.
Paul do you look at certain companies is proxies for the economy -- -- we talk a lot about the shippers FedEx UPS the rails.
As well even a visa and MasterCard do you look at those earnings reports and what they have to say on conference calls him one -- me as a proxy of things maybe getting better.
To a certain extent yes we do but we also take a look at some of the retailers and we take a look more at those companies that are tied much more closely to the consumer.
Because ultimately the consumer is going to be what's driving the economy.
Not so much business and industry so we'd like to see the consumer pick up a little bit.
Lot of the numbers that we're seeing related to the consumer are still that the consumer spending some.
But they're spending more what I would call pocket change at this point and that willing to really open their wallets up because -- stills constrained by their death situations then.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- Article was about double dip ice cream could always talk about -- my -- -- ice cream and what flavors are gonna get and so.
But you compared it -- -- their ice cream -- to the double dip recession can we come back to this are we gonna have one are are you seeing based on earnings results.
They were working our way an office.
I think we're going to be more low and slow.
Really the way we've looked -- -- this is more of a square root we've seen the decline we've seen the advance and now I think we flatten out where the economy is going to be in the in the slow growth.
And maybe even a contraction period.
-- over that probably the next three to four quarters nothing tremendous on the upside but.
At this point we're not ready to say yes we're gonna see -- double dip but there's certainly slow growth.
It is more likely the case.
Paul -- you look into look if you're an investor retail investor right now you are looking more long term you don't wanna be a day trail negated it out this insect did you look at that right now that might look appealing for somebody wants to get in.
Find the right stock in those sectors and hold onto it for a while.
Yeah I think through the areas that were really looking at because we're looking at a slow growth economy and earnings going to be generally slow growth as well you wanna see those that are more consistent.
Sales -- so you look at a lot of the consumers -- -- -- General Mills would be -- companies mentioned Johnson & Johnson earlier.
Some of the utilities have actually done fairly well here -- some -- the some of the Telecom site.
Which we have not seen in well over a year year and a half where these companies have have done very well and I think part of that reason is because of the very low interest rate environment.
And you've got investors very hungry for yield.
Which you can find at least in the in the utility sector.
Some -- well thanks so much for sharing your thoughts with us.
Nice to be with you -- the C championship finals he managing director of Dearborn partners out Chicago joins us.
Often thankfully none of the good ones.
Interesting because we we were talking earlier on Barney today and how.
If you're not buying Kellogg's and you're not buying the staples and are you started by media by and flat screen there I mean -- from Syria at a flat screen but you know not had gone from staples to discretionary right so -- is that -- seen that I announced I'm going to start buying into the.
A little Beige Book yesterday did tell us you know they break down they say they -- -- bank in his I want manufactures have things.
In terms of retail sales look -- retail -- stunning comeback but it wasn't the big ticket item.
Because they did see actually retreat in car sales this is -- we hear different things and we heard this morning on -- company -- -- are going to be pretty darn good this month when we get them.
I -- early part of next week for the month of July.
But yet here in the Beige Book cars retreating a little bit of big ticket items retreating a little -- people spending on small to -- and and then -- earnings from.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Indicating that.
Is it not so much on the consumer on non discretionary that maybe the money is going into discretionary spending and you're gonna show some of that in your mark I am -- later.
Is it generics.
I'm buying separate beliefs I'm not buying Clorox suites are you really and what I just we'll tell -- why not and it's confusing Steve -- say that the smarts.
-- -- -- -- Procter & Gamble Colgate-Palmolive.
These other companies have spent decades building brand loyalty of the break that mean I even like -- they've they've always looked tired and a lot rides.
That's funny because I will only by tonight for other things.
Leach now open -- which -- sleep they get a hold my clothes who cares who makes it that will think with mentally at that.
Well the mad about the news.com live Tracy Byrnes Chris Scott or.
Look on the strategy -- viewers out there you can now we're here -- every day at lunch just your business clintons know no vodka tonics and weren't there fox what -- -- left on the -- -- okay plus Susanne Connelly you said you and me yes and if I was there foxbusiness.com.
And that's and I.
Existing it isn't -- different races.
On the strategy room speeds at the Fox News Channel web -- and of course that at the end website where there last -- We are we get to about mortgage fraud.
Because it don't fence me quite frankly we went on -- -- mortgage industry and housing industry so much return apple closes earlier which I'm sure we'll get to.
-- -- -- LT Lafferty from Tampa is gonna join us now he's an attorney talking about the small mortgage Brothers in new FBI report out on it.
-- got to tell us LT had even commit mortgage fraud.
Well that's sort of the problem there's a lot of different ways to commit mortgage fraud.
You know as a former federal prosecutor and criminal defense lawyer -- -- is no specifically.
-- -- fraud offense it's really just the category of a bunch of different types of criminal offenses.
But the bottom line is all mortgage fraud is gonna be some kind of -- material false statement.
Used to obtain a loan or refinancing.
From a lending institution.
Now who is typically the victim because he can't victims on both sides of the story can you.
Well that that's a great question because most of the time people think of the victim as.
-- be in the lending institution you've got a loan from the lending institution and they claim to be the victim.
And certainly in all federal prosecutions.
They claim that the victim is the lending institution.
But I get a -- there's a lot of different victims here the homeowners themselves could be victims of the borrowers could be victims in.
Cases awaits the predators are preying on those individuals like for example mortgage foreclosure rescue scams.
But it is the real victims are the real victims are people just like you and me if you go out -- any suburban neighborhood.
And someone has a home there once they purchased with a legitimate loan application.
There -- the real victims because of the real estate boom that was fueled by these fraudulent mortgage loan applications.
So they're sitting in a house right now in which the real estate appraised value of the -- -- in the real estate taxes are assessed on inflated home values.
Then all their neighbors half the neighbors are foreclosed homes there's no one living in the home -- the real estate values are now -- pressed.
But you're paying high taxes on a home that has very little -- wanted to anymore.
But most importantly because of the new regulations in the new vigilance by the mortgage lenders.
You have no mobility.
You can't refinance your house you can't take advantage of the down market and move up in the market and buy a better house you can't even really move down in half very.
And save yourself.
-- so the real victims are people like you and I.
Right okay so it could be anything from me submitting false documentation to -- lender on the other side you know.
-- promising me a -- I never get or something extreme like that.
Another though that you listed some -- the this the you know that that the fraudulent schemes people are using today and the top of the list is reverse mortgages.
This is -- -- this is the Bane of my existence these things because they scare me so many people get into them.
Do you see a lot -- clearly you see a lot of scams in these things.
-- You did and of course I'm I'm down here in Florida we have a -- senior citizen population.
And the reverse mortgage the reverse mortgages scams really target -- senior city asked.
There an effort to get that equity -- -- your house especially for senior citizens who may need money.
And really the whole thing behind this reverse mortgage scam is as that you're targeting the vulnerable population.
Within your just employing some other standard mortgage fraud scheme such as false loan applications.
-- -- risk do you straw purchasers.
So it's just that you're targeting the senior citizen population.
Am guessing that Floyd any other CN states really -- we had the more problems.
In the mortgage.
Business the residential mortgage business that's probably where the greatest amount of fraud is being perpetrated I read about that.
Well it is true if you look at that FBI report or if you look at the various and lexis -- reports that have been now.
-- Florida has actually led the nation in mortgage fraud for fourth -- years according to lexis nexis.
And if you look at the FBI report Florida's right at the top and a lot of different types of mortgage fraud.
But there -- several other states that are right up there as well California.
And Nevada in particular Las Vegas.
Any area in which there was a real estate boom for five years ago was.
Certainly a lot of mortgage fraud that related to mortgage fraud that was in the category of when there was a high times of real estate down.
Now -- if you -- -- FBI reports what they're seeing is a different type of mortgage fraud.
Where is five years ago it was.
You know investment Ponzi schemes in loan originations schemes that was taken advantage of the -- vigilance by the lenders and review in the loan applications -- of the proverbial liars loans and now they're taking advantage of the depressed market if you will.
And so you may still have loan origination cases but instead of liars loans there actually using false documentation -- where you have the foreclosure schemes.
Actually -- new talk about those now -- it it didn't -- that.
You know you sit California Nevada Florida and I got -- -- in there as well those -- the states that saw the biggest -- they now are -- in the largest amount of foreclosures.
So what exactly -- some of the foreclosure scams that people need to be aware of.
Well let the perfect example is -- you you can't get out of your house is so that goes back to the fact that you're the real victim -- -- you can't.
Get out of the house in which you you're playing inflated taxes on or high mortgage on.
Soon you know your options are very limited.
City you'll see signs all over the place you're driving down the road and you'll see -- this -- need help with your house -- closure rescued yeah and these homeowners with good and they're in desperate need of some assistance and when you're desperate.
You'll call those numbers on that sign.
And what these people promise you is what you need to be careful is there's nothing for free -- never has been and that's one of the old age adage.
Political promise you is is if you sell the house to me or you sell it to a straw buyer -- has good credit.
Will allow you to stay in the house paying rent at a reduced rate.
And then we'll promise we'll sell a house back to you when you recover or when the market recovers.
The problem is -- -- ever really happens what happens is in the straw buyer of the person perpetrating a fraud takes out a new loan for a higher value.
Takes out the equity and you're stuck with a houseful.
It would you're -- you're -- with no house -- he didn't get the house that it's got multiple mortgages on in -- -- worse -- situation.
So they have yet is thank you sir we appreciate the info that's good stuff last.
Thank you -- -- -- Lafferty is an attorney -- white involves joining us from Tampa talking about this FBI report the mortgage fraud is running rampant there's a backlog right now has.
-- on about certainly in the sand states Florida Nevada Arizona California it's going to be worse.
Than anywhere else because there was so many -- so many people are desperate need in trouble that they're looking for any way to get out and they're easier -- for fraud.
But it's easy rate when you're in a bubble when there's like so much of that bubble up -- down there's so much going on -- -- the creative mind starts going I know and it's hard to enforce -- it's hard to really deal with a -- these things out there is inevitably that.
Enforcement is behind the April yet -- there right now if they could break.
We'll be right back.
Welcome back -- dot com live Chris got a Tracy Byrnes.
We're gonna go out to Peter Barnes and ADC but before we do I was just on -- -- -- break that Peter -- viability -- sent a -- out noting that the recent market pullback.
Britain's -- key it started when European markets closed they all they'll close at their lows of today are market's pullback as a result.
And as Chris noted we're starting -- bounce off that a little -- there was also some big selling it as you noted Colgate.
Kellogg and minimize in the big names we saw some big -- -- as well on the market down.
But -- -- is following this SEC is secrecy lack thereof whatever you wanna call it.
The neighbors around yesterday on Barney -- So distraught about it -- it -- and I was never I was distraught about the -- about the deficit than the CBO report on Friday euros yes.
I was just trying to provoke me into doing it again on this that money thing and just just that.
I edited out now -- right with the world.
There's an hour that it does not and it got a good every now and then is that the -- on paper anyway -- so what's going on with this SEC staff.
Well you know we're just trying to figure out where this legislation let language came from and the Dodd-Frank bill the financial regulation reform bill -- its.
Pretty obviously came from the SEC the SEC told us that it had about forty so called technical provisions technical corrections that -- it.
In in various bills over the last year or so and that this was one of them.
And I talked to.
That we're targeted to Freedom of Information Act lawyers.
Who go to court to try and help news organizations like ours.
Get this kind of information and so far the consensus seemed to be -- that congress overreached on this particular piece of Bob provision in the in the bill.
That it could be used really to deny access and to protect papers and information and secrets at the SEC for pretty much any thing.
So we today have two Republican congressman -- allies have Californians Spencer Bachus of Alabama both ranking members on their respective committees saying they're going to introduce legislation.
To repeal this language and Kevin Goldberg and of FYA attorney who works with newspaper industry.
Told me this morning that barring that this could.
Be face court challenges the courts could narrow this down re interpreter or even throw it out and that would force congress to look at it too.
Sort of -- this another example of why pass something that you really haven't had a chance to really look the real me 2300 page report and we know.
That there -- going to be several instances where somebody finds something later on says hey wait a minute that's unconstitutional.
And and then -- -- be challenged in court.
Well there's going to be a lot of lawsuits.
Over -- over this.
Over this over the bill in general I just so happens that this one.
Is is Ruben has come close to home -- hitting close to home for us in the media business in the in the news business.
And and actually affects a pending.
-- proceeding we have with the SEC.
That Adam Shapiro and others have been working -- working on.
To try to get documents from the FCC more documents about Bernie Madoff and Bernie and -- Robert Allen Stanford as you know inspector general of the SEC.
Just -- the agency heavily criticized the agency part just botching those investigations.
And you know if you're conspiracy there is -- you believe that the SEC.
Got this provision into the bill so that it wouldn't have to put out this kind of embarrassing information in the future.
Yeah you know first kiss me about this is that.
They sneak this stuff through.
Think that in note as Chris pointed out eventually some of their reading and then -- -- -- caught and then we spent all this money to try to get it out we got Darrell ice at -- leading insurance saying this is not gonna stand.
I'm gonna fight this but it's the dollars that are just being thrown out the window here.
And well -- -- and M and more to the point Tracy it's our dollars here.
At a Fox News and fox business for example because.
Whereas the as the previous exemptions were a more clear cut.
This one is as more general according to Kevin Goldberg about among others that it requires us and other news organizations.
Now to go out and have to spend spend an enormous amount and legal fees.
In court to try to get this turned back to try to get judges convince judges.
To allow us to get access to these very important documents listen I.
Got some of this these documents myself.
Under FOIA request from the Treasury Department in which we learned that back during the height of the crisis.
The the Bush Administration considered putting AIG.
Now that -- that information -- came from emails that we obtained through a Freedom of Information Act request if you -- call at the time they said bankruptcy was not an option with AIG it would cause a systemic collapse well it turns out they were seriously considering it.
So we were able to get the truth and and and get them right reporting on that you know thanks to the Freedom of Information Act -- if we have.
These limits or restrictions you know it's going to restrict public the public's right -- know.
Thanks Peter and -- getting mad enough and I'm really gets done.
Totally yeah I got into this business.
And you so grade feeder lines that are down in DC -- getting -- of them on this -- with these so ridiculous.
In the you know finreg bill about this about the SEC.
-- -- -- and they're kind of corporate profits just Goodyear's -- around China gets up there that's not gonna get on the YouTube Google over profits and you know the.
Public profits -- their money list.
On right now we're getting all worked up.
The market is better off than we were five minutes ago so that's a reason to smile right -- down 77 points threw down triple digits is the moment -- -- -- as far as you said wrote a note saying.
A lot of this movement is because we -- -- that -- -- on the European markets that sort of -- this little little -- we may have come off of that stands little bit.
Humble we're moving is still to the downside -- what some with moving this market there.
I had to pick Exxon only because it's it's the story of the day -- bars it's tax bill if for nothing else the taxes this company pays.
Interestingly enough -- son.
Earnings beat and revenue fell -- and that is not typical for this company.
Eight usually misses earnings but -- on the top line.
It reported seven point seven billion dollars in earnings this quarter on revenue of -- 92 point five billion.
But -- income tax is this quarter were five billion.
Sales tax is seven billion other taxes and hit nine billion these -- paid their fair share.
23% of revenue went back to mogul Sam.
And solid just sheer numbers of mind -- had done over ninety billion dollars in revenue for the quarter.
And -- that makes -- by the his second largest company in the world on revenue only Wal-Mart is bigger.
And that's -- at Chevron so this does sort of -- into Chevron's while ConocoPhillips yesterday's that are pretty good week for energy names the big integrated -- Not living to your point I don't know and a very adamant and again -- -- is it this is the DP -- playing into this at all and the guilty by association.
I'm not seeing a little -- like those names continued his solid dividend to go along with -- and because they are guilty by association right now -- up 9% second quarter profit surged 76%.
Is a provider of data acquisition communications products up went back higher revenue better margins the expectations in millions now.
-- is Rick.
-- now it's -- -- in Brunswick I think bowling night what do you think aligning bully and -- he's using the -- I didn't I don't think about but I did.
My uncle out of Brunswick.
-- Colombo I was a kid so I do know it I just don't think about it blew away expectations of people apparently are voting.
And -- did he say in the stresses it in this would have -- questionnaire you income and you know I'm I've fallen in discretionary spending and end up front certainly bowling.
They listen discretionary -- boating voting because -- you gotta do it.
But they saw their sales in their boat segment more double OK -- Yeah okay cancer isn't and 66 -- -- -- LCS and 500 leader today Sinclair profit grew 12%.
This is virtualization.
Infrastructure software company they posted higher revenue in.
All across the board and they beat expectations now citrix and my next one Newport -- -- married over the belly comment that minute.
Re mind you ten seconds Newport handily topped second quarter.
Everything -- And it's an -- residual components instruments used in semiconductors.
Also aerospace research they sit orders increased across the board margins up.
Bullish forecast so here's an I have about a comment earlier he said.
-- -- money now the infrastructure yeah.
It's time now I don't know by by so much that it's time to please the car.
Because as you said that it would not expecting sales and look we thought we thought it was time to place the card to use them -- -- still -- -- -- But maybe the infrastructure stuff has to be replaced right and it's a three seed and is citrix.
Words you're infrastructure software and we can start to -- stuff like that replaced -- semiconductor stuff -- is that may -- where -- Tennessee.
I got passive -- put it some pilots is steadily quit.
Up to date -- pumps valves things like that -- -- -- talk about cars and and planes to and also by the way bridges and mean things like that that that's all part of everybody holding on -- things a little bit longer than we used to and now it's time in this country where we've got to start.
While facing all these things up and maybe that'll help us get this thing thank you very much Tracy and Suzanne Daley is here -- this welcome to show James.
NASA gutsy thing to asset management all right what do you make of this market went -- about 65 points looks like we've we've come off the -- a little bit but it's -- -- seems like a very nervous.
I think given the rally that we've had since July 1.
Actually the consolidation that we've enjoyed the last few days is actually -- sign of strength.
With the velocity of return 9% in a couple weeks three weeks.
The fact that we haven't sold off sharper than this I think is indicative of the fact that when the rally has been broadly.
Despised you know fairly under invested with them than the macro backdrop surround in the bureau in some the other developments.
-- that drove the panic -- mini panic that we had in in May and June.
I think a lot of people under invested.
Then I think that that they've been.
Dismayed to get back into the market dipping their toes in the last few weeks or so for consolidating.
All employees then for a big move up or down.
I think that likely up first look we've got a lot of seasonal strength into the second third fourth week of August.
Outside of that were a lot more worried we think that the market's gonna become a lot more bifurcated at that point where you have.
The economy -- -- -- slow down dramatically as we head into the second half of this year.
So areas that are more industrial sensitive you know where their earnings right now look really good.
That's looking backwards that's that's the second quarter that the economies were basically baked in the -- to slow down.
Significantly on a global basis to -- industrial sectors we go to the back half of the year.
And we think with the earnings revisions going higher that -- in and that economically sense -- industrial sector that there's a lot of vulnerabilities we had in the second half of the year.
So that's kind of contradictory then to what -- I was saying earlier that you think investors such as accidents slowdown not.
Eat itself up so to speak in fixing things and building new things whether -- -- handle -- on on how narrowly defined industrials I think that.
So that has to do China and how China responds to their slowdown.
Whether policy initiatives there moved -- words stimulus away from.
The tightening that they've done that to try and -- -- real estate bubble in the large cities.
So we think some of the infrastructure players are actually pretty solid because with the slow -- the fact that the jobs -- probably gonna -- war again.
-- had to the back half of the year.
Whether it's quantitative easing part two or some additional round of stimulus and an election year which wouldn't be all that shocking.
We think that they they're gonna have a do over whereas the first stimulus didn't have a lot of infrastructure and it.
And as you guys were discussing shortly ago we're certainly in dire need of some of it in this country -- it was too.
Modified stimulus to probably targeted more towards.
Infrastructure and and capital goods so in some areas that -- selectively look engineering firms and and things like that it could be opportunity but.
Floral print some more spending that's -- stimulus one should have been targeted very much right well you you can spend pretty easily when you're putting the money to spend four in Korea.
-- -- -- And and that's what we expect.
There was a comment on the wires -- shortly ago about.
Governor talking about deflation.
And if you look at who Ben -- Bernanke -- and and his writings in his career and his actions.
They are not going to let deflation occur.
Or at least they think they can prevent so putting money and we think quantitative easing part two is is probably in the pipeline that's.
In in the -- -- it's tragic when we're focused.
A lot on the commodity side.
And things that.
Should benefit from money -- -- -- him on a gold -- on -- you mentioned absolutely and and it's amazing to us with with -- -- being in -- -- bull market's been -- ten years in a -- Compound that 15% a year.
That people -- -- very under invested not only.
Investors but central banks and you look outside the major European and US central banks.
Central banks like Brazil India -- less than 5% of the currency reserves in gold whereas the US and Western Europe are well over 30%.
So a lot of the midsize and smaller size precious metals miners have lagged significantly.
That they have growth profiles in the for productions gonna ramp up like him on.
Mine -- another one that we don't like a lot.
As they grow their production next few years -- of gold is stagnant.
They could have tremendous returns on capital and gold goes up you've got that call option.
It's significant upside in in some of these miners.
There's no doubt about -- ExxonMobil.
As need be guilty crisis -- you feel the same way it seem about diamond offshore it's down.
Is -- guilty because the BP mess.
I think that.
Guilt by association there's no question that there's some short term impact their business.
-- recent earnings call it's the -- to discuss that.
They've redeployed some -- to Africa and and Australian.
We think that a lot of that has to do with the short term nature of a lot of investors.
With the job situation like -- -- -- in the second half the year again it's an election year it's not going to be too far -- until we start talking about the next presidential cycle you know.
Help us all please when that starts up again.
Is job's going to be a big factor and with the Gulf Coast suffering with this moratorium.
We think people war.
Probably being shortsighted in thinking that that more -- going to be around a long time.
So and and -- off shores moved even prior to BP -- they've been soaring to diversify out of the golf.
The point where a lot of their revenues in in Africa now and South America.
You like iPad grains as well the -- ETF.
Calm to and a median sorry but a lot of you wanna move to push forward and why you don't like forward to your final of the autism with a lot of those well right well first wolf forward.
From a geographic breakdown perspective does not as global -- as General Motors is known domestic.
Auto production James got a much better business overseas in places like China.
So were the major growth in unit sales occurring for word isn't as competitive.
Now they may improve that it's certainly been well managed.
Relative to the domestic competition but as we saw with -- the bailout of GM and what.
The administration did in some would argue could be creative with contract law with the -- -- The oil companies -- run for the unions and for the retiree right tensions and.
Quickly because we have to run -- you have 2012 leaps on these things those -- long term put options so that means in 2012 you think the stock's going to be lower than it is today so.
Sometime between now and then they've got to UAW contract comes up.
So the contracts the up and a lot of people are talking about that in GM's gonna come out of bankruptcy.
They're gonna have an IPO and the government owns a lot of large portion of -- so.
We wouldn't want to be competing against a strong balance sheet and company that is owned by the federal government.
Do you really -- so much to be honest -- -- manager Ibrahim -- strategy funds.
Leave some forward.
That's been happening avenue that we -- -- -- down a rich Edson now rich let's -- time.
Looking at the future of Social Security it should make it to a 102.
Years old right now it's just turned 75 years old and you've actually got some agreement.
Among Democrats and Republicans a number of lawmakers they say they want to raise the retirement age and for younger Americans to seventy inaction extended that we're looking at social security and believe it or not.
So -- security really isn't the big problem it's Medicare and Medicaid the health care bill.
Was supposed to slow the growth rate of the cost of insurance and the question is whether it's done that or not and if it has done it.
Most of the studies out there -- hasn't done effectively we still need to do so more curving of the increases in health care costs in fact.
Medicare is supposed to go bankrupt by mean the end of this decade I believe so.
When you talk about our long term deficit problems the short term stuff is at his stimulus spending and we're we're racking up deficits and a -- and half a year.
The long term stuff is the aging of the baby boomers taking care of them that health care spending we're gonna have to do another health care bill over and solve this problem.
Yeah you know rich the other thing too heavy it was really oppose this because threes 65 is an arbitrary number anyway.
And in one generation seventy would be -- -- just viewed as the -- so where's the real opposition coming from in terms of moving their retirement age or back.
That's right and it's sixty fives and you 55 -- will retire at seventy.
Hey you know when you look at it now it's it's liberals and labor unions.
They call it a disaster.
Because if you're raising the retirement -- essentially cutting benefits and so they say that.
The average working American needs that benefit problem is we just can't pay for it so their solution is to not let the tax cuts expire.
For those making 250000 dollars a year -- more the problem of course is that we look at all these problems.
And we seen the solution as raising taxes on families making 250000 dollars a year will we if we just were to do that now and keep.
Spending levels at the same.
We still have a deficit because -- not enough money at the top so.
You know most federal budget people who analyze a federal -- -- you've got to do a mix of both you've got a decent cutting and you've got a decent tax hiking and that's probably in our future.
I would she do some drastic cuts and and and doesn't seem as though congress has the appetite to do that right now meet its amazing that you've gotten little.
Basically the leaders from the democratic and Republican Party to actually agree on a solution that.
Yes Social Security as it stands is unsustainable and yes we have to raise the retirement age.
Somewhere down the road but even the leadership saying that doesn't mean that it's going to be a shoo in for congress to go hadn't passed that there hasn't been much agreement.
On anything really congress recently.
Yes you can't find me now I think like.
The -- will depend -- -- -- you know why I think it's old because you before that -- -- you don't want your route.
New -- and still -- my portfolio our buddy Andy he's -- but today is it depends on your job and he -- firemen and end up of police men and women.
All we want them to retire earlier we do we we complain that they retire early and -- -- had this long pension but.
But they've my buildings on fire -- -- -- some of the breakdown a door I don't need the age 85 year old dude trying to break down that -- -- -- me you know.
And lessons jackal lane I don't you got off the life you're right is exactly why did you do that yeah absolutely and if you know you -- there are.
There's solutions to its not just raising the retirement age you could be a mix of solutions that Congressional Budget Office came -- in this study and said that what you can do is.
Instead of raising the age you could possibly make payments smaller at 65 and then they ramp up as you get older there's also the possibility of of raising taxes there's there are other different ways that you can try to extend the programs like.
Again it goes bankrupt the trust fund goes bankrupt and 2037.
Solid we have all the time in the world by -- there are other solutions that may be out there.
Medicare Medicaid that's that's.
An impending disaster and that's probably -- congress should -- -- -- -- to save Social Security is the easy fix that we put it next Medicare Medicaid.
It really is yeah you're right I say regularly raises -- -- -- -- gets a B twelve shot -- daily.
And they got a good humor to save him but I think that's a cheap alternative.
I didn't think parents.
Thanks -- its rich -- you does not need to be twelve -- you -- I don't I want out of any.
Yet B twelve.
Honestly and I I'm so.
I'll let you thought how would that Elian to say I doubt that I -- I say -- where but if he was working at seven.
-- hill Billy could -- you could.
You know him he might you would like it but I could.
You know actually does he still does do some -- -- am I think it's seven artist caught basically sitting there relaxing enjoying my grandchildren you don't have.
I really he's got eight of them just -- from me will be right back.
Think that the that he isn't final.
-- -- -- still we're down right now 82 points on the Dallas we've kind of been floating around this level for much of the show we were down double digits right at the start of the show and look like we were actually you know really heading downward and in the that you're coming back and now it's kind of -- -- -- -- -- -- Rob -- is here president of -- done CEO sees me.
And president of guide on performance solutions in studio talk about the SpinRite stuff it's not going away but in particular it's gonna hurt our community banks isn't.
Well yeah and then the analogy that you hear a lot even some of the Wall Street Journal articles is it's thirty times more complicated and sarbanes -- remember a lot of community -- part of sarbanes Oxley was all -- -- them.
-- when you think about their ability to cope with that.
In JPMorgan Chase announced I think they have a hundred teams that are working on this thing -- community bank and then have the resources to take on -- thanks so yes can be very complicated very expensive.
Community banks by their definition are operating in the community and a lot of people asked Tracy -- houses -- affected you and I because.
If there are so worried you know on in their daily lives -- so worried about too big to fail and Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and all these other things they're worried about.
Tomorrow or next week and actually when I go to the bank how is my life going to change how would change for their customers well I I think a lot of things you're gonna see is that.
There ability to compete going to be challenged because the cost of dealing with legislation the fact that someone might get sucked up by some of the bigger banks -- Community bank population that's available to you might disappear.
And that's gonna impact employment it's gonna impact the ability for them to service their clients the way that they are used to because -- Margin compression if things like that so it's an expensive -- there's been a lot like going on form.
There inevitably going to have to -- -- eat you mentioned -- exactly.
Many small businesses to hire someone specifically to enforce the sarbanes I'm -- -- going to have to see that again.
We I'm they have these things are eventually -- right now know -- they can -- this.
You know I I think probably what they're gonna be over reliant on contractors but it goes to some of the things he -- me in the media lately where they're probably gonna get bought because -- just on the ability to keep up.
And that's gonna put the bank at risk and so they're gonna have to find a partner.
-- white -- Mike -- gonna help mount them.
The way this gets becomes enforced I guess the law becomes -- -- -- B -- and as well whether you talk to -- banks they tell you about the huge.
You know banks that we talked with a woman Saxon world we don't even know that there's so much we don't know that's the play and this is well.
That a lot of nervous people out there -- the -- thinking well certainly it the folks I'm talking to all the time are very nervous about because they don't know what it means to them at this point there's a lot of definition has to come out yet from LA -- We have a whole agency -- men started up yet this -- had a huge impact especially talk consumer that's where the community banks focus is on the consumer side.
So they're going to be very heavily impacted by -- -- the nobody knows what it has.
The other side of that is a lot of times when you start at these new agencies -- these new.
The things that come and it's very complicated it's far there's a lot of learning as you go they're learning on the job.
They're going to be -- this thing is they go so when you make it up and you -- you're you know there's lots of opportunity to make a -- -- Absolutely and it was solid all day and you know the mortgage the -- programming on thousands and they are making that up as they went to they didn't and the rules.
So -- back to chris' point.
As the consumer coming into these banks what do I need to do do I need to be more diligent and make sure it's my statements and isn't that simple as it can affect me down there.
Well is that -- just to discuss this -- very same topic you know that there's not a lot that is gonna help the consumer be a better consumer consumers need to be good consumers all time -- financial products so.
The sketch this morning was -- credit card reform and the fact that there's some loopholes in that legislation as well.
Nobody is gonna protect us consumers -- gonna take care of themselves we didn't all of a sudden take the cereal box.
I calorie counting thing in -- -- sudden turn -- into financial regulation and how we report.
And disclose information so they've got to figure out how to read the fine print for.
More Portland got answering questions what what's in it for me -- mired interest rates what are the implications what I'm going to be feed for what -- my fees for -- -- -- -- fort -- -- you know we know that so much is unknown about this moving forward are these community banks doing anything right now what do you suggest that they do to at least.
Try and prepare themselves for the unknown that's coming in the next few years yet mostly what we're -- -- -- figure out how you did today -- the things you're doing -- today.
Try and understand those so that you understand as the legislation or the regulation gets written.
What are the implications to the way that I do reg -- what are the implications the way I view this regulation one of the implications idea of the way that I -- with -- consumers in this way.
So they understand.
That you can compare what you do today with the what's different about the Melanie -- begin to make adjustments verses that knew him a complete surprise -- shows up and now caught flat footed not.
Right for its going to be -- around and our highest slice it can be tough.
Simons president CEO of -- and performance solutions thanks for being with us thank -- is ongoing conversation excellent good to see and I'm gonna see if that's.
-- -- -- -- And we come back.
We're -- -- -- call -- -- weren't looking old pizza.
-- Welcome back to this show.
Chris cutter and Tracy Byrnes review you Jean Karr is where this founder and president of page on its technology -- -- -- the disease in that your.
Com all right let's talk about something -- real quick.
That we thought it would entrepreneurs all the time and the club with a new product you see -- -- she see an opportunity out there.
You've come up with a product Ford nonprofits is software product for nonprofits -- -- will develop that and and -- -- telling us why you chose the nonprofit side.
Sure so we not only work with nonprofit organizations but we specialize in -- sector of the nonprofit arena which is the arts and cultural sector.
Which is different than the rest of the nonprofit world because arts and culture organizations are actually hybrids.
They have a mission and they wanna produce art -- but they also have to sell to the general public like any entertainment company like sports or movies to him.
So they've got to compete in the real business world and they also have to compete.
By getting people to donate that got two missions going on them it's the most for profit of the nonprofit market and consequently.
These organizations need the kind of software.
That gives them the ability to compete in the marketplace even though they don't have the resources because -- non profits isn't it fitting software.
Don't we run we are running at CRM software customer relationship management.
We built in partnership with Salesforce.com.
-- dollar company yeah in the salesforce foundation which has a goal of helping nonprofits by giving away their software platform at a very very reduced price that we.
Have taken -- salesforce system.
Modified it and built applications specifically for nonprofit cultural organizations to allow them.
To take donations so subscriptions and tickets on line and run -- day to day operations.
In the same way that a fortune 500 company would run even though their budget thirteen.
But what -- -- your pack over the fortune 500 and is it because it's cheaper.
They'll -- good nonprofit organizations we work with today sadly.
Are working in the 197 today.
PCs with a ticketing system here fundraising system -- -- he can't run their business efficiently and when you are selling a ticket.
Our colleagues at the New York for the Monica great client of ours their goal is not only to sell it -- it.
But then turn that ticket buyer into a donor.
Even to -- you can combine your ticketing your fund raising your communications your customer service -- nurture a relationship with that patron over time.
You can't can't converse a conversion from get them in the -- once get them to come back.
Get them to donate at the end of the year you're building a relationship and in our business it's called audience development -- so -- technology.
-- our product is called patron manager of -- And it allows an organization to take all of the touch point with that customer put them on a single web based system powered by salesforce.
And run their business in the same way that a fortune 500 company would.
And not at nearly at the same -- in fact our organizations that sell tickets don't pay for the software at all.
A revenue model is based on -- -- -- they.
We charged between one -- four dollars on up on the face value of the ticket paid for by the cup has is service -- That's nervously modest service they get -- the organizations if you're non profit you're not paying for the software at all.
And you've got suddenly this tremendous technology firepower that -- will bring you from the sort of 1970s and eighties to the -- 21 century but it is.
Little little by infineon because they get to charge more for the tickets so in a recessionary period -- to say you know what I was charging fifteen but it did for your surcharges are -- consumers can paid answered very -- charge whatever it is eighteen or sixteen -- the -- -- to say I know my cousin who will pay a little bit more.
Yes -- -- most of the time with the switching cost most of the time they're switch confronting other system.
That there birdie charge and protect your feet has -- -- -- -- -- -- -- rightness of going from a scandal of ticketing system.
To a completes the Arab system of the customers paying with that do you have obviously a new -- on -- -- in an arts capital the United States gives small did it because I was well to to be clear of the philharmonic uses our product which is -- -- L.
They don't need our product because our product is designed for small and -- such organization.
80% of the nonprofit cultural market our organizations of under five million.
So our focus is to power those organizations there's some 30000 of them out there.
Names that are like the Colorado philharmonic to -- and that the Colorado Springs philharmonic and the anti theater in the Greenwich choral society.
Those little ones that produce the vast number of events in this country even though Carnegie Hall in New York for moniker in the news all the time -- access.
-- seven inning you've obviously been in the -- world for awhile now culture finder dot com you founded your musician.
He's an abandonment Friday night and you're sitting I suppose I made the mistake of going to dual aired in high school and it's not a -- -- -- -- -- and got down there president -- technology thank you so much what presidents I think he's more like I have by the way -- agents technology dot com's attended love supporting units is well.
And I also love supporting.
Pizza -- is -- to -- time -- -- -- time.
Just -- -- quickly -- pizza -- lowering their prices to compete with it.
Domino's did you know I never buy a pizza pizza consistent -- expensive so now maybe I well although let me ask you this.
Why do you stuffed crust you also wouldn't buy pizza pizza because you at least work in New York City and there's no reason I think I pizza pizza when -- here and that's it.
We -- -- -- I'll see tomorrow night and in Hungary and it appears they have it -- stuffed crust and I don't.
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