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The economy down at the personal income and spending numbers are just -- got for the month.
Of the December -- let's start you off here -- the personally -- side up by.
Zero point 4% -- above the zero point 3% consensus and at least one of the survey's personal -- up zero.
Point 4% personal spending.
Also higher by zero point 2%.
The consensus was your point 3% a little bit below -- -- but again.
There's the numbers we see slight increases -- -- personal income and personal spending those numbers just.
Being released at this hour -- more economic data later in the morning Dow futures up 54 points just about where they were before this number came -- S&P futures higher by five and a half.
A little bit below where their games -- but again.
-- up a little bit after the Exxon mobile numbers came about a half an hour ago let's go back to -- Silverman managing partner king's view management.
An economist -- Bruce Willis is also with us here in studio we think -- you're good to see about well.
If you -- the that assumption it was a little disappointing we are looking for a little higher moved here.
On the holiday spending but I guess -- to be expected with the consumer still in the process to -- deleveraging and unemployment rather high.
I think and said the data wanna get a look at that.
Personal spending in the in the real spending numbers to see your personal savings he's being in the real spending numbers to see really get a glimpse of where they can do the condition of consumer is right now.
Let me tell you about November spending first the ball was replies to being up more zero point 7%.
Previously zero point 5% effectiveness you know that's good news given these people were getting on it on -- -- a post Thanksgiving sales and that is the senate consumers slowly -- come back next up will be go to the savings rate 2009 personal savings rate.
Four point 6%.
The highest since 1998 when you do it four.
For the year I guess that's the yearly number right the four point -- -- -- yearly number that came out December personal savings rate four point 8%.
Up from four and a half percent the month before that's a little bit of a problem and we didn't have paradox of thrift when people are beginning to increase their savings because they're connect you with.
Problems if you coming in the road specifically raising credit card payments perhaps.
Re sitting home once a cracked so now we've read into these numbers already filled say that.
-- to consumers not quite back yet worried about a number of things -- as -- points out.
Thinking about saving more money in that the savings rate is going up when he make it.
Well you know for the economy it's tough when consumers saving but I think.
On the other side its nice to see that the American consumer is starting to save right and in it will help them in -- deleveraging process and that we you know.
We are starting to plan for these.
Things coming down the road we've heard about that kind of paradox between.
Do I wanna save you know people are doing it because they have to write killed in -- night I thought we had this epiphany -- in America that knows.
No I mean we've we've got a consumer culture here that it wants to span that wants to invest that wants to take risk and if we could go back it would the second the -- old -- conditions were optimal we didn't have to worry about defaulting on our home loans or credit cards -- student loans surely would but it's not in the snap and go back for a long time.
Mean we have a new reality here -- people are going to be savings more and in fact they expect to see -- personal savings rate.
In just over 5% here near term are so and that does -- to the economic recovery -- it -- is it puts a little bit of the campers that if we're gonna have a recovery it's going to be driven by net exports.
By business investment and out and unfortunately by in the short term government government spending yet and that's still what's driving things that's still a strike again if you -- at -- Friday number.
Real consumption -- the -- from domestic purchasers was one point 7% that is not what you build sustainable recovery.
Our you take all these numbers into account terms of how you treat the market here in the near term we've run up a lot started to sell off of the month of January when we're gone from here.
Well if it's tough to say we have come down quite a bit him now in January I think we may be due for some sort of bounce.
But we don't see compelling valuations.
Across the market so -- that we think that there could -- you can federal my pressure.
-- you'll hear -- correction 10% correction camper is what we think we've probably seen them all the different -- we'll see some sideways movement.
But we don't see any sort of bear market are bull market really resuming in -- -- we're gonna go back to the markets and update them in just a moment in get a report from the change everything else -- Joseph while you're here.
What you weigh in on the other discussion we -- having which are bigger picture economic issues about the deficit the president -- his latest budget today 2011 fiscal year.
Bigger deficits and we were discussing Phil and I the timing of when you attacked them -- know as I said earlier politically speedy maybe not politically expedient it's a lot of political pressure to do that now.
Economically wise or not to be thinking about bringing the deficit down now suppose -- -- two out on the economy is theoretically recovered.
Three things first of all when you go through this hearing are serious financial crisis that -- Gone through it's reasonable to expect -- you're gonna have some sort of sovereign debt issue down the -- okay.
In order to take action.
You need the -- administration and the congress he's moving clear credible and transparent way.
To begin addressing these issues meaning that they have to.
Put in place mechanisms.
That will begin the period on spending for even if you don't do it now say how -- yeah I would say how you're gonna do it commit to it in advance and -- -- your marker because you know to be quite honest.
Can't cut spending right now not and right because you can't you can't be the -- wolf you will help through the economy back into the ditch and that's counterproductive economically I would obviously I was.
And I guess it was a fairly -- -- there's -- fairly conservative economists is that fair to us in -- that that's how we McCarrick -- -- ride from turned political -- -- you can't cut spending now but you gotta tell us how you're gonna do -- -- -- a year or two out as the administration doing that and now they're not.
Not right in there they're not doing that at all.
What you're taking are taking half steps that are more symbolic than substantial and indeed the market will call them on this I mean look.
There -- real there's a real problem here Japan -- you king US oral inching ever so close interest sovereign debt crisis.
OK if we don't take steps to correct that now that's what's going to happen.
In the medium -- what will happen is the market will begin to bid up interest rates -- which will harm the economy so -- the Obama administration can't wait they know this respect.
They're gonna try to put together some sort of bipartisan commission to address this but -- -- -- signals but to be honest with you on the left -- we've had a bipartisan commission that work.
With the base closing commission after the Cold War group that all sorts of -- It's in the interim.
I haven't -- and the future without the -- is supposed to forever mark after -- -- good to have you in studio Joseph.
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