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Or quick shots of a different sort might victims today Paul Bonnie my good friend from and longtime.
Business partner many ways pulled -- I think -- research.
Mark Starr -- from T three capital -- -- live -- three live alright guys let's talk about -- -- the start but the economy.
Poll -- -- while I was out with Lyme Disease we were trying to figure out the no brainer trade.
Gap and the no brainer trip that we came up with.
Is short bonds short bonds -- -- -- -- rates have to go higher over the next years that's -- a look at that one yeah yeah a couple background things so one of the longest strongest -- in the market basically -- -- Is the decline in interest rates going that probably 1982.
When ten and thirty year treasuries were 1516%.
Now they're trading at 44 and a half percent.
Has it been I'd just -- a long term trend from the fifties into the seventies it was declined.
From the southern these two today it's been a decline yet the -- we had this massive period of inflation stagflation and we raised interest rates to get out that well.
I don't know why after thirty years are you expecting the trend to -- out well it's a couple things so short term rates are controlled by the government.
-- overnight rates if you listen to what's coming out of that now there's not a lot of room to cut rates anymore right the next step is -- -- -- -- the next that's probably a race.
So that's that's short term rates but what's more interesting as long term rates were to -- by the market.
And that's supply and demand.
And so it it it.
Mark let me -- let me put it could get you on that so I mean -- -- to do do we make any sense at all looking hit nothing but higher rates over the next two years how can inflation and treasuries not go up.
The rate on treasuries not go well and.
I do you think you know you get at higher rates and higher inflation but the fact is it's all about the trade at this point -- that it was last time I was on -- right now financials is where.
You have to look that is controlling the market and it's a matter what happens then there -- the market.
To put the financials here.
It got a binary outcome I mean these are all collapsing -- to zero because the balance sheets really are completely insult there are -- to those balance -- or.
They're gonna -- because things are going to be okay.
You could have made a 100% half the financials in the last two weeks yet active -- how many people at home should be trying to make a 100% in two weeks on the financials in the middle of a falling market.
Plus the fact that the technical tell -- what's gone on right now that we have a 50% retracement in the financials now after today's action.
A little bit different -- like we could we could actually tester was again.
Where we could retraced back to a basic level where actually we should see some.
You ever tell you did a timeframe that I assume is much more quick.
Short term than what Pollard talked mostly the next year to you think over the next year to the financials are actually good trade one way or the other I think over the front and next year to the financial market trade on alongside -- -- that financial gonna -- that was okay.
I think we've got a lot more down before we see outlining -- expo have you found how did I did that I want to drag along the excellent food.
-- big and index for the finance yeah -- well there was a big bounce here and I guess one of the things that I was looking for with some excitement about he'd be.
The recent housing bill that that could put a bottom on.
Mortgages or at least temporarily -- -- -- -- it did you get reflected in the -- did you sell in today's downdraft.
A little bit actually but what I think what drove the stocks now are talking very short term but that the SEC came in and created a new rule about short -- I do agree that and that's I think what we had a lot of people who had these naked shorts they basically just had to to rectify that situation.
You know they didn't even need the new law it was old law in place already are not allowed to short sell things about locating -- -- could feel when you read it that's what -- you even if he wanted to.
It's just so short still naked that no absolutely not so it's the first thing you have to do in the short sells you have to call your.
-- -- -- -- -- It was okay.
I got an entirely different idea on this -- 32 to get it.
What is the bottom line are you looking for -- So decided to chart on trade you're not gonna lose a lot of money and get 50% upside in any kind of a year or two if interest rates start to go out.
I think when it happens it's gonna start happening very aggressively polio -- we trader Marc Marc -- -- bottom line -- I thought.
You know it was too easy that but the bottom -- two weeks ago I think we're probably get it tested again.
And it's just a matter -- you know we need a capitulation bottom in order for us to be happy I got a short term trade but the real housewives of New York -- -- -- the -- doesn't just.
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