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But the fact is is -- come -- Tracy Byrnes has kind of happy Friday.
Quite the week not markets up four points but it's like a little bit of it actually looks like Mount Everest a little -- -- -- doesn't yeah.
Among advocates whose side yeah I -- basically fallen off the other side so this is -- have quite.
It's been it's been a rough week there's been so much going on to actually there was information overload but many days -- much better.
Mornings and afternoons it -- will -- next we've had a lot of mornings where.
You know premarket trading it seems pretty good trading up in Europe we open up to the green everything's positive and then in the afternoon nobody wants to stay long -- -- cells often listen we're doing the exact same thing today.
GDP numbers came out of course this morning five point 7% increase in December GDP.
And you know I know involved and -- in the numbers shreds -- you gotta give it props on one hand it's better good.
I think the big thing that we're all taken away from -- is a lot of it had to do with the slowing process of liquidating inventories little inventory -- here and there but we're not still -- -- consumer buying anything.
Nor are we seeing a company making any.
It is what it is I mean I I I and I don't read too much into it right and exactly what you're gonna get a lot of political spin but I that you -- to understand.
It's been viewed the last two quarters it has been an improvement but it isn't this much of -- improvement we will slide back next quarter and the following quarter and you said this thing still has two more times to be revised.
In any of you who prod -- revise a little bit low.
The GOP definitely but your point about the spin -- we already had Christina Romer coming out saying.
Never the most it's the most important piece of economic data that we've had this point and I think that's in the east is an awful thing to say because it isn't.
Tell the people that it is because then what happens next quarter.
When GDP comes in at 2.2 percent.
On the sun that one's gonna run for the hills but went back and that's we're back and another that you are going for depression this time.
And one's gonna freak out.
When they shouldn't it's it's it doesn't wreak Havoc on the stock market that -- -- you run -- you know these numbers -- on the market up I mean this time around not so much but.
-- and we had that great jobs number that was eventually red river rise as well but that -- market up so it's very difficult place for an investor that he these days.
The CEO of -- -- financial advisors is here again today and you.
-- -- you guys who are friendly what did you make of this number today and and how important it.
Well yeah I think it's probably important to traders.
Not so sure it's important to investors.
I'm a lot more concerned about the bond market than I in the stock market not the volatility in the stock market is -- is part of the game if you will.
I think one of the challenges that we're gonna have.
With the stock market.
-- here in 2010.
Is the fact that a lot of this earnings information you if you think about last year the end of the first quarter earnings were really really good compared to 2008 because 2008 was so bad -- -- had a lot of the companies and a lot of the mutual funds a lot of the trading groups.
Took all their losses as early as they could you know meaning they took him in 2008.
French Quarter okay.
Which left a lot of the expenses.
For the first quarter in 2009.
Actually taken in 2008 as much as they could.
And push their earnings out into the first quarter 2009.
Because everybody -- 2008 was going to be bad year everybody -- the fourth quarter was going to be a dad you're so what's the difference of -- really -- a little -- it's neck and everybody expected take -- hit when everybody expects to take the hit.
That makes the first -- looked really really gut.
OK so that happened a year ago.
So what's gonna happen this year.
Well it's going to be very very difficult to beat those earnings quarter to quarter same quarter lag issues important -- can be very very tough.
Plus every but nobody did those accounting.
Things that we just talked about it 2009.
They wanted it all looked good fourth quarter so that's a challenge for the market you just have to accept expect that.
But also if you look at this bear market rally that we've had since you know last march and April.
You have to realize that thin volume on that this is just -- -- -- rally has really has not been an investor's rally.
And a lot of the the amateur money -- vs the professional money still on the sidelines in cash like investments.
And that worries me because in the last year.
For every dollar that went into stock based funds thirteen dollars one in the bond based funds.
Bond values therefore have been bolstered.
With interest rates very very low interest rates to go down credit quality didn't go -- so what cause this rally in this run in the bear in the in the bond market.
Was simply supply and demand because people either went from equities.
Right into bonds and -- -- from equities in the cash.
For less than half a percent.
And then chase yield out on the long side for bonds and drove this baby -- But -- where where we go from here because it's two point about earnings.
-- they pulled things -- 2008 but you're still talking about cost cutting to beef up the -- well I'm where I still have not seen revenue increases.
And moving money into the bond market right now -- there precarious boy I don't know -- Traits about that you actually right you do not want to do that you need to get out of bounds if you're in -- you do not want to go win the bonds if you're not in them.
Unless it's very short maturities in five years at the longest three years or less preferred.
And what you want to do there is when you have a steepening yield curve like we -- And with interest rates moving up when the Fed finally stops buying all the treasuries that they're buying those interest rates are gonna go up.
Fed has to do that -- -- politically it's easier for them it's more righteous for them to stave off inflation.
By not buying treasuries than it is to raise that Fed Funds rate so when they do that it's gonna cause interest rates to go up in the free market system current values like the old airplane.
Well on the county and some of -- you know absolutely dead heads talk about it right we have Tom -- we have -- Donald -- even coming out today saying markets you know that we -- -- I don't think about something else that what we're talk about here's kind of big picture with the bonds okay.
Let's go bigger picture than out on the -- -- looks look look what's happening internationally.
Greece's got a real problem on their hands.
They're they're looking at possibly being excluded from the Euro calculations.
China came in and what's going to do somewhat of a liquidity rescue for Greece and now they thought secondarily about that pullback.
That does not bode well for low interest rates.
That means interest rates are going up internationally.
They're gonna go up in the US is so you're absolutely right you do not want to be in bonds or going into bonds so the question is what do you do -- you're not -- that what do you do it.
You want to be in cash alike.
Investments -- short maturities.
Treasuries okay short maturities but not getting anything -- -- well you're you're not but but but what -- also remember -- It's it's just as important sometimes more important -- that -- not get something meaning a significant loss yeah.
A lot of people don't understand the be modified duration.
And that's -- -- -- all dealt with that before but it's a formula.
That win when you get your product out of the formula somewhat of an algebra equation.
You get a factor and that factors to say you do your calculation on a particular bond as well for bond funds were for bonds but.
And you -- you get a factor of five that means that if interest rates go up 1% the fair market value that bond will go down five.
That's the ratio you start doing these modified to -- calculations.
I -- Port of portfolios for bonds you get 161718%.
Yeah modify durations -- very very scary for people that we're chasing yield.
Dance and you gotta be careful saying listen just yelled out and dig -- CEO -- -- financial advisors thanks for being with us and thanks for having me decisions that you and again okay.
All right we'll be right back with a whole hour on the future of television and where in that -- thank god -- part of the future television.
-- -- NBC's tonight show -- -- to BK Television Food Network stand up to the growing competition of online entertainment.
What exactly is the future at TV.
And Chris Halperin but what are watching in 3-D are streaming or -- will be doing one -- -- -- who knows.
Today we'll be talking about television from the impact of new technologies to the debate over all -- carte cable to what kind of set the bar high for your living room.
We start with a view on the media stocks -- -- all Moby is a senior media and entertainment analyst with standard employers.
And he joins us right etc.
welcome to show thank you very much -- -- -- we have a lot.
To get two years so let's start with.
Let's go to what is happened with Comcast and with NBC why did that deal makes sense.
And what is Comcast really able to accomplish with that.
What I think you know do the deal is driven by Ole fashioned.
Vertical integration to get exposure across the content and distribution.
Areas of the media and entertainment value chain so you have.
The -- -- you know cable operator in the United States.
You know looking to by one of the premiere collection of you know cable and broadcast.
Assets out there -- hoping that this will provide.
You know the platform to be able to push out all kinds of new.
And innovative offerings to consumers whether it's video on demand in etc.
so I think.
I'm really this sets the stage for.
You know kind of the creation of a -- Major.
Player arguably the the biggest by far the biggest plan in a landscape I think the way -- deal.
Ships out should have major repercussions for the entire landscape for years to come.
-- -- in -- less so big picture though about the media entertainment sector in general.
-- this is a very tough place to be this these days.
At the same time now it has morphed into -- mini -- different sub sectors as well in Kansas invest in -- entertainment anymore.
So where are you seeing the good money go these days.
That's a great question I think -- you know just coming off you know what has been a phenomenal year for me media stocks you know you know -- anywhere from.
I know forty to 70% and and some -- actually a lot of stocks of doubles is the march lows.
I think you put it rightly.
You know right now -- it's getting to be exciting time again and there's a lot of things going on but we do have some really major themes that we're keeping an item for.
The DC and beyond you know I'm advertising recovery I'm obviously coming off of what has been a disastrous year in 2009 and and you have.
You know did the -- to my kid which is providing.
Another bright spot as companies continue to look for areas to monetize their content.
And you have what what turned out to be an unlikely the record -- for the box office.
Last -- -- point six billion dollars in new record in a recession year that was phenomenal.
And then you have the international markets he -- areas like China.
And India -- getting more more mall book is as the US market saturates technology advances I think you alluded to that in the in -- that commentary with things like 3-D now I'm getting all these rave reviews.
You know you saw -- -- now all kind box off his leader.
-- -- on 3-D 3-D television.
Stay -- on that that's coming to your home pretty soon.
An -- and all these at that things are happening so fast and -- apple again as you know you saw the you saw the newest that was made by the iPad launch pad and a lot of media companies are looking at apple in summer kind of debating is apple -- friend -- -- flow.
I saw there's a lot of things to be excited about but I can also tell you that there's some you know issues that.
Give us some concern.
With a things like cut regulatory framework has been very challenge and you know the the outlook for I think -- net neutrality etc.
You know the audience fragmentation is secular issues haven't gone away.
-- -- -- CDs and and and dvds took another dive in terms of you know sales of all these.
Products so I think it right now a lot of companies are trying to balance -- act and trying to hope that as the economy recovers this year.
Which is what our economic as -- forecasted.
By definition media companies media spots have shown some coronation over the years so actually hoping for another good year for the sector as a whole.
And your favorite in this sector is somebody that really embodies just about everything that you've been speaking about that's Disney isn't it.
Is -- we have -- buy recommendation on for a variety of reasons I think one of the strongest balance sheets.
In the entire media sects -- that cannot be over emphasized now after all of the what happened last in all the bankruptcies that we -- -- -- -- there and also I think kind of premiere collection of assets within -- well positioned to benefit from.
And advertise and are currently the biggest question we have for Disney's what happens -- you -- what you would become consumer confidence obviously people part of that be part of that story.
I'm so then you know you have to hope that.
Consumers -- -- respect to you know go back to parks again.
You know so all of those things that income in account for why we see what each company we evaluate their -- of businesses.
And we hold that didn't want diversified -- each company is the more they can weather this storm.
In any -- sub sector of the media industry.
So why then -- you have a cell on CBS are they not diversified enough.
Well that's the question I -- -- from investors I think CBS is unique in the sense that they have approximately two thirds of their overall revenues coming from advertising.
Which is consistent I think with the advertising recovery story.
-- also unique in the sense that it's almost actually more than doubled.
-- enough on the march shot trough and I think I -- back to march when they sliced their dividend by 82%.
And the stock traded as low as as as three dollars.
Now -- you know almost over thirteen almost fourteen Dallas I think.
You begin to be a little bit wary of the valuation and I think right now it's -- thank all of the good news is baked into the shares.
-- we're a little weary and his stock might be getting ahead of the other fundamentals.
Can you quickly talk about the Supreme Court decision and how that will affect the overall sector.
But how do you win bottom you know try to do some back of -- of the envelope analyses of the potential impact.
You know right now I got to kind of prefix that nice and it it's that we're not really it's not you know formal forecast that -- published.
But our preliminary study shows that on balance sheets you know could be a positive.
You know if it had to have some positive implications for -- and you know spend NBC off was the biggest themes for VCR in the Olympics and the the national the -- term elections which we were already looking for the mid term elections.
In all a lot of you very close and hotly contested races -- -- know.
Kind of an almost look like a presidential election year if -- semen and then you have this law which I think really.
You know cannot seem like.
It kind of they real life for proponents of of free free speech and the cooperation is too.
I'm having a bit you know kind of be wouldn't be.
The -- -- that they need to to spend much more than they have ever before so.
I think there is there's definitely is some cost to be optimistic regarding this this regulation is ruling.
-- -- People are thrilled to hear from you you've been awesome thank you so much for being with us my pleasure anytime soon M -- -- senior and media and entertainment analyst for Standard and Poor's.
OK so the recent very public fights between Cablevision and Food Network and Time Warner news glad that reignited the debate over ala carte cable basically paying for the channel as you want to -- So then -- the CEO of Buford media group and a former chairman of the American cable association he joins us now from.
Thanks for being less.
-- -- How are you OK then so let's talk about all this this whole notion of ala carte cable I mean I for one know I would basically get.
A kids' channel Food Network and be done that on him when I think practice -- that.
-- -- I you know I I do favor all -- card.
And not necessarily.
What my belief is is what.
Particularly the larger.
Cable operators would agree we have however serving rural small independent.
I have found that.
The five major programmers.
Who have accumulated in control most of that contents provided to consumers.
Has made it very difficult for me to negotiate.
In a way where I get attractive rates from my customers.
The independent operator.
Pays much higher price for programming vs the large conglomerates.
Course causes problems and charging higher rates the customer and I believe that.
You know if we can.
Go to an all carte pricing I can put my consumer in charge of the value the product what they're willing to to buy.
You know if you talk the average consumer there six to twelve channels that they predominantly watch and that they'd like to purchase.
And so many times the price of getting 5800 channels.
Is pretty exorbitant and I would like to give my -- -- more choice particularly since I can't compete on attractive price.
What how what -- the impact be here bent on the larger distributors that Time Warner cable's Cox Communications Cablevision.
Those folks of the world.
Well you know.
And I don't know if you look I testified I guess it was in 2004.
About I kind of define it is a train wreck coming.
We we ended up having must carry channels take ESP in -- CDC here.
Any of those and if they accumulated more more programming they could leverage that's carrying that additional programming often must carry.
Product and now.
And then if you don't have the distribution like millions of homes and in my case my average cable system has 300 subscribers.
It I find myself paying a lot higher prices.
To satisfy the programmer.
With no leverage of saying look you know if you charge me that much I'm gonna drop these other channels.
And I really think all carte pricing will create.
Maybe this is -- to your question.
A marketplace adjustment.
Now do I think programming will go away.
No I do think the less attractive ones that don't have the value the ones that my customers are disinterested in.
You know to stand.
You know not to stay up on the air but it's not right to take the more attractive programming.
That my customer pays -- to support the less attractive programming that they're forced to watch.
Then and there -- you're smaller.
Down there does this is this.
Is it an effort for you compete with the big guy that you need this ala carte pricing.
Could do the big guys need this as much as you do I guess is my question.
It's just that a larger operator that serves millions of customers.
Many use -- for instance retransmission consent.
Is it great threat.
If they can't come to an agreement and losing millions of viewers then with me if for broadcasters talking to -- your target.
Well 300 subscribers looking either pay this -- -- -- shut you off so I find that I'm stuck with taking whatever stone at me and it.
-- the historically all the way back when -- testified in 2004.
We have been paying higher prices.
We hear in an environment that cost more to deliver product -- for more rural.
And it and it's kind of interesting -- -- compared to what guys if you looked it.
The telephone industry.
They've had universal service fund where the big guys in the case at telephone industry have supported.
Pulling cable we really support the big conglomerates meeting we pay higher prices to support far as I'm concerned.
The lower prices that that larger companies you know are allowed to get so it's very frustrating to me.
You know you talk about the cost then of running the table and putting the systems in place is -- a big risk that -- pay that much up front.
And then you had cable customers that are buying one channel three channels -- forced -- won't that make those one and three and four channels more expensive than that to the rest of us.
Yeah I can't predict how the marketplace we'll settle out but.
One thing I do know the American public loves to buy packages then they just need better selection.
And yes I I can't predict.
How the market that -- you know take sports are getting very very very high.
Well and I mean and a lot of folks love sports don't get me wrong does that mean the sports channel be higher yes or does that mean.
The cost of the product.
Does adjusts itself comes down now I don't want to threaten the athletes but maybe they won't make fifty million dollars a year in the contract.
So my point is there will be a market correction and who better to determine what that market correction is -- the consumer.
And right now the consumer on the middle man the consumers mad at me the operator.
Because always she is one big fat bill.
They don't realize you know and -- if we get in a conflict.
The broadcaster says both Soviet dollar a month.
Well the consumer doesn't realize when you got hundreds of channels everybody wants to charge a dollar a month and you can see that plight I've gotten him so.
It's so I just don't have anything to leverage with.
You know there's 225 top operators in the country and there's a thousand of -- small guys throughout the country that are serving small -- And I'd been I've been crying ever -- for the last 56 years that we got to have some kind of an adjustment here.
And it is not happen it's only got worse and now technology and -- it might pentagon might.
Get a little guide and thank you so much that I thought.
-- The thought -- that -- -- thank -- -- Buford media group all byways and Tyler Texas as a volatile rose on the TV the commercial but if you're in the that is when we come back.
No matter how you choose to watch it it's what you're watching on TV that really matters we'll talk about like content is king Tyler -- -- -- -- I welcome back we're talking about -- this -- -- of -- -- rose.
Is Earl Campbell citizen of that 1977 -- -- trophy winner go ahead.
-- -- I welcome -- when Comcast what NBC it was a clear message -- what really matters in the industry this year lows.
Make sure it's the -- stupid joining us now to talk about the value of contact Kristi -- the editor in chief of TV guide.
Content is king at the end of the day we saw -- with Jay Leno right they thought they -- eleventh attack and they -- out all day you know fabulous dramas that were there even though they were expensive.
-- be going back to the drama.
I think we are going back to the dramas it can at least on NBC for the time being a mix of drama and reality.
It this I think that Conan Jay battle will be remembered as as -- a watershed moment in in TV history because.
It really highlights all the challenges to the business model right now for broadcast television.
You how do you find new -- -- -- you patty nurturing new talent.
Conan was supposed to be that new talent and didn't quite work out when he took over the -- We used to have just -- CC SN BC.
Then you had a movie channels come in and then the SPN and fox kind of shook everything up.
Now it seems like it's Rob Lowe and -- it seems -- -- some of those discovery networks great stock finally yeah went.
We gonna see a proliferation and explosion of a good dozen twenty different channels that.
-- it that are really taking -- from the others.
I absolutely I think so what we're gonna Comcast has been very clear that you make the real attractive part of the NBC deal.
Was the cable channels not the broadcast network and in they've they've publicly stated.
They wanted it for Bravo and highly targeted audience that that delivers to advertisers.
And you we've already seen it in cable -- you you you have a NASCAR.
Channel and you have a scifi channel and you have every slice of the market place divided for advertisers already.
But it will probably does is indeed isn't that targeted and it seems like it would be but every walk of life watches the real housewives of Boyd county.
I watch it -- -- doesn't.
And he showed that is your target right there your lack of targeting that I was inside the actor's studio on Bravo and right right but it's it's not the blockbuster.
Ratings monster of an American Idol -- right.
-- in the that the ratings are smaller they are target in an improbable tell you well.
They're getting you a higher percentage of high income households than.
Any other network can and that's that's where where they're competing for advertising dollars.
Why do you watch that show is topic for another shuttle Atlantis welcome is it's entertaining I get it but these cable shows to -- -- -- -- blocking I mean you have here Cedric on now you had Tony -- winning the Ward's right bunker right you have.
You know what let's let -- the -- -- awards in television really is to deliver.
Intense quality right mad men super high quality and guess what they only have to produce twelve episodes -- here.
And that makes a huge difference if you got to churn out 26 procedural episodes of a cop show it's really hard I think to sort of you know keep that that and that quality up so intensely week after week.
That's and it's a completely different skill set to deliver really successful procedural week after week.
Fox really set the stage with American -- would be everybody has -- look at that and say how do we get the next American -- but -- apparently it's not that easy to do because I haven't -- the next.
It's definitely not that easy -- Simon Cowell is is taking a gamble that he's got the next American Idol in his new show X-Factor.
It it it -- an age limit it's got him he obviously thinks that he will be a big drought we shall see.
But I think.
He would then the model is definitely changing what American Idol has that other shows don't have our multiple revenue streams so.
Are sold on iTunes and and you -- -- the cast goes on -- tour every summer so that's a revenue stream for fox and I think.
You know what that one of the things that they've done successfully in their new hit show -- Again had a dvd out of the first half of the season in time for the holiday season.
They're putting out -- albums of the cast singing songs I tuned down with iTunes downloads available the next day.
So -- show is kind of a model going -- But you know I don't think we're gonna see every cop doctor and learn television person the songs he can get the songs and I can the next -- but basically is a good luck frankly that your boys -- -- because I think.
-- -- I syndicated channels are doing this really well you get a show like I Carly I had kids I know -- I -- that you can email her she -- emails on the show like there's -- this interaction.
You know I mean is that where we're going with so I think I think idol.
Glee the kid shows get the web better than other shows us right now so.
They get that they're interacting with their fans and also.
TB -- dot com we have we have not only video guide which gives you full episodes of every television show.
I Carly is one of the most watched shows -- -- so you kids no parents know that the shows online.
They're not gonna see you know it in in an environment -- -- All right Christine now just leaving reality TV is dead we get.
And Snooki OK I thought what on earth little enough.
I want the Jersey Shore and a range of its -- -- wreck really was never again and -- it but but I would say.
You know -- there's always that there's always a new kind of -- Low -- high pick it up -- and that that I wouldn't follow hard English and aren't nice to insult I've ever heard one -- how shall go and powered the new a lot of sales and -- Jersey Shore -- -- -- -- people.
Well I have to say -- -- -- in the middle of the season right now there -- some there's some new shows debuting.
I think -- everybody's really fast is -- what is gonna happen idol with Simon and Paula gone it that.
We don't really know yet.
Will Simon's new show be the next big hit Simon Fuller producer of American Idol also has a new show that -- units and real high bridge.
-- the TV model everything's available.
For online it's called if I can dream.
It hasn't -- a lot of buzz yet but it is potentially a model for -- going forward you -- a drama and let's see it dramas.
There's some solid dramas I have to say that aside from -- And modern family on ABC which is -- which is half hour comedy page shows you know those are the kind of the breakout -- of the season the drama is.
Really cable owns them right now so.
Damages -- -- is great looking forward to trim man on HBO which is David Simon's new show you high hopes for that.
But where we are looking cable from the us state saw that cable.
Good to see you thanks for Obama watch cable goes -- and editor in chief of TV guide dot com always been the -- -- again as of the date on what's happening and just so you know I.
Jersey Shore huge ratings -- not seen hustling everybody and yeah.
And -- this is anyways seeing a lot of glowing halo right yeah.
It's it's a guy is a guy in the in this situation and -- -- mother baptize them decision.
Always from Jersey -- I would I would know anything about that that's what the is that what that we -- -- -- is apparently -- -- this is too -- and also have the people are you from -- long islanders that now on anyways tonight from New Jersey but it -- to your point my understanding was -- the new reality show is that -- -- backwoods of Georgia so that you know -- -- and sometimes -- felt vindicated because you have your -- whenever.
As -- bulls arguably the biggest event on television now except for maybe new Jersey Shore and -- so unique that even in this recession companies are still shelling out money.
For 32 spot here to talk about this his -- Walter Marino president and managing partner of STW inside advertising group located.
Is this going to be sold out.
I'd it will definitely be sold out it's going to be a very successful year contrary to the rumors that the prices have dropped and the all the other stuff that's going I it's not controversial year ever for Super Bowl advertising.
And I've been doing this for interviews stuff for the advertising part of the super wolf for ten years and never seen anything like it.
Why is it because of the the -- and this whole you know we have this pro choice thing -- on his pro life thing going on or is it because of the money.
We got a lot of company saying it's not worth it to spend all this money for two whopping minutes.
Yet it's it's now in the money but -- who's spending the money that's Chrysler coming back.
You get taxpayers that -- furious about that and and I can understand the flip side of it's the perfect place to to market a card domestic carbon that the only ones.
And -- GM out a couple years now they really stand out so taxpayer to -- Set about that but I think it's even worse when you get to things like the US Census Bureau spent -- 140 million dollars and -- -- out you know on the Super Bowl.
Which is such a mainstream.
Iconic kind of by and so you have like really who spending money in and how they're spending the money so.
I don't know it's just not the Tim Tebow thing and I'm -- I love the Tim Tebow thing because.
You know it -- that's the question of America's innate sense of fairness that comes out of the First Amendment.
And a free speech but you know this is -- when you get to commercials and and commercial ventures both meanings of the word.
It's not fairness.
So people know Tim Tebow Heisman Trophy winner is potentially doing an -- with his mom she had -- infectious disease and she chose still to deliver.
What ends up being Tim Heisman Trophy Tivo -- so they have been doing this that's given us an affair -- push back here many people calling for to be taken off.
You have you -- I'm kind of a spokesperson for Seton Hall University where I teach.
And I teach advertising there and obviously I'm slanted in my views of the issue.
But from Maine and advertising standpoint -- view I mean they took this and they said.
It's -- it's football it's responsible.
And you know there are arbiter is there a judges as to what you know -- go on the networks and and I think that that they've got a pandora's box now.
Because now you have man crunch which is a very very funny.
Gay oriented kind of commercial very funny -- -- this morning.
And down and I look at that -- I think that the messages you know -- can change my life and I think it's very funny it's like a -- payment lifetime.
But I that's the next point because last year the tone of everything in this country was down not only adds we're down that nobody wanted to be -- over the topple that change this year -- -- to -- funny over the top commercial yeah we are the the interesting thing is the -- -- just came back today they didn't even score because.
But by -- -- tests everything and in the pre testing all the funny commercials one.
And the Clyde -- for horses lost out they weren't even going to be back -- well the most recalled commercial -- list here -- guess what.
Quite strides this right saying we always say they -- edited a spot in the and the news is now that you know the -- -- -- -- going to be happy.
So he's a -- moment.
The coming recession -- again.
Well it is and that's funny because some pull out of sports events are becoming recession proof much madness was last year.
And nobody predicted the success that they would have the Super Bowl is Tom is not only recession proof it's growing cottage businesses around it.
Whether there and social media where there -- marketing where -- marketing research there affirms.
They can tell you the right elements to put into a Super Bowl spot for you to be successful.
And you consult with them and they do tracking research all the time I've never see some restrictions Super Bowl advertising ever know and all these people -- -- -- -- for doing that.
And really people watch and I guess that's something other arena thank you for being with us thank you for having it is in president.
Managing partner at STW -- advertising group chairman of -- But we'll let the coarsening of the -- Paris and Milan -- Button.
And -- come.
-- -- Welcome thank you for joining us here that.
-- found something on some.
Big -- pay any Internet but in the Internet programming the future of television.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- An online network about this new model of programming well -- -- that.
Welcome back we're talking about the featured television all hour long and when you think of web video it's usually.
You know YouTube clips Tracy and I want to say everyday -- -- cut in line with shows like this one -- -- the others like our next guests are changing that idea of producing quality content.
Specifically for the lead -- -- was the co-founder and president for the foot on networks joins us right now.
From -- all right -- we've been talking a lot this hour about multiple platforms multiple ways of getting your message.
-- on the people's eyeballs tell us little about how your company is accomplishing this.
Hi thanks for having -- You know we're pretty excited about that what we've done have a lot the years we create contents.
Original programming working -- -- the virtual studio model.
Where we've created from all over the world to have show like the end that some -- -- feed them some may be asked.
And we syndicate that says -- some of our customers -- -- create programming for them.
Some customers he's -- he simply hyper syndicate that -- to multiple platforms.
So -- -- everybody understands you're not actually on a television I have to watch you on my computer at my phone wherever I can get the feet.
We actually are on -- He had in many places if you part of the new service -- if you -- AT&T you guys.
83 Time Warner and some market.
You can get our programming through video on demand that it is certainly on demand programming verses seemingly nearly on that on the television.
-- and in many cases do you work with an advertiser to create a program that specifically caters to that advertiser.
We did -- In fact that that's absolutely one and sat -- customers -- that he -- that advertisers and brands today they are almost becoming media companies in their hand right.
In other words they are creating programming.
On their and to communicate their messages.
-- and -- in some cases be it traditional media.
And they are program that we've done for companies like Karl at the corner which is a very high and -- watch -- How we created high and battleship for them called city by city and -- live exclusively for them we ran.
A pretty well on that front of the shadow and we put overlay ads on top of the shadow and based on amazing lift an awareness.
Among the audience that they -- going after.
Says with the -- -- you can actually target programming.
When you do it this way you can look forward destinations and syndicate only to those places where there's a high percentage of the people that your brand -- interest and so it was still.
Are you finding that people are watching you from their phone waiting for the -- on the trainer.
Sitting in a doctor's office waiting for the kids to go and stuff like that.
Yeah it's amazing actually our analytics that -- is quite detailed and and we did that obviously for that week did understand the trends in the patterns of viewership across different -- and it's interesting to see golf hits for example -- his.
A family and high handed shot any he had golf program it obviously runs on line -- -- runs on television VAD.
But -- predominant platform is the I found.
And that you -- Our thought is that people are taking that -- downplaying it taking it to the golf course and actually practicing their swing as they'd look at the -- get their cat and then he got Smart girls at the hardy via the primary bash before I came on Andy -- targeted at tween girls -- -- most of the viewership coming from online sites.
Not you kids -- much interestingly because that says fairly young audience that targeted website where we placed our video player.
-- and that -- strains it's also quite popular on who lived.
Jan -- part of a really small group of people that produce the golf show for a local cable channel.
It's and that sort of thing work with you and -- relative standpoint how expensive would it be for.
-- very small brush company produced their own show and they go to you and say hey we like to use your.
All of your different outlets.
Absolutely in fact we have lots of customers to only that the syndicate programs that they've -- And ended a price -- -- in some cases we will price that I view these can you tell us you won 20000 people ever.
Two week period to see -- shadow because that's what the advertiser demands.
-- and that's what will do you have he need two million we can do that as well.
And it's again price per view -- our -- PM if you're familiar with that term cost per thousand views.
And we're able to work with our customers to ensure that that content -- the desired audience.
-- -- check it out it's on networks with an S dot com we're watching Amy -- right now actually she's on her little show Smart girls up right.
-- thank you so much for being with us.
You're welcome thank you for having me.
It's cool concept.
I had to know it is in the -- lot of different platforms -- Hussein now on different animals.
-- -- -- they've revolutionized watching movies at home and managed to change the business model of movie rental companies along the way twelve point five million -- strong Netflix is moving into instantaneous television streaming.
Did tell us more is Steve swayze the VP of corporate communications at Netflix.
CB you're just -- my coming get sick -- -- had record numbers rocket the stock rocket I am I think developers left on the planet it's still actually goes to the brick and mortars.
Tell us how do you have done this and where you're going in the future.
Well first racing get a two week free trial any hey -- yeah.
Why -- -- netflix.com.
And we invite you to do -- on Netflix did change the way Americans rent movies you know in 1999 Netflix came -- -- subscription service.
Which you could have unlimited rentals for one low monthly subscription and that really change the behavior of most folks not you Tracy but there -- Most folks.
Truth -- their movies delivers them at home or now instantly on the TV you're on to the PC or Mac.
And Netflix is -- that with this unlimited viewing.
One low monthly subscription starting -- nine dollars a month and it's really great convenience.
Great selection and great value all those three in to get it together make the and unbeatable proposition.
-- -- -- -- a friend you ball one of those disc players with the disks were the size of an old album and that lasted about what three months before that was replaced by dvds on dvds it lasted a little longer or moving away from dvds aren't we we're moving to where it's going to be.
-- -- -- a big server you guys have.
On the my computer at home and I can watch it instantly isn't it.
Well absolutely in fact Netflix is growing both sides of the business we have dvds by mail is that the traditional business.
And also instant watching where you can push play on your PC or on your Mac or on your TV if you have a Netflix ready device.
And that is going faster than our -- base business.
We're gonna spend about 600 million dollars this year Netflix will with the United States Postal Service sending dvds and Blu-ray -- the people.
But we have more people that are also watching dvds more of those people are now streaming because we have this you -- -- growing into the streaming functionality.
That is directly to your TV -- Blu-ray disc players by a great consumer companies like Samsung and LG electronics and best buys -- insignia brand.
We have directly to the TV LG electronics again has the TV that streams Netflix instantly.
Vizio does the Sony for obvious and of course the game consoles which have huge install base is the Xbox-360.
Has been streaming Netflix for about fourteen months.
Earlier and late last year in the fourth quarter we announced that -- the PlayStation 3 PS3 by Sony.
Will be streaming in the -- we've got a great pick up on that and just last week -- a couple of weeks ago we announced that the Nintendo Wii.
We'll be streaming from Netflix coming this spring so.
Those are the three jewels and that the kept the console crowned the Netflix now owns and we've got this great install base.
And again the biggest installed base -- PC and Mac users and they've been able to stream for more than a year and the -- their places covering all bases to get movies you instantly.
And as I say with twelve point three million members.
-- renting -- and many of them at least about half of them streaming watching instantly on their PC -- on their Mac.
Or on their TV Netflix got you covered.
But -- a gold -- it's pretty much abolish the world the DV easing -- all the way streaming I mean it's about nine dollars a month now to get -- you know dvds per month.
So what's the price if -- wanna stream it and at once -- do that why would have the other.
Service so -- -- essentially a -- Iran service.
Now actually Netflix is growing both sides of the service dvd by mail which is the -- traditional service now streaming which has been online for a couple years.
The fact is we're gonna be shipping dvds and Netflix for at least twenty more years will be shipping dvds in 2030.
But we'll be streaming more and more content at some point the dvd shipment will decline but it's still growing.
They say we're gonna spend about 600 million dollars this year and their political spent about 700 million dollars next year with the United States Postal Service.
But over time that's money that will be shifting to the studios and that which will become one of the studio's largest customers.
Buying licenses to stream content insulate the beauty of Netflix is you have both.
Is -- watching on your PC -- on your Mac or on your TV with a Netflix ready device you have that instant watching streaming.
As well as.
Getting dvds and Blu-ray disc by mail for one low monthly subscription as he said starting at nine dollars a month.
That's an unbeatable proposition so if you don't have a title for instance you might wanna watch instantly or if you want -- have the portability in the convenience of it.
Put it you're Netflix fuel shipments he'll get -- next day.
And then you can carry around that dvd there -- no late fees ever Netflix and keep the dvd as long as -- -- -- -- watch it on on the road if you have a PC and you wanna watch it on an airplane or.
A portable dvd player in the car.
-- on driving of course -- We do have you covered both both as they're watching and dvds by mail.
Steve thank you so much for joining us congratulations on a great quarter and a higher success -- lucky in the future.
Thank you imprisoned -- -- separate paths.
I got without any rest is becoming -- -- on the -- -- the windows good level they do except right.
Thank you these -- from Netflix -- early -- in the market for a new TV -- -- -- -- -- that's that you just.
Street -- you know Netflix movies right on it when you hadn't ever got mine because it became someone they can use a word got if you cooked in reforming next time you watch a 3-D movie investigators you may want to consider.
Taking those glasses -- -- TDs just around the corner and soon you may be able to watch it 24 hours a day.
Right in your living on that when he -- he steal the glasses.
What do you -- -- bring -- I think she's Consumer Electronics Show -- -- Sony and a Discovery Channel announced a joint venture to bring a full.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- Into your home by 2011.
If -- is even more ambitious promising viewers there own the three sports channel and time for this year's World Cup which begins on June 11.
-- you people don't watch enough sports no we don't.
But a lot of promise and 3-D TV not a new concept that it's been -- -- before and had a lukewarm reception so what's going to happen this time anything different.
The test Tom Adams comes a founder and principal analyst -- Adams Media Research he joins us these guys.
For Monterey California.
Welcome welcome glad you're warm -- not tell me -- it.
It behind many say -- -- scouts watching with my kids do I have to -- climate -- glasses which you know I'm never going to be able fine because we lose everything in my house.
Put that nine and then watch the shows this is the part that makes me nervous -- that feel like -- -- -- -- -- -- Yeah.
Not at the glasses are -- right which which they would they will be but by the way here to -- reports Q what's in the theaters those won't work polarized.
-- -- we'll be different different technology.
And you get arrested and -- that's the big question with this whole thing is how much technology do I have to have.
To be able to enjoy these 3-D shows and I have to Wear big home what that looks like oh -- -- well there's -- or whatnot and -- go to enjoy it.
Now I know they'll be their their glasses they're not quite as cool and and -- -- where's the polarized glasses and in theaters -- are liquid crystal shutter glasses or crawl.
So is slightly heavier slightly book here.
Not much worse than good however having -- order pluses and its.
The old school recently business classes OK so is this where we're going and how we -- -- beat all -- -- all the time eventually.
-- I think you're not sure or years or decades probably.
I think that -- -- -- across the street which we are probably full decade away from having reasonable.
Quality glasses free stereo -- -- selfish.
For now -- be special that stuff big big movies like avatar big sporting events like the World Cup.
Tom are big sports fan you know -- on in the market for a new TV right now and it's gonna be huge not even big but this reason to be huge which -- hold off.
And wait for -- because sick I just don't wanna watch that.
The World Cup for soccer in three days if I get a three TV that would be worth it for me all the technology so much better and two and three years that it really wouldn't be worth -- -- first generation now.
Well that's that's an open question I think there will be continuous improvements in 3-D TVs -- the glasses.
But frankly than they have -- gonna -- the production of the treaty so well you know early generation three TDs.
-- -- generation Blu-ray players for movies.
You know -- will be putting out good three picture and the -- will be the entire production community has to learn how to shoot and stereo and then and make it both.
Interesting but not to dazzling have you seen that film that have been done there's a wide ranges.
Quality in terms of whether they are trying to do too many special effects and didn't hurting your eyes.
Or as an avatar and up and some great examples last year just sort of letting.
The three speak for itself and until a great story -- have the depth in the picture.
Yet I've been in this theaters when it's too much and you walk out you need to like -- so let me.
-- what's the timeline on this how how soon are we gonna see this stuff hit the stores to chris' point.
City wait a couple of months is it going to be out ours is something that we're talking about you know a year down the road.
No for -- will be getting in.
In June according to the consumer electronics companies that the CES show in January.
And and then they're working on this very you know fairly quietly furloughs for many many years for equipment for decades.
Aggressively for the past couple years.
As the guy HDTV launched the prices came down for that and they start looking for the next cool thing down to -- two allow them to to make a little money.
So we'll be pushing him hard starting in June.
Couple seconds here left Tom game changer not in your mind or at least.
You talk in a decade down the road before we -- game -- No I think it immediately because popular for -- movies and sports people are embracing it that -- rapidly in theaters obviously with avatar now the biggest film of all time.
And largely I think because it's so cool look at -- -- and people are gonna want that -- -- -- think.
And -- -- you're great and I'm glad the Skype.
Lasted less than -- Tom had -- -- analysts and founder of Adams Media Research -- moderate California.
-- and they let us.
Thank you -- right up next this capable around the corner even I am gonna watch that I am.
-- there have been a lot of well that's what ambulance yet maybe but with so many options and functions we CBC to be talking about when you talk to our experts in a way it.
Plasma -- ED projection TV's Internet streaming.
As we just where parity in 3-D the options for TDs have grown exponentially.
In the last you know just the last the -- -- the technology to advance these puppies is not slowing down so what do you need to noble for stepping foot.
In an electronics go to Y need an outside Paulson is here -- customer solutions manager at best buy all right I need to know it's his personal now side.
I'm going -- even as early as tomorrow.
All right so yeah it has technology changed so much that if I was shopping last -- completed an experienced now and will be a completely different experience this summer.
What I think the first step is the awareness for you as the consumer you have to realize that.
The technology especially when it comes to home here home entertainment -- county.
Is constantly evolving.
You know there's -- there's always a hesitation out there it should I wait should I should I -- now.
You know as opposed to waiting because the technology maybe it's good enough now or maybe it's gonna ball later -- one gonna buy today is going to be obsolete tomorrow.
That's gonna happen no matter what you know -- TV that you buy is never going to be quite as good as the TV that you buy two years from now.
As far as what's available today.
Has come such a long way from what was available at say five years ago as far as what you can get out of your TV not just in the TV experience -- sort of the whole home.
That in my opinion yes go by if you need to Marten.
-- -- I've made it very clear that I still on television from 1994 and now it's on principle that I'm trying to get to keep -- I think that there is snow.
-- would you watch it unfortunately like Batman got kids homeless super someone like -- Anything is better than what I have right now so what would you get.
Well I mean it depends on -- obviously what's going on your house the size of the room and you know how many people watching are you looking for.
A you know sort of certain personal basic TV you're.
Or a more like sophisticated high -- you know home theater experience kind of a TV personally you might get some more of the home theater experience kind of TV just because I think.
Now what you pay the dollar amount you pay you're gonna get a better value.
Both you know -- time sort of entertainment happiness value out of -- For example we have a a Sony forty inch TV it's 899 -- best -- Has the capability to.
Watch high definition TV in the best resolution ten ADP.
So things like the Super Bowl which is just around the corner.
Are going to look phenomenal on that forty inch screen.
In addition to sort of the all the other possibilities like Internet connectivity but.
You move on its 900 dollars online thirteen hundred in store is that right yes so would I get a deal by shop online exactly I mean it's sometimes you just recommended -- I have -- I just push but.
Prices online with best buy are cheaper but you have the capability if you'd like to do an in store picked up.
We can paperwork get the online price and then just come right source storm -- it up I recommend doing that if you wanna get the best price then talked to one of our blue shirts have distorted -- -- sort of extras the accessories -- -- things like that that you need to like get hooked up and make it look great.
Do I have the option of buying it in stores Pena online price having you personally -- it install it.
Well any cables and you come to your night and a sweep my floors I -- my -- and -- but at what Michael and I already know I want.
46 since LED yes I know what I want.
Unique to a three brands won't.
What do most the people want in addition to knowing the size and the type they want it is certain gadgets certain.
Attachments that you that are really hot right now.
Yeah -- as far as you know the brand question I think some of the best selling these in the market are made by Samsung Samsung was one the first pioneers of the LEB technology.
LED you know -- when it doesn't I was gonna give you a little bit brighter sharper more vivid color than traditional LCDs do.
Plus it's going to be a lot more power efficient gonna -- when your energy bill.
And I'd I this -- all around look better it's also got a -- win slander then sort of profile it's gonna take a lesson a footprint on your wall when you get amounted.
So as -- the features go.
Pretty much all the LED TVs especially -- size range have.
The cool thing are there the Internet connectivity possibilities he can you guys talk about Netflix before you can stream Netflix right onto the TV puts a tear either wired or wireless Internet connection.
Just like a laptop computer he can get movies right away instantly don't have to wait for them to mail you did this.
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