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Talk a lot about jobs over the next hour which is obviously huge topic in this country the president.
Making a couple different stops today talking up to union workers AFL CIO and an off.
-- in Ohio that GM plant and then Ben Bernanke made a speech yet again today on the well I guess the recovery and and how we're gonna get back from this and also kind of the -- pat on the back for the last year.
We can't sort of reception he probably thought was most likely over -- -- technically though that we're on the road to recovery Center -- here ended that statement right there where.
The recession is technically over we -- men may not actually feel it for a while the economy may still feel feel weak that's a cleansing the Fed Chairman.
I think most economists agree on that that the recession is technically over the debate is whether or not go back into another recession and it's.
Feel W -- -- supposed to Revere you or whatever else anyway fossil ought to come on that and then we have this great advice for you all later on in the show about how you can deal with your knowing coworkers.
And it's just kicked out of twice a club didn't mind back yeah -- do you wanted to get it out of my right -- on like this on my anti Italian what it is -- so I guess you want.
One myself because Connell escorting them that's our wallets because you want to keep me away that's a good tease us anyway so the fear chemicals and Montgomery -- -- And it's that's coming up later in the show and so we called -- Michael starts us off this afternoon chief market strategist said deadbeat TIG out of Philly Mike good to see you again thank -- for thank you for coming on.
And let's talk about you know this is I guess for what it's worth the actual anniversary of Roland.
Lehman Brothers failed one year ago today the bankruptcy filing came into some people are looking at.
The last year Ben Bernanke included among them.
Made -- speech says -- says recession is over we move on from here slow recovery how do you see thinks.
You know it's interesting because.
I think this you know and -- like this is important because a lot of people measure.
You know where the stock market is where their personal investing isn't and you know how they're Allegheny and the future.
You know having seen you know this event occur a year ago gives -- enough time to have digested it reacted to it.
So so it's it's really interesting because I think when it happened we all knew would get worse I don't think you don't realize how much -- we get.
But -- also -- expect this to be the place that we're in today which you know we've seen a lot of improvement and I think the way investors ago look at the market is they're gonna say well.
You know how the next twelve months and twelve months and -- -- the next you're gonna look.
It's going to be better in the past one and odds are it's going to and then you know the prices of stock -- -- say well where stocks relative to a year ago.
And you know big CS and 500 to approximately 1517%.
Lower than it was only themselves.
So they'll probably see you know it if it provides an inch sting you know entry point or.
You know for people -- been afraid of the marketers to start investing again and you know for a long term purposes.
You're just still you know you -- at a market -- -- gone nowhere in eleven years.
Yeah I can't in Virginia brings up -- good point is about seasonality ten is saying and that -- -- until about Christmas and it'll probably start to slide again time to Lincoln in town.
And you see seasonality be a factor retail sales -- as a factor in hiring until.
But it talk about that a little bit later in the program what are your thoughts on that he is -- you twelve month -- what do you think about.
That -- going it's -- the holiday period that they look okay pretty okay and then next year the first quarter is going to be very important.
-- -- -- -- -- -- you know I'm I'm less focused on the seasonality of it.
But the fact that the economy we had very well you know we obviously an awful recession.
On the will be the longest one in the post war -- But did you -- these economy stabilized on it's own before the stimulus spending really hit the system were only getting into the the portion.
No one -- biggest -- criticisms of the stimulus program was that it was so back downloaded and was gonna take effect so late.
And we're getting into that portion of time weren't about to start taking effect and sport and about to go out to the economy.
So the combination of that all the Fed liquidity out there pump are hitting an economy that's already stabilized.
So I think over the next you know 23 quarters six to nine months.
This video you know a lot of improvement that some it's going to be just fundamental improvement but a lot of it's gonna be based on the stimulus and you won't really know how.
Whether it's it's gonna take couldn become self reinforcing the economy and in 2010 tell -- what it's -- and what I'm trying to.
They're no go ahead and finish that thought.
Sorry nudges his say so right now -- you know I think it.
The markets and a sweet spot for investors because you're gonna have these positive influences playing out the next six to six months to sell.
Right and I was gonna talk about the idea that -- we get some people we talk about the national.
-- deficit and what have you that say well -- you.
If the economy stabilized on it's on here we are trying to spend all this money to prop it up and a lot of that money hasn't even -- its way into the system.
Then when at what point do we start having a conversation about when it's time to pull back.
Government officials -- Geithner.
Bob -- Bernanke Larry Summers off pretty much and give an indication that they are -- Much less likely to even think about that anytime in the near future are they right or should we be talking.
About -- taking the foot off the gas a little bit sooner than they seem to be indicating that they're gonna talk about it.
You know I think I -- -- is -- the policy makers and -- and the approach they're taking a sense of this is Ben globally we said the worst in the longest and and and deepest postwar recession.
So you do not want to -- a risk having a double dip in such a weak environment.
So they're gonna err on the side of caution keep that liquidity out there.
Where the big -- is no criticisms will -- is the first place it shows up in financial markets.
Has yet big rallies in stocks and commodities and whatnot.
But the fact that you're still looking at it again and unemployment rate you know approaching 10% and probably gonna hit 10%.
And you you need to give it time for -- you know the stuff to take take effect within the real economy.
And started you know helping bring that unemployment rate down and then at that point you know you can be a lot more sure to -- monetary policy later on.
You know we're so focused this week on the one year anniversary of the Lehman collapse it's many say really is done the beginning of what -- the apex.
The financial crisis since this kind of turmoil -- -- though you anniversaries aren't quite believe my wanna look at October 7.
-- 2008 why -- we look at October 7.
Bomb school October 7 you know basically I didn't you know.
Good after Lehman -- we had a big collapse in the market and going forward.
About -- next month.
That's the time we broke to roughly a thousand or broke below 1000 -- we're gonna start seeing a lot of stocks start making new 52 week highs because.
They will basically mean you know.
Anyone who's bought stocks in the past year will be up money.
Because we will obviously be higher -- levels we were a year ago and that's a big key because investors -- are up money in stocks or investment positions.
Are less likely take profits and there that you know a lot of cases -- especially the Smart people has sex while I was able buy stocks some of the best levels.
It you know instead of 1012 years you know I should be in a rush to sell them right away.
Do you think that'll give the rally legs in Seoul when do you think committee goes into it next year that at some point them through that logic are now it.
The -- incident from my point of -- it does because they take that in combination with the stimulus program hitting hitting the economy.
And the feds the Fed being hasn't.
To withdraw liquidity -- you have all these -- positive factors that are gonna combined.
And hit the economy the same time and just it should create up a good environment.
And now doesn't mean we're gonna just take off that the healthy course of action should would need to do we're doing -- -- you know slowly climb up as time passes.
And I expect if anything that's -- -- -- is to be somewhat shallow.
Over the next you know one to two quarters because -- always positive influence -- -- you know it's funny the other part about it is in some our viewers are actually talking about this that it is you say it creates this environment.
But also at some point potentially creates an inflationary environment it's just the nature of what what we're doing here in terms of a policy.
Approach show that -- you know at what point is that turn into our normal inflation is a good thing we can use it to we've got to be worried about this.
Well it's -- think it is you know I always tell my clients.
Did the biggest threat to the economy -- So obviously the policy response is going to be one that's inflationary and and that's the concern going out and forward.
Got going for next couple years and and the interesting thing is for people who are concerned about the stock market recovery.
-- what you pretend you know what we -- protect yourself and inflation is to buy stocks because your fixed income investments will lose out that type of environment.
-- -- stocks companies can rate raise prices and and you know why -- real returns might not be strange you know they could be they'll be better than we did you know your alternative.
Assets out there.
I think that's a real threat a couple years out the fact is I think that deflationary forces will now offset the inflationary forces.
But the next few months will be an important is that facilities PPI today.
-- we're here we're gonna see that did you know inflationary.
Under -- start coming through because we've seen.
Oil rally a 100% since since it -- earlier in the year.
And we're not look at the year over year numbers vs last year when oil was a 140 dollars so people start paying more attention now.
But -- said stocks is almost a defensive measure and that type.
Yeah I was at a big question op plan from Mike and then I started to look at his name again in every time I looked at Mike's name and makes me think I'm talking and making work.
-- -- -- -- -- And I yield my Mike over Oregon didn't that name that was -- hit seven -- -- the -- people here that they're.
You know it's funny what sort of work a new York stock she's people call me that's no way.
I know I'm not alone and that makes me feel much better.
-- -- What can make you Brokaw Mickey no notable all of -- -- that -- real real name.
Hello -- -- what's happening guys stocks might do what I think that we lost have been watching a lot is is the commodities sector watching gold from last week and seeing him you know.
It's a bit what would happen on Friday saying that your hype bird for clothes for -- How do you keep active consideration because he really look at oil -- part of that economic recovery -- has a lot of stimulus spending is on the horizon.
It is -- opportunity there more opportunity than there might be in Sox right now.
You know I actually don't think there is today I think this move by the CFTC to clamp down speculation is likely Yemen take a lot of hot money out of those markets.
So while I wouldn't you know in some cases like oil I'm I'm -- -- because that we've China get a lot of aggressive stockpiling.
Earlier in the year in preparation for their infrastructure build out with their stimulus program so I think their level of the man was higher than that what will be going forward.
Where is gold I view that more as.
People will play it as an inflation hedge.
And you know it should perform okay or in the same campus you know -- -- a little -- is not as well stocks for people look to it.
It -- that that you know hasn't had a defensive measure.
So commodities -- you know they have their place Phillies I think the oil situation has got a little -- control or a little ahead of itself because I think China pushed it up.
And I think people were really too much anything and cut it in context of -- recovery trade I think this speculation is she's a big issue for the -- C and there are clamp down on it.
And dumb plays a gold I'm not you don't necessarily bearish on a specialty stock swap performance going forward.
We have Carl thank you making now that -- thanks I appreciate it.
You can -- how -- they have guys Mike -- -- EIG it.
That's you know what's -- -- funny about that is said he's not that I -- bullish on oil.
So ideas on stocks within two treated in the same direction for -- that's it for awhile now for the last and they had been trading in opposite directions or your kind of waiting started trading in the same direction.
Right I mean -- the markets we've seen some of the -- 52 week -- today but we're we're kind of that we haven't had this one big move for a while I think like it hit last year at this time of course not expect the same that.
Something that's gonna spark something.
Do we can do without something like that what blood does something my has some sort of a -- -- to two to one way.
Or the other we probably need a catalyst to do that for us otherwise we drift for a while here until we get that but for the most part the market has been drifting higher means the next rally -- little -- -- -- have an idea about that.
-- that she'll be a mistake you -- -- coming and -- is coming up a bit later in the show rich Edson is next.
Problem Ben Bernanke Big Ben Bernanke making it that speech today that he's already made so we'll see if he gets better the second time around in the first next on foxbusiness.com.
He's yesterday with the presidency personally believe they have -- rich hasn't actually at a topless again today he loves us this great -- I mean I don't care but that right I mean.
Would I mean let's I mean if you're not doing anything in the next 45 lying out.
I really get credit -- at this before but it's my understanding that you probably had several lunch dates aren't like that -- -- hard -- -- -- -- -- last week we addressed the subject some detail as they say we went into an in depth but -- returns and I was named by one of the Washington blogs as a as a heartthrob for obviously.
Still makes time for our -- it's amazing I can't believe the ego really hasn't gotten him yet they'll laugh you haven't -- -- agency lining up candidates.
Well rested -- candidates -- never speak again at least -- -- -- and that kind of mentioning Ben Bernanke did this one before sitting.
Useless little -- and -- -- accomplished speech sixteen.
I think that way anyways this is editorial was yeah really came with some of the question answer period -- really contested that you.
Well they say -- you know -- and ask a little bit more about the recovery what we can expect Ben Bernanke saying that it's likely that the economy right now is that a recession he says that we're going to see moderate growth through the rest of this year.
Moderate growth through next year he says -- we still have headwinds facing high unemployment unemployment will remain high.
Bernanke says for some some amount of time -- also says look there.
It could be better it could be worse giving the ultimate heads there on his economic forecasts on talked a bit about the shadow banking system says it's really not in play all that much right now because.
-- -- Banks -- and consumers are looking more towards safety so they're going towards -- and it plain Vanilla type of financial products and I didn't expect the financial banking system.
Is going to do have come back into player -- substantial part of the economy in the medium term but then again he expects -- to to really come into play.
In the long term and so that's that's pretty much -- -- Ben Bernanke today just talking David about the policy actions the federal government has taken it really.
Jumping on board with the Treasury Secretary Tim Geithner and -- President Obama saying look at what that were not for the massive federal government intervention we've seen in the past year we may not have saved the economy.
Right so that's the the -- look back which is fine but -- and people are probably more interested in the look.
Forward didn't seem in the queue today what are your texture and Steven -- talking beyond he said it didn't seem like they got a lot out of him even in the Q&A do you -- or or do we missed something.
-- you know Ben Bernanke is the master whether it be in front of congress there -- an audience of fell folks in government I -- He he can say so much without saying all that much she's the master of moving away from questions and not directly answering them.
-- while giving a polite and stereo as the Fed Chairman he's got to be extremely careful with what he says he stays on point but he still makes it seem like -- -- told us something new there.
And and you look at the comments I and he doesn't.
Parents and just say you have.
We of course as -- -- as we were joking earlier you were covering the president speaking yesterday about that regulation and we forget that.
And breaking out with another term and also with the comments about the Federal Reserve becoming a systemic regulator he really.
His exposure and also his sister role overall can really be inflated for better you know news about -- word.
Any -- on how it feels about -- whether the Federal Reserve could handle that -- responsibility.
I think the Federal Reserve sees itself as the logical choice I think the Fed wants that power and if you look at all the testimony that the various regulatory agencies in Washington -- -- giving.
Ever since the administration came out -- its proposal its.
I want to keep my authority and I also want this and so there's been this bit of an argument going on.
Among all these regulatory agencies -- they want the increased authority they want the increased power and that's certainly true.
The Fed and Ben Bernanke -- this where we are and all that by the way just in terms of making its way through Capitol Hill on the overhaul I know we talked a little bit about this yesterday that the idea that.
We're talking so much about who's going to do what but not about what is going to be done all the time -- or at least doesn't seem like we're getting into the the most people really care about is is what they're gonna regulate what -- the new rules going to be most people normal people don't care who's gonna do the regulating but in Washington that seems to be all -- they're talking about.
Yeah and you know the house is going to start -- the house financial services committee the next couple of weeks that they're gonna start -- the tough stuff first of consumer financial products agency.
That's going to be agency that's going to look out for.
Contract terms of mortgages contract terms for credit cards.
To make sure they are understandable to have the power to write rules and this is it.
If the administration proposal actually does pass.
Those -- the financial services industry don't want to see a new agency they don't want that authority given to a new agency currently most of that.
Lies with the Fed right now they'd like to -- state -- so.
-- you're going to see a pretty significant fight over that and then there's you the regulation of over the counter derivatives.
That's coming down the -- Systemic risk regulator resolution authority those are nearly slam dunks the questions really are who would be the systemic risk regulator who would have that resolution authority.
That's going to be worked out in in congress but I think give the industry on board with those two ideas and folks in congress on board with those two ideas.
But there's a lot of questions about the Federal Reserve and that's the issue that the administration defended.
They both wanted to be a systemic risk regulator they -- -- the Fed to be the systemic risk regulator.
And -- folks on Capitol Hill who has some significant problems with just.
The power of the Federal Reserve all its overnight lending -- it lends money to -- And all the reporting requirements they want more transparency they want a better look inside the -- they want audits of the Fed.
And there are plenty of folks not ready to hand over that power.
Spoken only like a hard rock and yes.
Millions in the but -- did -- rich -- its actual results of that.
-- -- -- Didn't win you know I'm so I don't -- to -- subject I'm sunny and a -- In our well you -- site.
That that week I was on vacations and -- came back and found that that I had both been nominated him lost -- candidate -- join my nomination and I couldn't camped out on that that he's.
-- his advantage.
Well I'm sure I'm sure who -- whoever won was not.
Fitting but what about the -- curiosity Luke Russert I think one half -- and.
OK yeah yeah yeah I -- -- guy got ahead every time -- now.
-- race between.
Well we'll look at the sentencing congratulatory to -- would have figured that out well let's take suggestions from our viewers -- way -- you have an AA is what we think we should send a rich.
As it consolation prize -- -- that.
At a breakfast they wanted to stop talking about it but yeah we'd like to -- among at least a weekly basis this is nice to see us through you know critics who aren't around.
Sorry rich we're gonna move on here and viewsonic is the CEO of great authority and we were talking a little bit about the survey yesterday from grant -- I talked about on Fox News Channel well.
And business optimism but also have as translating into hiring so -- to see again great -- idealized you can't talk the talk us through this survey.
-- thank you glad to be here at the -- survey we do every quarter of business executives throughout the United States.
And it basically focuses on their business optimism what they think it's gonna happen over the next six months.
Looking at the overall economy their own business and their -- hiring expectations.
OK so tell us what you found this program.
All right thank you the results are very interesting the overall index which is on a scale of 100 came out at 61.
And that's up substantially from where was last February -- was only about 38.
And slightly up and -- a positive trend from Maine where it was at 55.
And and basically what it shows is that people are quite optimistic over the next six months about the the economy in general in -- 58% thought the overall economy would improve over the next six months.
Interestingly enough they always think their own businesses are gonna do better in 73%.
Thought that their own businesses would do much better have increased sales over the next six months.
But unfortunately only 26%.
Said that they were going to be hiring over the next six months now.
That's better than then -- fewer than three months ago when when not only 20% said that in fact more so there are going to be letting people go.
And only 18% so this time that they're going to be letting people go over the next six months so it's.
It's it's in improvement but it's still disappointing that only 26% say they're going to be hiring people.
At that movement that's what was interesting is that in part of the survey to what is it 56%.
If I have a -- -- state and they're not gonna do either hire or fire it's economist.
Yes it's it's very interesting it it shows that -- optimistic about the future but not about hiring people think -- they're just gonna stay flat.
Right and that a lot of these numbers if you look at all -- -- in in aggregate all the economic data we have been put your survey in the midst of it.
You -- few months back police say are so uncertain we have no idea what's gonna happen next noted it pretty clear narrative it seems immediately that could be wrong maybe you disagree -- what exactly is happening -- The economy is turning around.
Businesses are leading that turnaround consumers are lagging jobs aren't coming back and aren't likely to come back probably until sometime next year.
And yes as Ben Bernanke says.
Almost definitely were out of recession or very close to it.
And the question is whether we go back into one next year and that's still legs onto -- -- -- did you know that -- certainly doesn't really answer that question right we're still uncertain about that because we don't know when hiring is gonna come back.
We don't know for example this is separate from -- we don't know when the consumers -- -- we still have these questions for.
For 2010 that we don't know the answer to whereas now -- pretty much know where we are.
Yeah I think you're right I think.
We have a clear picture this survey confirms a lot of what we're hearing elsewhere that businesses are optimistic they're seeing improvements in their own business growth sales.
But not hiring and and that is cause for concern -- we did ask the supplemental question about.
When you think when these business leaders think we're gonna emerge from the recession most did not think that we would emerge in 2009 that over half.
Thought -- emerge by the first half of 2010.
Thought would emerge from the recession completely by the end of 2010 so.
There is this this consistent optimism but it doesn't not translate into new hires.
What if things we've been talking about -- -- incentives.
Through stimulus package in an otherwise the government to invest in.
Equipment for example for your firm's let's -- cut some jobs and you have an incentive to invest in new equipment because you get a tax write off.
You get that same incentive for hiring you don't think that's an -- you.
Sometimes have a disincentive because if you health care you have to -- your health care for example what do you think is really behind thank you think that's factoring -- -- to this kind of lack of being motivated to hire is it is that more than just economic uncertainty went.
Hey may not just makes sense right now thinking is something else that could benefit your business.
Yeah I think I think you're right I think companies are still concerned they wanna be lean and mean going forward.
I think most companies we we see this not just in the United States but anecdotally throughout the entire world.
That companies believe that we have sort of a new economy can't be successful going forward everybody has to figure out figure out a -- -- lower their cost.
And be much more efficient and part of that.
Is by having less staff less people involved in the organization.
And then that makes it tough.
For people looking for jobs.
You're talking about new economy -- -- -- the changes that are being made -- user anyway and you've been able they either anecdotally you're through the survey been able to break down the levels of optimism.
Depending on which sector company comes from -- which part of the economy company isn't.
Well it's it's more anecdotal than anything else and and it varies considerably we're seeing some optimism in the technology companies.
We're -- seeing -- re -- even in financial services.
Oil and gas is certainly had its share of ups and downs but we see some optimism there as well the energy business.
Obviously things like clean tech new energy -- companies are just booming.
Some concerns still exist and the auto industry.
Which continues to be tough but but some level of optimism there as well.
I don't industry -- He has done.
Well you know the good news is people always need accountants and and that's nice.
We we have some things that are that are doing extremely well we have a strong turnaround restructuring or bankruptcy practice which.
And fortune in many ways but for us it's good because it is is doing extremely well.
We're seeing less activity in mergers and acquisitions but some activity starting to emerge the last six months have been very slow.
In the -- world but again we're seeing some activity picking up.
We see we do a lot of work for the federal and state and local governments that activity remains strong.
And in general like I said people always need audits they need tax -- any general business advice and those businesses -- remained relatively flat up slightly over the.
Very -- you know they say about CEO's that is that there are always more optimistic in his life here -- they're always optimistic about their own business trip I read that -- serviceable it's absolutely shut up about it.
And it's true I guess that's a good thing you fit right into -- -- these guys more optimistic about as a business and that some other things going forward so you know of those but in all seriousness you talked about a number of issues there.
That may or may not pick up and obviously the need for bankruptcy all that's not good news that we still would need that to get turned around.
What about a minute you mention mergers and -- and and acquisitions and what we've been wondering are we starting to see -- pick up missing some bigger deals announced there.
In the last few weeks but nothing crazy just yet.
Well I you know there's a lot of talk out there's more talk than action unfortunately.
It's been completely quiet and dead for the last six months even a year.
But we are seeing a lot of activity people planning considering acquisitions.
I think it's still going to be slow for the next couple of months but I think we will start to see -- pick up this is just my own personal view.
Towards the end of this -- -- certainly into the beginning of 2010.
One thing that's interesting as prices fall as people take their their -- they start marking things down at fair market value -- That creates the opportunity for acquisitions the prices are -- And as we see it and if we see the credit relax a little bit that'll create the ability to do the -- position so.
A reduction in prices -- what relaxation of credit.
Would allow those acquisitions to take place I don't think we're seeing a lot of real activity -- Across the board but we're seeing a lot of talk a lot of possibilities and I'm optimistic as you might expect.
About the future development and seriously I do think by the end of this -- here strictly in the beginning 2010.
We'll see more and Yemeni activity -- -- stock offerings we're not seeing the light yet but a lot of discussions a lot of companies preparing to do stock conference.
All right -- well fans get everything -- fits together survey that -- the CEO behind the survey they hiring at.
-- not what you've worked yeah.
You can uniter thing is not say you know I like my job right now 100 -- down to have been content.
Not -- look at it it's good to connect the right and I trust you guys this is my math skills thank you met and they said.
Good good did you -- a way to keep going here with the same not -- -- -- -- it's somebody.
On trends in employment coming up next and remember we still still to come to the big -- -- today is that way to keep your annoying coworker at -- your cubicle.
We've all -- sort of let it run on it would have some and you would have had to -- the other side.
The un arms or brand chassis at about who -- specifically he season tickets in the country music especially by the way this -- -- -- because it was so good -- -- -- And it -- -- about it she's ahead of Corey Perry's leadership and talent consulting group so.
That would be a good question for you got it right where where.
DC show that the hot jobs in the country where -- at.
Well what a wonderful things that we're seeing -- -- in grades listening to your your previous conversation if round confidence and leadership.
And and we have quite a cameo we get as you know.
We do work on our leadership development and talent management tend to an -- -- -- and we're seeing that beaten up by the way which is.
Which is great so one of the things that we do is to deal to this confidence and leadership index.
And and -- surprise would be engage in data for the last six months.
And it's pretty stable so as we see the -- zones and other indexes going up and down.
Confidence in leadership -- -- credibility and perceived trust say right it's it's right that what I'm very high actually.
Yeah I'm just curious a decent overall like raw numbers really mean that anything to people would have had economic data survey like this but that's set I'll ask you to explain it.
From may to August 69 out of a hundred is the reading this index was supposedly measures things strategic thinking financial -- encourage only six.
Different things to go and -- financial -- to leadership.
What a 69 out of a hundred it's almost seven out of ten is that is that a good score what's the deal what what is it usually Iraq.
It's actually get greeted solid score in particular when you're looking at best court in the -- off an economic downturn right in economic crisis when you see.
This consumer confidence not right they are right and you look at.
Confidence and leadership and it's almost except for example last this time last year had -- been plummeting you know after the financial crisis that it -- -- could have been worse but -- you you've got to look at what we measure to.
We look at four factors here.
We're looking at leadership -- believed -- -- do I believe that our leaders corporate leaders have what it takes in terms of skills experience and background.
To get the job done.
We're looking at trust -- Doesn't -- your values match mine do why do you do what you say especially their.
We're looking at characteristics and then.
Aren't they taking the right direction with all bets are they making the right decisions and sit brings is -- initial questionable ware about who we're seeing the conferencing index go -- there are is your sense specifics as to.
What industries are where in the world there's actually.
More of that and maybe more opportunity consequently because.
The conference is tired.
Where -- -- did beat our baseline on the on data now in the we looked across all of our.
Twelve over a dozen a dozen countries.
And it's pretty consistent everywhere you see you see some Everest for example.
Credibility leadership is higher in the US than it is in other countries.
But then -- leaders making the right decisions and going in the right directions you see.
India and and China very high much higher than the US now which which may mean that you know what we serve.
-- -- the people that are underneath the leadership.
Yes you know well people are more or less likely to question leadership part that some in some countries like that woo -- we question authority all the time here in the United States was a good but -- -- we -- We we're we're -- it's not cynical but we mean that in -- -- we don't we don't believe things at face value -- much.
As I'm just thinking I I don't know this -- fact that I would think as much as the Chinese who have or maybe even an Indian culture right.
-- is there there's different people -- -- -- spot on there's definitely an influence step with what we did was we looked at the board level.
Down to middle managers.
So it's not an end and we have the leaders actually self evaluate looking at themselves and say.
-- do I -- how confident MI in what I'm doing.
You know what I'm doing right now right what's my level of certainty.
That we do so -- plus it's like a cross section in in as I mentioned you.
It gets quite -- -- we take a debt in the context off the hands on experience that we have as well.
Any different trends that you see there emerging -- during this time again always looking back at it this week particularly to last year anything that's done.
It a different trends and -- we she didn't.
We feel wherever it rather look at the job through -- people of this woman very interesting ones and in quite relevant -- -- -- were looking for jobs.
If you look -- six months ago in terms of the required being -- -- -- characteristics for success.
Strategic orientation so having the vision and being a great operator what's what's right there.
What's worse is that being replaced a little bit more -- cards.
And with energy and drive this show now we it's well -- talk you went to welcome.
People made it right in the hope that -- -- -- different an idiot for not only that do you have the courage to make the tough decisions I have -- and I can't do you think it's it's wife again is people are searching for Josh maybe they're not executives.
Is it in desert seem to -- where there's new executive this new opportunity at the lower levels as well or is that.
When there's an executive turnover does that not correspond to other opportunities for the company.
-- Always reflects into the opportunity just first of all others.
There's -- newcomer in there -- so it's it's I -- huge challenge to reinvent yourself tend and to present yourself to that new person.
As as a driver or if this is a turnaround situation as somebody who can get the job done.
So every time you have somebody new coming into the hot shot there is an opportunity for others around to reposition themselves.
Mean it's it's so we put things together we have essentially this picture where.
It there's a little more confidence it seems like in the United States vs Europe there's certain areas of Asia that are horror.
And -- better than we are in specific categories but what does that all mean the kid is there -- -- as an economic message and all this I know it's.
It's intended for executives that are sent mr.
Korn ferry does executive search -- you did people that are looking for jobs but is there.
Some sort of a message about the global economic downturn and then -- that we can take away the big picture -- Yeah and that that's a great question one of the things of that it could mean and again we're waiting to see what the -- is going to tell us six months from now on them.
-- -- a year from now isn't that.
The except -- the leaders who survived.
And who took the top shots over the last couple of years we're actually the right ones right because people are looking at them.
And I see you know.
Not only this person has -- type of credibility that makes me believe.
That's you're she's going to carry the torch.
Here but also I trust whatever he or she -- -- Combining them -- because that few of the questions that we had when.
I needed to get through with communion and there's questions that CEO's of major banks are often just with with government intervention in the auto makers.
AIG who want that job what exactly it is that I actually wants a job like that and what -- -- question that no other companies as well during a rough time right where you finding these executives of the coming you know as -- didn't.
Looking for the united recruitment.
I -- -- -- -- retirement are are they out there somewhere in different positions are they out of work and they were just sit casualties of this downturn Friday.
First of all we've seen a lot of quantity of right of course there if you're either the big -- regulation and I think that it's out there.
But when you're looking for -- death person who is going to take over that leadership role.
Then then your pool gets much much smaller.
Lots what's happening more often than not does that.
People who are not at the top of the house.
12 years ago.
But who have the potential to get there and have demonstrate that that are the ones working chosen so one of the things that need to get corn ferry as we work.
-- -- organizations as we work with our clients is to understand.
Who passed Buckley called the learning agility to actually move from one situation to the other -- figure -- out real quickly and and succeed so don't -- for the month.
You're you're looking for.
Well a lot of high profile executive positions -- -- -- -- AIG whether you know Robert in -- is the CEO they're down a bit of MetLife and and on Wall Street woodland big names came up like a John Thain had been in the number of different places.
Most -- recently Merrill Lynch before it got sold you do you see a lot of seem.
Names being recycled now during this whole crisis down to whatever the last year have we seen a lot of that shuffling of the deck vs people.
That have not had an opportunity to be the highest ranks.
-- certain companies being able to rise up this is still a lot of you don't upward mobility there.
I think that's just the fact that the three of us here could probably mentioned in the same five to ten names -- and put them about.
Is that that the universe is quite limited -- really tough to break in -- works hard.
But -- continuing his sixtieth has missed a lot of free so even -- I don't think it's sometimes I mean some people fill up original series.
Good name and still -- -- -- -- naming them all by name but there's been plenty people that have failed in three or four positions and somehow or another there's still gone I'm trying to -- That's true but most listeners to the exceptions were identified and thank you -- pat Fox News today.
And I did the idea is certainly for those guys out there so.
I'm not a million from Brazil are you yeah how you can AFL -- and -- I do I do -- -- -- the market had hysteria -- do really -- something that are -- now.
It is it is it is very interest and the guys I grew up in this country where.
Inflation combined with recession -- was life -- -- -- just what it was.
In for the first time you have.
Latin America in general.
In the midst of a global economic crisis so it's very very interesting.
To go down there -- she.
With hope Sendai and company's growing and it's.
Really great I know a lot of credit and no mortgage that is really how excellent would it mean essentially -- leaders coming think from the Latin America an American company I don't know if you if you're aware of stats but in particular brazile.
Was always a training ground with a boot camp.
Four leaders who are high potentials and and we're being slotted for the big roles in the other international farms but to go to so.
Companies like kind Fukuoka -- I think you -- -- they would send somebody there you feel can survive.
Inflation recession and I did.
And do great everywhere so that's that's what's going on still.
Today thank you for that -- that says it's now.
But -- nice turn of events for your home country.
Yeah said the whole rehab that Brazil has been through encrypted through the -- a couple times of -- on the side of it.
On a -- thank you for coming at a very very much left in the nation.
All right the presidents we -- and -- a couple stops today.
Houston you workers most recent AFL CIO -- he had to stop and GM earlier.
Yesterday of course the big speech on Wall Street so we're gonna talk about regulation that's coming up.
We got the -- cubicle thing keeping him to give us.
That's -- secret any evidence.
Getting slowly giving it away it's -- -- Soriano before we you have an annoying coworker you can now keep them away also ahead in the show the person who has the office right next door to me upstairs.
Not that she's -- but she's actually when you say when our favorite people.
The virus so you need smelling bad we'll be back is -- -- -- -- is giving yourself an infection.
All right let's so we'll get -- in just a moment in his -- -- keep you waiting.
Yeah I don't know I've obviously held a keeper Alec this cubicle -- that we have given a shot anyway threw him -- crawler stories together today.
But first rob Nichols president now and chief operating officer financial services -- rob joins us.
From DC today talk a little bit about regulation because we've had two high profile speeches -- -- you know the last couple of days the president yesterday in the Fed Chairman today.
Talking about where we go from here of course some it was backward looking but that was the the real important stuff that we should be talking about so what did you think of it let's start with the president what do you think of what he had to say about Wall Street regulation yesterday.
Well thanks for having me on I really appreciate it does -- actually just got back from New York an hour or so ago and it did I did attend the speech there's probably about a hundred maybe -- 120 people there.
This president gives a very good speech let's be very frank and very candid about it so let me -- kind of breaking down for -- got a two -- -- he -- back.
At -- that a lot of the historic and inventive actions that were taken on the part of the Treasury Department and the Federal Reserve.
Both under his presidency and and that of the former President George Bush.
They talked about some of those things in the efforts to provide financial stability and put us on a path to economic recovery.
And then President Obama did a little bit of a look ahead.
What he would like to see happen in the area of regulatory modernization.
And there's a couple pieces of that element of the speech that I'll highlight free today that I thought were were very sensible and things that we're very supportive -- in the first is the idea.
Of having a systemic risk supervisor.
Having an entity that looks out over the whole system right now of course our regulatory structure is pretty stove pipe so that.
There's a different entities look at different legal entities I'll look at insurance companies it's gonna look at.
Investment banks -- one look at commercial banks but no one's looking at the entire system.
So that idea.
That that President Obama put forward yesterday if one were very supportive and I think is is very sensible -- and quite needed frankly.
And then the second piece that he talked about is it is among some other things that we thought was very sensible -- the idea of having.
Resolution -- wind down authority so that heaven forbid heaven forbid we get in a situation in years from now like we were last fall.
Where we're talking about unwinding one of these very large.
And global and interconnected institutions that there are set of legal and procedural tools in place to do it in and non chaotic way.
In a way that doesn't harm the capital markets more broadly so look for two pieces substantive pieces of the president's speech that.
That I'd like to apply -- and we think -- we think are are needed and are missing in the current regulatory structure today rob give us a little bit of an idea on your background.
I'm I'm the president of the financial services form it's a nonpartisan.
Public policy organization.
Representing the CEOs.
Seventeen of the world's largest financial institutions have been in that -- have been in that position -- -- -- -- half years before that.
I was an assistant secretary of the treasury that's position that required senate confirmation so what do that process.
I was there for about one -- years -- before that I spent many years on Capitol Hill.
Look at this great you know I didn't want to let our viewers know as well because that they -- -- the next question really of that timeline we've heard about this rhetoric.
Whether or not supported it immoral war and client support of the group supports it.
It's one thing but as far as timeline for consumers.
And those most vulnerable from a system that many Greece faulty at this time are not regulated appropriately.
What do you see when you -- and I think with the experience particularly in the treasury.
That's that's a good -- great question.
Chairman frank who's one of the two probably most influential hill officials who -- Overseeing the legislative element of this has said privately recently that -- last several days that he sees October actually September.
As being a time to have continued hearings October we'll look at mark ups and then.
Most likely November for the senate traditionally is a little bit behind the house so for it to get done by the end of the year.
You know both bodies are gonna have to move more move quickly as a process will continue now of course.
The Health Care Reform has really sucked all the oxygen out of the room in Washington right now so.
After after that is completed then.
It looks like the White House has made regulatory modernization its next top priority.
So you'll see a lot about this -- focus is on the focus on that.
Yeah and they'd like to get it done they say body -- -- she says we'll see whether or not that happens but do you know it we did a show we just it'd actually just -- -- last weekend about the banking.
Future of banking and about almost too big to fail issue we had some great debates on -- from the number different people some that said.
Hey listen it's OK to have banks that are quote unquote too big to fail we've had in the past we've lived -- others that say.
As I think you did that we've got to do something about this so let's take that issue.
That's specifically are we going to be able to find the balance between a Wall Street a financial services industry that still is able to take on risk.
Because that's how it makes money after all and that's the business that -- -- And still not threaten the system if one of those banks is to fail or go out of business what's the balance.
Yeah they're 22 points that one is our view and I do represented many of these large institutions that fit in that quote unquote too -- -- -- category.
Our view is that there's no one too big to fail we need to take that off the table we saw that.
That happened with G -- season that did create significant problems from a policy and an economic standpoint so.
No one should be too big to fail.
But there are some institutions that are too big to fail uncontrollable.
And in the chaotic way that could cause harm.
-- a broader capital markets and that's why we need a resolution authority but your question.
About about the large and the global and interconnected institutions it really goes to capital adequacy and that's another thing that's being debated not only -- treasury.
But but also at the G-20 level and then certainly in congress in which is.
How big should -- -- institutions grow.
How much capital should these institutions have in reserve in case there is another significant set of economic headwinds right and that's that tricky tricky balance -- that's a tricky balance because.
Obviously you need to dial back leverage a little bit which all of the institutions have done.
Since this since the peak of the crisis that has happened by and large everywhere within the financial services industry.
But I don't wanna go too far the other side I understand -- -- -- if you do that then it then makes it hard for these institutions to lend.
To provide capital to entrepreneurs and businesses and continue to extend credit so it's that balance and you gotta get that balance right.
Right okay ride to another sort of try and I get -- rob just half for 12 was McDonald was here to talk about our next story on Bank of America I don't want to jump in on this disease she was part of this.
Thank you special that we had we talked it over so much detail on newest -- -- is a jump in here before we talk about.
You know it's a great point about capital adequacy because in Lehman Brothers collapse they're trying to put.
Hybrid debt securities part of their capital cushion as sort of like using your credit card bill as part of -- -- a picture to get a loan which is sort of a safe thing to do.
But -- I ain't been covering what happened last fall and -- that.
They have Ben Bernanke has been credited for -- essentially avoiding the great panic turning into the Great Depression.
He's been credited with pat taking historic invented -- -- ways to do what he's calling -- credit easing -- -- it's really quantitative easing.
Make no mistake behind the scenes their hair was on fire and they -- careening around -- Jamaican bobsled team.
-- -- did not headed to fixate banking sector because he didn't have the regulatory authority as rob is pointing out and the spring of 2008 Henry Paulson and Ben Bernanke saw a crisis coming Bear Stearns had collapse and that is you know how pilots for a trip to everybody.
I should regard that as a watershed moment because that's when the Federal Reserve and treasury started bending the rules -- Federal Reserve set up for the first time.
Off balance sheet entities to house Bear Stearns Kryptonite.
Toxic bad paper off balance sheet entities and lifestyle entities that led one European banking officials say he thought those off -- entity best entries went the way of Enron so.
You know at that point Ben Bernanke and Henry Paulson said to themselves look.
We're not gonna get the congress to give us any of the authority or help we need -- election year we may have to wait until the eleventh hour to fix what's going on so the idea being that you know the treasury officials talk about putting foam on the runway to take care of -- airplane crash.
The follow them right away became taxpayer dollars okay taxpayers became the full on that runway.
And so behind the scenes you see you know now Bank of America was being roped into possibly by Lehman Brothers snake -- no mistake.
Stimulus is not going to do that deal and he said so without government help he wanted to government.
-- -- -- a government assistance there they've looked at Lehman Brothers balance sheet and saw that in lots of them that the proper results were basically artificially overvalued so.
The -- and Lehman Brothers sold for one and three quarter billion dollars one billion for the headquarters alone.
When Lehman Brothers thought they had seventy billion dollars -- more and possible bad real estate assets that's want their networks so.
You know and that president made a speech yesterday one point six trillion writedowns and losses have been taken in the banking sector.
Mic moment no mistake bonuses and compensation a lot of money was -- off of those fake.
So you know in this thing is do you have a regulatory authority can the SEC do it.
You know you make a good point about that financial -- risk regulator.
-- that that Federal Reserve do -- Chris Dodd a series of its like giving the keys to the teenager after he.
To the -- him correctly crest station wagon ahead.
Must see this is seen here this is he didn't have up to date statements on Bear Stearns and have up to date financial reports and Bear Stearns and Bear Stearns collapse.
So that's what's that's going on in Washington DC -- it was a lot more chaotic and a lot it was very messy behind the scenes yet have we been.
Don't want to talk to little listing of the SEC about the bank -- -- let's just give rob the last word on this whole topic.
When we come out of it rob we come out of it stronger.
And then and have more regulated and better off or or you still worried about the direction we're -- Now I think listen everyone.
That we would like to see thoughtful intelligent regulation and listen.
There were a lot of deficiencies there were a lot of gaps there was regulatory arbitrage.
We are -- ironically actually been calling to update and modernize the supervisory architecture -- our industry before the crisis since that we are actually.
Very supportive of reform.
And again it's it's.
Your other guest hit it just right there is a lot of have chaotic issues happening behind the scenes in part because.
Policy makers -- only grappled with regulatory modernization twice in seven years.
Gramm Leach Bliley in the ninety's and Glass-Steagall in the -- so they're not a lot of folks in Washington DC.
Who are familiar.
Who are fluent.
And can sit down and talk about what -- you know the current the current.
State of affairs let alone what we would like to see any utopia so.
You know you like to do it -- yeah.
We'll enact have let it go but we appreciate your perspective rob thanks for joining me again thank -- and I thank you and Fox Business again very soon live so why -- -- pick up more to balance.
I think America specific and -- -- necessary regulation.
Our regulator more regulation when the question that was brought -- their morning show.
Was whether or not although the judge Brock caught saying listen guys get a good according -- -- this I can't settle the SEC and Bank of America can't settle.
This and -- that undermines the SEC even further -- damages situation where rightly or wrongly.
Who believes it almost lost your right now who's policing and now VMware and -- Hitchcock Canon you know.
Jenny Anderson a great point you know enlarged McDonald's -- -- a book a colossal failure of common sense -- that the -- Brothers collapsed them paraphrasing him.
He said it's something like 7 o'clock at night on Wall Street because these guys are always thinking -- something extra reason maybe 12 o'clock into the night thinking of something something.
-- it's like 1981 got to Washington so be way behind the eight ball on what's going on so what you're seeing with the Bank of America case.
Is it illustrates that perfectly.
That is is that the FCC tried to settle.
That failure to disclose issue.
The Bank of America 33 million dollars lower case and fat ankles you know one bankers' pay plus bonus for a year I would think -- the -- so.
33 million dollars not a lot of money.
So the bank got big guys that -- plus the shareholders of the ones paying plus that's exactly right and the judge took umbrage at that you said basically this is cynical.
And it's a contrivance.
And he's saying look you may have to go to trial on February 1.
He sent it right back you put that settlement right at the door at the same time you see New York attorney general Andrew -- -- sick and possibly preparing possibly we haven't seen them yet.
Civil fraud charges I called and spoke with Andrew Cuomo's office and that they have this they would not put a time I think we're not name names of who may be charged.
One official said in May be you know weeks away so.
We're taking a wait and see but that is in the works to what happened with the Merrill Lynch and Bank of America.
Problem should give every investor and every viewer policy should watch out what happened.
The Bank of America let their shareholders vote on the deal December trip.
Without knowing that -- bank Bank of America plant to let Merrill Lynch paid three point six billion dollars in bonuses.
Without letting investors know that their losses were deepening at Merrill Lynch from seven billion.
29 billion by the time of the boat which then came up fifth of almost fifteen billion dollars.
For the fourth quarter so.
You know OK can Bank of America had at Bank of America get away Scott free of -- this one that remains to be seen there is basically saying that two billion dollar figure.
That went from seven billion to nine -- in terms of Merrill's losses.
Is not material does not need to be and I would not material enough didn't need to be disclosed to investors that's probably questionable also a side agreement in the merger deal was inked.
And September 2008 allow for five point six billion dollars in bonuses to be paid.
To Merrill Lynch and Bank of America knew about that.
They're saying that look we didn't disclose.
On TV notion that -- banks may have BankAmerica can only sign off -- has the authority to sign companies bonuses in the proxy statement.
It has decided -- -- says we didn't see it we didn't see it all wee -- -- did not this.
Those -- properly.
And some story really -- -- -- any clue about how it's gonna play out this says they'll just break -- was tough to predict for awhile but now to go to trial against -- And hollow is saying that he's gonna take executives specifically from getting an outcry on the same basically Lewis himself and -- go get charged by Cuomo.
He gave that that's a question and could the CFO just surprise.
Be -- as well they're saying look our lawyers told us.
That not to disclose or they've taken under the -- other players it is spending a lot of money on this very friendly -- saying well continue that and don't have to then if you're using that argument.
Then you must waive the attorney client privilege and disclose conversations you had with -- -- to see if that holds up there in your argument holds up in -- court of law so that's where that battle sits right now.
Party met we got to run to get this so personally not a howling out just how listened to and if you happen including a one if he had annoying co workers are gonna tell you how to keep them away from him and -- real she may need her got her.
More than it does not lose tonight and it's next order each other sister have a real life example just didn't CEO shield guards.
-- -- I -- have been teasing this all our and I didn't hear yes and -- -- radar and guarding your issue.
Whether we like to show everybody but somebody cutting costs you're cute he didn't get a feel let's get you know that I like -- smiley faces that's.
Figure -- Q John talk us through this what does this provide you.
To not mr.
Well basically what it provides -- and we all know that there's about fifty million -- in America today.
And I was just have a lot -- they're great for collaborative work environment for the problem as me trying to get your work done.
You don't have any method really if communicating your coworkers that you don't want to be -- -- what this does is just a high quality inexpensive product allocation how much.
-- exact princess of question.
What is to come up with a -- guard that you know similar to how dogs have those electronic.
Something electronic zapping cue card.
Yeah that's right I'm just kidding.
Well it's funny zip code one of the first -- that ever happened that we ever had a story come out and then actually the comments actually that's -- the person that came out.
Miraculously trying to hit.
Did so -- how much does it cost about -- since it.
-- be affordable rental cars are stick in our standard.
Which is just my case did you think you're showing I -- this well is nineteen.
And if you want your own message it's 2999 you go to our website humor dot com you can't put any message that you want which I financially every useful for -- -- That what mountains on.
We have on the street Louis Missouri and yeah we do have some of those -- of the fifty million that you mention out there we we -- an issue well.
Because it's magnetic I was I think -- if you're hitting hat into the business of -- -- doesn't -- that -- isn't.
Hey there John -- -- -- -- that's our -- yeah however that magnetic so you have to kind of fly.
Here the question.
Is if you haven't met a few little things you did it.
Is there another solution lists and get out of about a Boeing worker that's -- -- -- has amount relates.
I don't know how many dollars it has -- magazine but it also has velcro parents out there and you can just such that they don't look at it as well.
You -- -- one of these ideas that we think it's fun and we joked around about it all day yesterday but not enough -- with the right.
How do you sell any of these things people actually got -- and yes I -- did you think pool.
Well -- its -- a lot of upon the responsible thing -- -- the kind of a novelty but it's stunning to me is that.
There's a study done by -- research that showed that 20% of people's workdays are taking up what the unwanted eruptions.
That's our biggest -- action -- And -- corporations.
That literally want their logos printed on them with whatever phrase they use it's for people -- have dedicated well.
-- didn't sign a copy -- -- had Xerox machine copy machine privacy does not only want it for myself and that's been breaking news if you're in a relationship they've -- married a bedroom privacy -- I think the -- yeah -- new ideas for yeah.
The -- of party hat and thank you -- and that's right John we get.
Last word on this.
-- -- -- -- -- -- Yeah I think you're having a lot of -- we're having a lot of interest from a corporate perspective of people trying to get their own logos and their own sayings.
It's -- -- -- pretty well received.
-- silver Fox Business.
We want to talk about numbers but it's it says it's been meeting my expectations for sales.
Well we think it's really -- we have talked about it for the last days judge -- an awesome idea.
Could change your diet you want to work yeah.
Then that my mother -- -- -- kind of a.
Cool -- you can pay for their got.
Just like the coffee has really -- back at noon tomorrow and check out of Hulu and iTunes that we'll see you thanks T Mac vs taking some extra time and that's the -- together.
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