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Twenty dollar a barrel oil will put a nasty dent in any global economic recovery that's the warning from David -- Columbia management chief market strategist.
He should know 355.
Billion dollars in assets under management.
And a winning streak when it comes to picking stocks on this show.
David looking at all of these issues and and let's really look at what's happening right now overseas in the Middle East how worried are you about the situation.
Well I'm -- wait and see if this persists I mean that's really the the problem for the global recovery if if oil stays high in my hub by -- I mean a hundred.
Dollars a barrel or higher for a long period of time.
That's basically going to chip the global recovery by at least several tenths of a percentage point at a point.
In time what we can't really afford it in the US the consumers just now starting to come back on the market make a bigger.
And all of a sudden we get this it's just gonna derailed the other thing is as well for markets.
-- -- is it just starting to come back in the last four weeks is the first time we've seen inflows into domestic equities.
The last time this happened we got the flash crash now we get it.
Then -- soil so who knows do you like a certain segment right now whether it is emerging markets are staying away from those and going somewhere a little safer.
Well I still think the global recovery is on track.
I'm told proven otherwise.
So I like the growth in emerging markets -- like the companies -- nine -- -- can sell their products to them in the industrial space -- interior space.
But this is a potential problem for that scenario so we'll just have to wait and say OK now we're very interested in your picks because -- last ones went gangbusters just a beautiful performance for most of your picks.
What you like now.
What we -- -- eclectic -- group hit today the first one is UPS but they're probably getting -- today because of the higher energy.
Prices -- consent you know what to pick UPS when it every time oil goes higher.
They've got trucks they've -- jets that they have to fly their thing sensitive to crude prices yes clearly but but also.
The -- force sensitive to the global recovery reason I say I think you still want track you know until further notice.
This isn't gonna help them in the short -- down two and a half percent to that.
-- So they're gonna I think.
You know gonna continue to -- -- fluctuate relative to with the price of oil in the short run in the long run.
If the recovery does regain its footing oil comes back down a little bit.
This very leverage to this recovery so we like them they're trading at a decent multiple what else and good earnings.
I Gilead Sciences.
The stock that's really done nothing reflected for a little while it's kind of move sideways for a while.
But that we think some of the concerns about generics are little bit -- done.
They're starting to rebuild the pipeline and in that position just today for example to help out with that cause.
And then lastly.
Another -- -- -- Major chipset provided full -- the F Smartphone industry.
Which we think is going to double its market penetration here in the US along only 20% market penetration we think it's gonna go to forty.
OK so folksy let's Qualcomm Gilead and UPS and here's why you need to listen to him let's look at big -- -- the last time you were here.
You like names like caterpillar and he also had picked Freeport Mack Brown the big.
Minor Verizon John you're looking at caterpillar since she picked it up 13%.
Do you still own -- you still look at you add to a position to take some off the table.
We still like it we select all of Phillips suffered from two different reasons again the first Arab group is leverage to the infrastructure best story in in mostly -- Russell and America and -- and the rest of them are our dividend place.
So we still like both of them but again.
They've both incumbent upon the continuation of this global economic recovery of oil goes to 120 dollars a barrel.
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