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The economy may have kind of -- in the forefront of course in the discussions at the G-20 summit last week the president Obama's surprise trip yesterday to Iraq.
Brings geopolitical risks right back into the spotlight -- -- talk about that this morning with Willis sparks is here in studio with this analyst at the Eurasia group's.
Global macro practice and it was you know good to have you by the way well thanks for coming in it is interest in that.
It all these major meetings whether it's the NATO get together -- the the G-20 really focus on the global economics alone for good reason I'm sure but.
Should we be talking more about Iraq more about Afghanistan more about geopolitical risk -- And we are well certainly I think that -- Obama has realized that he's got a variety of audiences in the United States and in Iraq.
Who wanna be sure that he's got -- -- on the ball there with all the talk as you say about the economy that -- -- the financial crisis and Afghanistan and Pakistan increasingly.
There is a risk that if there is a spike in violence in Iraq which it has been Alaska there has been over the last few days particularly on Monday there was a bombing that killed 36 people wondered how are very.
Another one yesterday.
That that the worry is that if people believe that the new US -- does not have his eye on the ball in Iraq that the situation could get worse.
Of course it's political liability for Barack Obama could be blamed for that.
Iraq is one of the things that bush.
Actually passed along to Obama that was perceived to be in relatively good shape we're getting better not worse well the perception wise that things have stabilized and it fell off the -- do you sort of -- because of what that wasn't true well there are a lot of issues in Iraq that is essentially been postponed rather than -- and one of them we're seeing come to come to the surface at the moment and this may be related to the violence we've seen.
Is the issue that a lot of the Sunni tribal leaders -- the militia leaders that -- partnered with the United States to target al-Qaeda.
That partnership has now formally passed under the control of the Iraqi Government.
Essentially the Shiite led government in Baghdad has promised a lot of these Sunni tribal militia leaders.
That if they hand over their weapons that they're essentially going to be given jobs -- -- be folded into the new government.
That hasn't really happened yet for a lot of reasons including the fact that.
The lower price of -- gives the Iraqi Government less money with -- to create jobs for literally more than 90000 -- -- that -- -- -- on -- on the oil price and the Sunni militia leaders are asking themselves at the moment is this a good time for me to put down my weapons so you know to the extent that the US is gonna have less influence over time not -- particularly as we -- big US troop draw -- in the first half of next.
Doesn't think so what do you do if your President Obama because you're walking -- a fine line here in a lot of ways each campaign on the fact.
That he was against the Iraq War and insists that he wanted to end it or wants -- and -- is still saying that that you you you have to try to do that in a way that you don't just come -- say.
We're pulling out of this country and it goes.
You know goes to Allen in in in no time and also how do you know what what advice would be given -- the president try to bounce them.
Well he's got to preserve as much flexibility as he possibly can in the actual pace of draw down.
It's you know -- Obama made the point during a town hall meeting in Istanbul before he even arrived in Iraq that.
Just because I oppose the war doesn't mean that we can pull troops out overnight we have to do this and responsible way.
It's a monitor that he's gonna have to keep repeating.
And he's gonna have to periodically remind people that would all the things going on the world right now.
He has not lost sight of -- tell -- in Iraq is that why he went there because the White House line was hey it's closer to Turkey than -- is to Afghanistan but more more to it and that I think there's much more to them now and again I think it's a political liability for for a press -- Obama.
If there is a spike in violence people say hey you have mentioned Iraq in a while maybe you forgot about it and that will be your fault if this if this happens.
But I also think substantively he wants to demonstrate to various Iraqi groups that are already beginning to compete for turf and resources that the US may be leaving but they're not -- yet and there is still US influence and back.
You know final thing because this is what you guys essentially -- -- -- Eurasia group what should companies take away from this I mean they they see that name.
Hypothetically or even in reality last few days the violence starts to spike up at a place like Iraq that they haven't been thinking about as much Brian what do you think about if -- -- if your company that operates all around the world multinational.
I think that that what what the take away for a lot of investors and companies is that there are just so many different issues going on the moment and there is really a lack of international leadership it's not necessarily the fault President Obama the US government the reality is that there are more players on the international stage today playing a substantive meaningful role in international politics and they're used to be.
And it's gonna take time for a group like the G-20.
To be able to come together and to coordinate -- some of these issues if it's even possible it's going to take time and that means we're gonna see more political risk over the next two or three years or five years.
Not less so know that going in our Willis interesting conversation thanks for joining us we appreciate very much.
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