Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
Hey look questions that come my -- burns Chris Cotter.
We -- -- back ironically.
The studio this.
This is an almost immediately itself but looking at the background here -- we and a different studio.
I would go down once had not yet voted yes it and it sent a second crisis when you do that difference and -- and -- on Wall Street.
And which is that what -- was.
Say you -- -- in your coffee right now we're down 200 points -- -- -- to have outlets can't.
That could potentially cross the 101000 mark right now and that -- let's Brady -- senior.
Editors said this noticing the -- entry below 101000 on into day basis.
Since November 6 hasn't closed below 101000 since then reports yeah.
-- fought off a cliff and as you pointed out to a Charles there in the middle while awning companies that vick's.
Is skyrocketing as one not surprising whenever -- have about 200 days -- -- that.
But you know -- -- -- -- on levels that we haven't seen very often in the last 69 months so.
There's a lot of fear out there is lot of concern that criminal -- from Europe on the issues with.
Whether it's Spain Greece Portugal hungry.
All these countries sovereign debt.
Having you -- with its -- although like I gotta be honest just makes me sick in -- Yeah why it -- on the sadness Moody's dot I mean honestly like Moody's speaks on the Sundays.
But he mindset that billions United States again is in danger -- to our debt is in danger of being downgrades -- I -- -- -- When my my son when he's -- I tell them -- -- DS down the toilet so now.
Am I gonna do that no but does it scared to death yes.
And I think it's very some Clinton he they're just staring us in -- -- in the Obama administration up and saying -- got stopped this deficit spending that's killing you and -- -- and the way the rest of the world -- us.
At the same time now.
Our dollars at a seven month high against the Euro.
And Moody's that such a good job with the hole and he gets it way out I understand why why would certainly -- and -- -- -- -- I think of the whole -- -- why he's still even attend to this -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- In the -- an impact on today's trading and also just one final thing to -- I don't know how much it had an impact the weekly -- jobless claims.
Add to -- a little bit this morning that tonight at 830 year roughly so about it now with the opening market I mean.
I think that had some kind of an impact on -- its -- have more than that but there's a lot of nervousness right now about what we're gonna see tomorrow -- that things -- clearly I think that.
Right -- what number do we have to see you tomorrow.
Before anybody says wow that's really good number if we're up 25000 is that really do anything for its got to get on -- -- to keep up with population growth -- a month to month basis.
It's over a couple 100000.
That would be great numbers certainly much better than we've seen in two years would that make anybody that.
I don't know as a move the market is it -- people shrug their shoulders and say well.
It's okay but it's not great it's really hard -- you know what's your eyes but for them going because we've seen before as well integrity 5000 down last month so that could be revised better.
Certainly you -- that certainly will have an impact tomorrow.
But you know the other thing -- I was thinking last night when I saw -- -- earnings lip outs.
They blew up the earnings a little out there and expectations on all of these who hired me two and 3000 people who's hiring and -- -- -- -- planets.
Who's hiring in this day and -- and yet.
I thought the NASDAQ -- -- that's gonna pick up all of the you know.
-- cap tech names today in the NASDAQ nothing didn't help at all.
But you know it's interesting it's -- -- stories got John Chambers CEO of Cisco coming out saying.
We're at the end of the recession -- move forward full steam ahead and then you have the MasterCard CEO saying.
An island that yeah yeah I know that I didn't have cards and learn -- seventh sold off and that's the kind of damage 1415 -- so -- so -- we believe wearing.
Right and north Carolina's gonna play the united heat -- you which is really going to be disciplined I just -- Well I'll.
As the after the race -- ever play again this is when it comes -- with just that this it's impairment.
Robert -- with telegraph and the Georgia tech -- for years in the ACC at getting beaten up by the Tar -- so now it's finally -- of its one year with the heels are struggling a little bit and I am taking -- -- -- every time you're at the desk and does that -- quick -- -- away and it -- Obama ever since Roy Williams turned down jilted the -- technology I think that I played basketball for now first basketball and then and -- -- -- Played there may be coaching there and have a couple more banners aren't actually a couple of batters Kate -- -- thank you bring.
So -- so today you would have thought that was about to Canada still can right until it gets a little bit if you -- wouldn't do that.
Would I want to Ottawa and yes but we got recent news here in America let's start there and that's I think -- -- -- this is the thing that.
In the -- the treasury sort of forcing Merrill Lynch into the arms of Bank of America remember that.
Merger there at the end a lot of controversy -- around.
The shareholder meeting where they are voting whether or not they would approve this -- mega billion dollar deal or not.
Merrill Lynch had big losses at the time -- -- -- -- that they -- larger losses than we thought they did and they're gonna pay billions of dollars in bonuses.
Bonuses yes performance bonuses to these -- executives.
After this deal was completed now -- what the contention here is that.
The brass to be today particularly CEO -- Alicea for Geoff price and -- knowingly.
Misled investors and did not tell them how big the losses weren't and how can.
Radio did not disclose the size of these bonuses that's what's at issue here.
They've settled -- the securities exchange commission.
Again remember they had a summit last summer for 33 billion dollars.
Now adopting an eight to 150 billion dollars there including the North Carolina attorney general speak pretty NC back into this but.
Of course that's will be -- is based in Charlotte so the north on attorney general is looking into this.
The New York attorney general did not settle but we'll get to that in a moment -- so the same judge Jeff rake off here in New York.
Is when throughout this 33 million dollar settlement before to saying you know basically -- -- cover for B today.
The SEC was asleep -- the -- really took them to task evidence and he's got to hear this again.
Remember -- the case that he throughout the settlement is due to come into court march 1 so they're trying to get this settled before actually it's court is what's happening.
-- basically -- on and that's a separate front tonight news so so separateness and he helped in this investigation but.
Separate from that you do have it the attorney general Andrew Cuomo.
I've filing civil civil securities fraud charges against being -- the -- itself up.
And bringing an individuals that's one of the things break off had criticized him for.
Not going -- it is that he is filing charges against former CEO Ken Lewis former CFO Joseph price.
In addition to charges against the bank for misleading investors about the size of these losses of -- and about the basically would mislead investors about these.
Yet three billion dollars in bonuses there and it's brought he's accusing them off the app that is correct -- -- they in terms of who wants to avoid this from really going through the court system that is that that you may be at -- wants Israel do they lost this at all they're willing to pay a large chunk of 159.
Dollars -- -- to to be done -- -- Cuomo's office saying.
Pretty -- towards the bank's management misled shareholders board and lawyers public and the taxpayers of course.
All -- an -- they saying they find it regrettable disappointed in York AG has chosen a filed -- charges they believe.
Totally without merit and it was worth 33 million to us last summer it's with a 150000002.
Is now -- please let's just regular check.
Let's move on so -- I'll let you know was Smart -- if I don't get more money has been its key patents and then the best is in the midst of all this.
-- things redecorating his office yes but the the multi million dollar -- which returned to fabricate them find out -- a toilet after that it doesn't -- -- we thought it was -- well you know opposite and but I appreciate.
But still public beta and one boy all right Robert.
You want to tell us what's going out so listen.
-- it just doesn't make a full year profit despite the recall you know when we've had you know the -- DOT's -- the -- into the Prius now.
Brake problems there which we heard a little bit about that already yeah you've got to the recall gonna cost two billion dollars -- -- -- the stock has really gone bad here -- that.
98 91 dollars and eight cents back on January 19 the -- -- coming out on the 21.
2.3 million vehicles recalled since then yeah they're.
Basically it's fallen out of bed.
Talking to traders and investors strategist that they actually think you know things can't get too much -- -- this point you know today it's interesting to say that.
A three to seven daytime pronouncement that Todd Clark and Albert compliment.
That -- just over time they see these things through to seven days investors.
You people who wanna get out to walk away the store and it pile on a -- -- -- -- -- and -- they start covering this short that's and that's what other strategists at par today say.
Watch that you've got short interest just within the -- -- -- -- their brother shorting the stock betting you're basically borrow it betting it's gonna fall and the buyback the stocks we.
And so that then we'll start elevating the stock if they -- to -- the same time.
So we can get -- it -- -- -- attachment but we did have a getting your pre -- -- twenty dollars is -- in seven trading days.
It's -- -- go to zero we've seen that right the past couple years on companies go from 97 again here so -- -- down in ninety to seventy.
You know but no definitely catch the falling knife by -- there you know if you get down in vicinity -- sixty you're holding it may be too late.
It's never too late right because you think it's -- -- here -- you think they are coming back.
It's electors Johnson & Johnson research groups say you know me when average -- -- -- people who did during the downturn last year were averaging down in lowering -- the average cost of your -- It's to me it doesn't -- -- airlines I don't know why go there at the -- -- -- -- that I'd like to thank you very much.
Anything that hasn't ended it tonight you know.
Lexington Massachusetts -- did see about basketball and yes I -- Kentucky debuting its EUS financial economist that I just rumor.
-- with this now you know.
Bradley got it got picked up what they left out of this conversation there what do you think that's that would -- go there -- I wouldn't tell myself but and I'm relatively risk reverse it.
This alleged that there right now that think this that it could turn itself around and we could potentially see to it right back to where -- was.
Auto industry in general is ailing right I don't know debt one of the sectors you would dabble in at all.
I at this point I think the -- sector you know -- obviously in restructuring in many cases.
We are into a cyclical rebound so you could argue that things will improve -- the state.
They are improving so strong company like Toyota.
One would think that they are well positioned itself.
At some point this will blow over and and -- will move on.
Brian we are in the middle of August the read a long stretch we're getting a lot of employment data on hasn't been greats.
Eighty OK -- Challenger gray and Christmas I was it was a little disappointing today's weekly Campbell -- a little disappointing is that setting the stage for a disappointing number tomorrow morning you think.
Well I think what we got ourselves into is some people were.
Starting to issue.
Forecasts that we've actually.
-- increase in January employment and that I don't think that's realistic.
And so somehow those expectations were raised.
And our new situation which is kinda like -- let's let's do a reality check.
And I would think that if we saw.
That would be a very good number.
So I think we.
Got too far ahead of -- headlights in terms of looking for.
An improvement in terms of all the headcount unemployment and what is happening.
Is that hours worked are going -- So there is parity is an increase in demand for labor services.
And that's the first thing that -- Hours worked -- and they go up they went up in the fourth quarter.
They're going to go up in this quarter and are likely to go up in the second quarter.
But that doesn't mean there's going to be increasing head counts.
So I don't know why.
Some people were.
Promoting this idea that we were at on the verge of an increase in employment.
What really matters is -- hours worked and we should be focusing on that.
And we've got that's what you can't suck blood from a -- -- it can only do for so long with what people -- like I can only works on many hours -- -- have to start hiring people.
Let's talk about the ice and members we sign on service numbers not I'm not manufacturing numbers not so great.
Manufacturing numbers not so great what do you see then going forward.
At least for the next couple weeks this market is is it seems to be on really shaky ground.
Well -- that we are getting.
Signals from different parts of the economy which apparently.
Look like they're contradicting themselves but actually.
What is happening is we're seeing a strong recovery in manufacturing.
And that is partly because manufacturing.
Has a very strong exposure -- high leverage to the export markets.
And exports as we saw on the fourth quarter rose at double digit rates -- -- the export situation is very positive.
-- definite -- from the manufacturing sector.
However on the services side and the services industries are much more oriented to the domestic economy and consumer spending.
We are not seeing great numbers on consumer spending.
And as result services industries are lagging behind recovery.
That's just basically the situation as we see it.
Is not necessarily a bad thing it's actually a good thing that manufacturing is seeing the strong recovery.
Because ultimately -- that builds momentum there will be more increasing demand for services.
We get better overall news on the labor market on consumption.
Services are gonna continue to lag behind manufacturing.
But diet like -- said from what I see in terms of the various.
Aspects of the recovery the manufacturing rebound the strength and productivity the low inflation.
Everything looks very good for a continued recovery.
Let's hope so bright pink -- US and it -- economists that I just global insight in Lexington Massachusetts it warrants are.
Thank you thanks revealing massive Brian and -- -- -- with Jeff Flock from Chicago more on easily go to the question is that it.
We move forward from here -- we have involved with cup holders and cigarette -- as well I think Alexis goes down we got -- We'll be right back up on.
Not much different about it.
Plus sixteen on the East -- 916 on the west the morning to all of you out -- we -- a market that's down 200 -- points on the Dow right now we're -- very close -- crossing.
That emotional 101000 lines on the Dow and we -- luckily it come little dance -- certainty.
We saw with as you mentioned the volatility index by a little bit people -- back in the uncertain mode.
-- -- -- attacks that are they gonna throw that the on the bank's -- with the financials.
What's going on with overseas debt sovereign debt now that's like the the buzz word you're getting your cab driver department sovereign yeah.
And we haven't really touched on this eighty billion dollar jobs dot actress Democrats and -- sees me earlier on today.
-- is no I didn't I believe that a -- -- in touch on that and that's sort of been -- that's been the MO when.
Congress or anybody in Washington speak that's that signal to sell -- sold off before we even got that signal.
Today John Browne joins us right -- senior market strategist at Euro Pacific Capital.
Down in Florida John -- that I guess that's the thing us your opinion about that right now.
But you -- -- -- even wait for the people on Capitol Hill to speak before we sold off today at that pretty bad side Tracy.
Yeah that's that's right president is.
The market you hit on one of the most important point of course is on -- data governments talking about creating jobs and is doing everything to kill jobs.
Raising taxes is raising regulations.
And it's going to withdraw subsidies and it's basically.
Creating great uncertainty and therefore causing employers and -- wish to go afforded their ability to plan.
And therefore create jobs for other people.
So let's talk about it.
Let's talk about the dollars -- it is at a seven month high against the Euro I know this is it your expertise.
Dollar gold commodities.
What do you think are you coming back to the dollar.
Well I I'm.
A and and in America's.
I have to have dollars to pay my kinds of things I got.
You I went back with us with -- staff wrote that of the dollar is is doomed in the long time to a major decline.
But in the short time -- they'll -- strength.
For for three primary reasons.
Festival the fact that the government is going to -- the Fed is going to end the this swap arrangements the dollar swap -- without -- governments in March.
The that the fact that the dollar carry trade is -- -- and -- That the idea -- -- is now I have a very very serious situation.
-- -- -- -- -- -- What happened when -- in that 20082007.
Had this crisis there was a shortage of dollars a -- what it was a -- problem and everyone was so what was dollars as we had deleveraging.
An America of course the Fed could create trillions of new dollars but in London for example.
The Bank of England could not and so it -- -- have money center like London the banks -- got sort of -- was.
And so the dollar price rose and you -- -- huge difference between that the dollar rates in America and the Libor rates in the in the United Kingdom.
And so to get over this shortage of dollars outside the United States the American government agreed to swap -- was.
For that other currencies like stunning for example at a fixed rates say to two dollars -- -- -- And then when they relieve them they would they would take them to get the pounds back to the -- and take the dollars back into America.
Musical -- -- -- and that gave huge that dollar liquidity in the money markets like London and -- elsewhere around the world and help two of us.
A major crisis.
That -- carry trade of course was when people found thanks to Greenspan.
Cheap dollars and and -- -- -- eight dollars and 0% they could -- and it is -- percent.
And then change them into say.
Dollars and and then by assets in Australia which was going very well.
Now of course with the prospect of five downtown if there's a double dip and -- -- he had the deleveraging that happen people sell the assets in Australia.
Sell ad dollars to buying the Australian dollars to buy US dollars and that portends -- to repay their debts.
And that tends to drive the dollar up.
Last -- of course.
People have with the -- -- in the -- of the -- people -- diversified -- corporations and countries it diversified.
That dog holdings in two other currencies notably the -- Right of the Euro.
And that of course drove the dollar down in the Euro up now we're seeing -- -- of debt problems in Europe.
People sending you -- -- to -- the dollar and therefore driving the dollar up in the short time.
So long time it's -- to get it done very -- it in the short on the dollars rising.
So that's good reasons does gold continue to go up -- Well go to it's got a very important support level -- send it to if we close tonight that but I -- send it to.
That will be the next one will be 1055.
And the next one off of that 975.
Support levels than 975.
Announce is a very strong support level.
But of course at the moment -- was popularly rising because people thought inflation would take off on the economy will grow and information would take off.
But with the news -- -- growing opinion amongst economists at that could be a double dip.
And the market -- you just -- said often Don but I 101000 intraday.
That people think well maybe that -- information may be that -- be more recession and therefore why hold -- for a recession says some of the holders.
Of go will be selling because.
But those who held it for a complete breakdown of the system broken completely -- will -- continued -- logo.
So I think goat could go down to the 900 -- made hundreds.
-- -- severe situation but in the end a year or two from not a debate way out.
So dollar short term bounce keep an eye on -- support levels for gold and keep an eye on gold back up again.
In a year or two in the years timers so -- thank you so much -- the goodness thank you.
Thank you and -- -- -- market strategist Euro Pacific Capital good stuff on a dollar real quick in on the gold real quick as well Jeff Flock.
You know there's nothing new really real quick about what's going -- with Toyota.
Because it seems like -- we get more on -- joins us right now.
From Chicago where Jeff I guess work is already being done or at least the planning stages are -- now.
Full force right now at these dealerships getting set to fix all these cars aren't there.
It's happened and as we speak you can see it happen as soon gentlemen in here who's worked in public that the cars are coming and takes about thirty minutes for the -- that's the gas pedal assembly that you see Bob trained on right.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Also got they the service manager Eric at the two Brian's.
First -- -- You got a lot of cars coming in here the guy you'll almost 24 hours to do that we might.
We might have to sort of 24 hours are right now we're gonna do extended hours till nine hopefully by twelve by the weekend.
And if -- be.
We're gonna -- 724.
Brian you were showing us earlier -- -- the sales as the yet.
Did have a fixed it goes fairly quick but very quickly about fifteen minutes.
Are you kidding what are you hearing from people violently what you hear from your customers.
Are customers just wanna get it fixed they know what's out there -- -- kits available.
Want to get it fixed as quick as possible.
You keep 400 cars and stock.
That's because you sell a lot of cars -- -- we do.
-- -- -- I have right now we are selling cars that as we were before but it you know just yesterday we sold five new cars yesterday.
So -- and -- some of the Prius is just to update our viewers.
That you got to -- the gas pedal thing but you've got some issue we you know with breaks you don't know exactly what that is -- we haven't heard anything yet from my corporate on the brake issue.
But we are -- increases at the 2010 Prius and people are still buying those in the winter term what you don't know -- returning home inning inning and again it just goes back to.
We need to be able to answer their questions com.
About the recall all the fixes once we do that it takes your mind is -- these.
In down there are comfortable.
I wanna get the two -- you you're your wisdom on this could you -- -- -- cars on thirty plus years and Brian how many 22 OKC get over half a century of experience looking at.
Problems with the -- it for the explorer you know you -- recalls before put that I was gonna say -- certainly at the spent a lot of trouble out there over the over the time.
How does this one compare -- a lot of vehicles.
Well it's bigger it's probably one of the they're the ones -- -- I think come Toyota blanketing all their models trying to get everything fixed right away.
Com is a good thing and not necessarily that every -- needed to be fixed across the board.
And -- can do whatever they can't make the customers -- they get the parts in the viewers' hands real quick.
And get it to.
Right you got nobody freaking out in terms of -- on -- committee for service.
No not at all they just -- it takes to circular it asked Foreman.
They're trying to -- -- I was gonna say I outlook -- report from here -- a happier time because this is a tremendous facility can't really tell it here.
Bob Spencer and you see the enormity the service department which you've got a nail salon here.
You've got issues kinda what else you -- we have a cafeteria.
We have we have the third largest sort of facility in the country right now.
They just -- 26 million dollars updating this facility.
And make a lot of money here but.
You know -- that they get a big not so and I -- -- just to point out for you Chris.
In the US Toyota you know you think -- is a Japanese company employs a 172000.
Here in the US if dealerships and factories.
And the support so.
This is a Japanese company with a lot of American people or -- Jeff I wonder real quick if you asked to go to those guys -- -- with -- the dealership about their thoughts on neighborhoods comments yesterday whether they thought he might have been stepping out of line a little bit and that if that really hurt them at least in the short term.
I've got get a sense from that you know secretary lahood yesterday he's he's a good man you know wanted to have -- -- native Chicago here was born apparently told him that yeah.
Ray LaHood -- -- congressman from long ago good man but yesterday said you know.
-- your Toyota don't drive it.
-- you upset with his comments are needed come back and retract the oldest groups Tom.
You know interested in me speaking later tracked down -- What he said Ukraine into the Toyota facility you know what you want that's what we want we just -- get them all taken care I'm not upset about it you know what you get piled on right.
Don't really -- mean it's it's it is what it is in you know.
No I don't feel that way.
You want expert they've had a lot of experience.
Ultimately it appreciate very very I want to thank these guys for allowing just come -- here today and tell this tale.
And watch this all happened not everybody would do that to -- say what you have TV cameras right around here watch what we're doing -- -- it's a tough time for them.
So really what we're acknowledged that he alone we should probably -- with reporters today really.
Yes and just for the weekend on Saturday we've already scheduled they think over under.
150 appointments just -- -- Great stuff very -- thought.
Jeff -- thank -- they have just fabulous positive attitudes about this whole thing Jeff Flock out and it's do.
Just -- keeping us up to date on the story Jeff thank you so much right.
Market is down 202 points that's kitchen my -- -- quote.
Your thoughts table called my -- issues which I'm really operate at.
No Jersey is -- -- connections.
He's the man my caddie.
-- part of my divorce was because I have to go to fifteen concerts guys here that the answer is yes not much respect.
What suing economies pomp and restaurant that's right here in midtown Manhattan.
And it's it's like a million other places around the country live music they cover bands.
Bruce Springsteen is suing this public.
Because they had to cover band and the cover band played the -- Bruce Springsteen songs in royalties on -- on I don't know about that what it's -- law.
You have to do it and the you know some of the people are saying -- The bars in the you know dual life has in common is that this this is likely to use it for two years they've been trying to.
You know Dick -- is -- and finally it's pub right on the corner over here what you think about.
I'm looking like hit you and -- isn't at the Springsteen's -- that it isn't the end -- the -- and streets and I think that didn't.
Dragged out how that people is suing them yeah.
I wondered my -- being.
-- -- of Springsteen cover bands out there you're gonna tell me -- all I know so silly -- happened that -- bloody loaded with these guys a break.
Point in the you know it is a band obviously abandoned making a lot of money and the car.
Obviously about making a whole lot of money out of it primate pretty good business that is three -- what do we know that come here.
The go over there but Clinton fashion or better yet known it but the fact of the matter is this and that this.
It's up to you to decide whether the laws collide -- they'll -- by the law or it's -- -- Springsteen to file suits.
Against this -- so think about that we'll think about it as well in its -- Not a month later.
That -- will be -- -- thing about this things.
Because you tell me when he was nineteen at the -- money trying to make it plain covers people why he wasn't paying royalties back.
Now I know but it's it's the law and the law's the law.
While I go so well also and the law won nine that at that -- up.
I'm -- -- what is well actually I have some facts and -- up even those are from India.
But Monster Worldwide -- down and I thought this is really interesting they went out and they put hotjobs from Yahoo! -- but they still low revenue.
They got hit fourth quarter loss.
It's just something that people well they've been -- looking for jobs anymore either maybe they don't fly into what's going on monster will let maybe they don't have any faith that that will actually help and they got -- -- -- that.
There is absolutely -- -- oil moving and so with that you got the airlines moving in the opposite direction oil.
About two point 8% plus a check Continental Airlines is picked it.
One of the leaders coming on down -- Martin also downgraded the sector actually detonated a few -- -- downgraded.
Alaska Air Group basically.
Seeing these guys -- of course given a break but it's just -- upgraded.
He JPMorgan upgraded US -- it is I can't autos airlines not -- why you put your heart and many there.
These that we talk about visa and MasterCard early on Barney cut to -- -- different these stocks are moving total different directions he set up.
Great first put a profit grew by a third.
More of these cards out there year over year so this -- last -- 5% -- of people.
Are using a debit in -- interested somewhat trying to be careful they're deafening.
But -- so that they.
-- and that's -- me.
That's right they just collect Philadelphia -- and MasterCard doesn't have that -- Service right visa does and that's where the differences between human magical -- fans that yes exactly -- -- -- -- actually but say.
They had took some onetime charges to an after tax severance charge because they lit up -- bunch of people that some MasterCard got her for other reasons as well.
-- -- -- -- People here counted blond thing she can't see and the stock and here it is but better than expected same store sales in January me.
People we're just so down on and the -- was so -- they jumped -- He sees Q did better cost -- was actually -- -- here.
He -- results did well -- -- their earnings target because of it and getting a lot of the a lot of also his thoughts on Nordstrom had a great January in terms of -- stores -- be a much better January and a lot -- -- in the -- so I think I think that was and I think I had a lot to do with the bar being so low and Affymetrix is my little.
My little fun text that Thanksgiving they make -- analyze genetic information.
Really high tech great you know that's like 20% better than expected fourth quarter results.
And the CEO doing really good -- don't -- you know Bacchus yes and that's neat so it's it's different.
World because we did have the CEO of MasterCard saying yeah it's -- yet there Newton and then we get some of these guys singing hopefuls had everything's at so.
Let's go -- right now I want to talk with mark -- he's the chief economist of first American core logic we'll talk with him in a little bits.
And let it play.
The back its -- market is a typical teenager I mean.
One day it's up when it's down Butler is back up.
Talking this morning didn't you can -- point that volatility index has just dramatically.
Dropped yet you look at -- long term -- of the victims.
Us or at least in the fall 2008.
It was too good that we had like seventy on the -- at one point when we were at our worst thing is now at -- point four.
-- -- -- -- So while it is up 12%.
Yeah it's that all sharp sickening I think.
It is that's my body is saying it's that the shots that now that really is better than shots that in the state of exits when he foyer I agree with you on that one.
Mark Fleming now joins us he's the chief economist at first American well logic from DC mark you know this is a very testing to a topic that we might talk with you about you.
You guys at first American recently performed a study that showed.
-- a home's value reaches a certain point that is when people are more at -- most likely to walk from that mortgage and it's racing I've kind of -- round and round on this whether that should be done morally legally but there is a point.
Where somebody says you know what now's the time to move what does that point.
Absolutely I mean just looking at the numbers we estimate that there about four and a half million mortgaged homeowners who are under water by 25% or more than.
And the default rates when -- at that level of negative equity increased dramatically so.
We believe that's -- behaviors such as strategically defaulting.
Is something that people seriously consider.
So even if I have money even if I'm not looking to sell but I noticed that the -- that I hit that 55% mark.
People -- walking.
Absolutely mean I think it if you're -- and it is an investment investment property -- that you're considering it's even sooner than that but if you of the place.
There seems to be magic number around -- 75% are being more than 25% underwater where default rates and our data.
Our increasing dramatically and that in large part has to do with the fact that people are sort of willingly strategically defaulting as they say that's.
That's I can pay but I'm choosing not to because I just don't think it's worth it.
It's a very interesting study you know when you look at the housing market that was trying to get their hands around -- their arms around if you will mean our banks would banks use -- study.
-- -- to get a better handle on how to modify mortgages.
-- one time they wanna try and keep somebody in this house they wanna try to extended and -- -- that you talk to you guys about using that data.
Of course we we talked to many of the banks and services all the time in -- many of them have did this information that we're talking about today.
But I do think it is certainly another data point.
That can be used to try and understand what is the best way to deal with things like modifications and how to consent.
The willingness to pay -- mortgage -- when in fact here looking at that an asset that's worth a lot less than the loan that you have on it.
This is just going it.
Add fuel to the fire in this housing mess right now.
Chris alluded to the fact that we go round and round we go around with I vehemently opposed to anybody walking away from their home I guess it's a numbers game.
But it still makes no sense in the -- that people do this so you're saying basically that there's -- there's a sticking point and it's almost like it's so law.
Of course our data can't tell us whether or not to it's okay or not but what we see is the results of the behavior.
I'm at bat at that point and I think -- There's something to be said certainly there is the numbers game and if you were what we what -- economists like myself refer to -- that -- -- ruthless put option that is to default.
But it is the house that you and there are a lot of other factors come into play such as this is the neighborhood I live in this is where some kids to school -- a lot of factors there that.
Potentially prevent people from you know willingly or strategically defaulting even if they are underwater because realistically they can afford to make -- payment they want to stay there.
But for some subset certainly it becomes a significant option.
But you're not about those people you're talking about people that are just fine.
They can pay they're having you'll probably largest and some of or not he's talking about everybody right but they edit it just -- my neighborhood fell in the water.
I have at a point where I should -- that -- -- what about the implications of my credit down the line.
You know the fact that now I'm walking and I'm not getting my money back on this to -- -- -- -- I have the cash on hand to go buy something -- Afghanistan.
Well it's it's not it's not uncommon that.
That you know defaults occur a strategic default occurs maybe not so much with homeowners in single family -- is that.
It's something that we are seeing in the commercial space right now strategic default on obligations.
If you keep your mind these are legal contracts.
There is as you mentioned the moral and ethical debate it and that that is that being had at the moment but.
Of those four and a half million you know we don't expect all of them to strategically default we just feel -- there.
The data showing us that there are significantly more likely to.
Within that bucket when you experienced such deep levels of negative equity.
And we look at our housing price forecasts and they're not saying that house prices are gonna bounce back any time soon so this is something that's gonna last for quite some time.
-- going to be my question for you mark based on -- researching you know you seeing a bubble forming here.
Sometime in 2010 because you're not seeing prices raise it rising anytime soon.
Now I think this is basically a situation that will will exist for a number of years to come.
To be under by 25% or more given what we expect house prices to do in terms of growth over the next few years we'll take you know at least 57 if not more years in some markets to -- back to basically par or having some equity.
I think that's part of what's playing into.
The strategic default behavior it's that you just don't feel that there's any.
Light at the end of this tunnel -- -- -- act quickly what are the biggest states that a culprit of this.
Out of Nevada is by far the largest almost half of the mortgage towns in Nevada are actually underwater -- -- -- and work.
That is an unbelievable -- it's it's laughable but it's not funny if if you can understand what I'm saying exactly.
Thanks for joining us those -- some pretty remarkable numbers appreciated mark Fleming thanks mark -- -- -- -- first American core logic with a study about homes when he 5% underwater now it's time to walk.
-- I know it's.
-- -- -- -- middle of this come back peeps go wonder watered.
-- -- my house.
-- -- The company is called just bored -- the boss Indians he joins us VP of brand development that you cannot be familiar with just want but you certainly are and they would just -- Products -- -- of Mike and I think.
-- -- -- Certainly hot tamales I've felt like tonight right here quietly this is that this is Valentine's.
At least from my pizza -- I've ever seen our effort mountainsides -- happy.
Welcome to -- Well I thank you thanks for having -- -- it.
First question how difficult or how easy is that area how much of the challenges it.
To let people know -- the company's college's board but we make pizza -- -- but he knows peaks but.
And a hot tamales in the candies but -- they have -- about the company that's even better.
Now I mean where I'll about plants are brands include not just -- night hot tamales and heats but also -- accused when he purchased about five years ago from the golden merits here in Philadelphia.
-- I think any business these days people are struggling and can't afford to buy things but to me -- -- supported by keeps.
And neat compact industry as a whole -- put -- -- now RI RI is barely read that we would -- recession racist and you can't afford necessarily to go by the trip for the new car but they can afford sweet treat for themselves but -- Now patents I had three -- And you can't really make an Easter basket without keeps.
Are you making an -- now now right now at least you going into ICB were breaking and Valentine's Day here that we didn't try to break into all the holidays like Christmas tree Pete's coming up.
Actually we have -- for all seasons we have Christmas trees are -- and how do more than a decade.
-- yet we have snowman and for Valentine's Day for next week we have what we introduced last year witches are -- -- -- We -- the best flavor of Valentine's chocolate combine it with -- have a chocolate mousse flavored.
And it really cute Teddy -- shape and then this here.
We happy for Valentine's Day in our new shape which is I love you the -- the -- So really this and this is great advocate the any of these can be used from kid to kid -- me is that the case an apparent it's other adults and adults they have a lot of policies.
Look at the I have in my hand.
Chocolate covered pizza you've been taken heat for a long time why right now.
Yet this is -- -- be I've -- -- chocolate that dark chocolate and yet make it -- your.
Bringing these out for eastern guesses you but it will be a first buys a ticket so long to get chocolate covered -- -- -- it.
You know what we introduce new products want to make sure that meets the consumer expectations so.
RD team and the marketing teams that a lot of work in research to make sure that we could delivered to the consumer what they are expecting cigarette.
Chocolate we've got dark chocolate.
They'll -- it is by far the leading from the top of flavor for consumers this is rather -- when you -- with march now my my favorite is the dark chocolate.
And when you buy into these isn't surprising that because just like -- -- our number one collar and across all of our states is -- Mark mom's side is actually yellow and it's either great.
Delightfully and -- statements about the -- -- the practice perfect and delivered but the consumer backs.
Yet here that they -- going to be perfect -- let's talk about my.
-- is just because we are business show in the world we're all here what that would -- the prices -- you guys.
Well you know I it's no surprise I -- -- tracking.
Shares hit world record price the last month and you know.
We -- just aren't really have put our our time and attention to making sure we deliver to the consumer.
The highest quality product we -- the best price values so that.
They get what they pay for that they're getting a good values so we worked hard to make sure that even with commodity prices in -- -- doing.
We can meet those needs.
And you have -- store like that we walked into -- store and just it's just Walt Walt -- About well let's call -- and company there's a section in there perhaps Molly's.
For my bank repeated -- -- and the back half of the stories about peace and pizzas are icon and yes you can get everything from Hastert and Fletcher it's due.
Copy -- to travel months to piece of course plus peeps in all sizes from.
You know laments that key chain backpack clip to you know we actually have a five -- Keep the little flighty and can I -- -- -- should have a five quietly told me it's not out yeah it's better but not -- -- you know.
I -- it now I don't know if it's -- you can snuggling sick cattle with its -- on it and snuggle with.
Believe me I spoke with -- Pete's anyways it once.
Kathy thank you so much not -- as we appreciate it.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- To have all kinds holidays throughout the course of the year that you can use it.
And they they don't know I don't think stale -- I -- -- you know like Michael I'm looking out and doubled my company.
As like the perfect wedding fever health -- would be actually guess would love it heats if you Brett.
One of us at their place when they sat down at -- it's -- -- -- -- weddings let's face facts you think they do they don't.
But if I says -- -- -- might feel more inclined to have fun time for me to have a shot the cover of people -- your eyes -- break every hour.
Good player I'd go ahead there's -- meeting.
I ever caught my eye and it's not Chris.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- So the census is going to advertise during the super -- that was all sexist things in.
-- me to death could influence in jobs and increase is great hire people for all like ten minutes.
To go out account for the census and then the last -- and you know what again.
But that that being said the census is going to spend 340.
Million dollars advertised -- -- well.
This is our money our money item -- from the banks might get back from all these crazies out there -- 140 million dollars.
So advertisement -- during the super -- so that.
It reminds you that when this stuff comes knocking -- -- -- don't.
About some out of answers questions and that's like three that was like three million dollars bird 32 -- in the suitable.
Million dollars and again when it forever in -- and had signed age in an outdoor marketing and -- -- it's it's not just it will that he spent about 82 million to meet ethnic consumers.
They do a lot of campaigning so that people -- -- sense of course I understand the importance of the census.
We need to know how many people had nowhere -- I think what it annoys me what you would actually at -- interesting is the census is not going to ask about sex marriage or siblings.
-- -- He -- that I mean shouldn't they -- -- the find out what we -- Athens where painful right back and we know about that because many of those people same sex marriages need.
Health benefits -- recent -- and -- think all the you can buy it 340 million dollars went back.
-- Still recovering -- and all of that -- partly as well.
Especially because we get to go to my anyway now you know Keating is with us Deion did that where it's nice and warm -- that.
Yeah I'd bet seeing on the planet I have to make it very clear let's go let's go yeah super ball sports career -- Football game absolutely you know Super Bowl forty -- takes place this Sunday in South Florida.
-- on the Miami Dade Broward County line.
And Lebanon Barbara -- John -- we are here at Hialeah -- look at America's junior high school this is a sports career expo.
The message here I couldn't be delivered all of these athletes -- here in the crowd.
Listening to a former -- -- player right there -- a lot of kids is that -- He loves sports and you -- -- in sports for your entire professional career have got a high school.
But you're only.
Not good enough to be on the field but you're still good enough to be in the business.
There are plenty of well paying jobs out there and steer your education in that direction -- apparently people are.
Being encourages studying English stuff.
Study in broadcasting.
And studying journalism study and marketing.
There's all kind of job that -- be that are related to this is more industry prevents -- We know they want and it made kids read up on that field.
And so these figured out the door without lesson in there weren't more.
Not everybody -- -- about learning they may have to go through seven years higher education we have a lawyer by the -- to get some urgent experience of people.
The Miami -- the Florida Marlins as well as it.
NFL -- I love that -- -- what I got out of graduate school like I get a job in management and sports.
And I felt like there was one in and I was one million chance that you'll apply to jobs even if it's not fielded that's a pretty hard to come -- -- -- good idea of this is a sampling of some of the companies are people that are there talking about jobs and immediately hiring.
They're not you thought that's a much of a surprise one of the student asked.
Published to get paid.
Laughter and Alan.
The guy just simply said a lot.
Yeah true for -- pitcher in his case he would want the South Florida Super Bowl host committee.
And that's called.
Why not sports that's the name of the non -- and they do this every year every Super Bowl week they pick one high school in the Super Bowl city so last year they were in Tampa Florida the year before they were in Arizona.
And it it once -- Earlier there honors students in here.
They have a lot of questions specifically how much ruling will let me wander out what your job like.
-- of the broadcasters have been told them look.
You know you -- to -- a -- you need to have good English.
And -- -- a couple of former NFL players our offices here right now -- he's a free -- currently so he actually works with what about sports and if I during the season and offseason.
Actually president back on the field as a defensive lineman -- is he's got the built for it yeah next year.
Well I love this thing in these kids know that they can't put all their eggs in one basket and you -- Christmas implying that the job opportunities for himself.
They say does that you can't ask -- -- I think.
I think it gets you a sideline credential maybe I'm not dead -- take that -- thanks man.
Thank you so much Phil Keating Fox News joins Miley at Florida yet -- look at the work because I'm going.
-- -- -- -- I think that's genius I think that's seen -- night eating you know Reilly in god no but the notion that we're teaching our athletic kids baton.
Even if you are fantastic.
They're still have to be something after you can't do this forever you know the reason they keep cool and you know Kurt Warner the old guy -- how old.
Well here's the thing.
The players that are playing on the field they're gonna make some money the cities and make some money.
How much will they make -- Robert tuchman can help us with that question -- what's market TSE sports and entertainment welcome to the show Robert.
Hey guys thanks for -- yeah.
Odd years I am where -- client itself I Cadillac and I could tell where it will recovering from recession here Robert.
A still of the study gave you a little less at the -- but.
If there's always spending and when -- in south -- there's only so many things to do with South Florida people they're pros that putting on this event will it be.
A money maker for everybody down at this time around.
-- without a doubt I mean Miami definitely knows how to throw a party really when you look at the Super Bowl and you look at the advance.
It's going to bring in a lot of money for South Florida announcing gonna bring in as much as it brought in back you know seven.
I think -- -- about 25%.
Off of those numbers but the nice thing is.
We're seeing much more spending this year.
Then we did last year in Tampa Bay so that that's a good sign and you know it's really you know also depend on -- the saints fans gonna start driving into town now in travel.
And doubt we'll see what happens there and that could be a big factor on how much money's gonna be spent at the end of the day.
Has asked you that how much instead the team that makes it to the super well play into this you know like.
We know that jets fans are crazy people like they wouldn't big plus -- corners -- -- -- I am a jets then yeah.
I get I hadn't even -- -- -- -- -- Sunday on the way to the stadium.
Well I'm not an act does that matter are you know arguments in the saints seem as if there wild does make a difference.
Yet and that's a good question financing actually makes -- huge difference because if -- if you look at.
The different teams that would have -- in let's say it was the vikings vs the jets.
There would have been probably I estimated this now is looking at -- -- between 25.
To 35 more million dollars spent.
Locally that's on hotels transportation.
That's on really everything once you get down here and -- because if you look at those markets.
New -- a much bigger market -- New Orleans or Indianapolis.
And also Minnesota has a very big national following.
And the other thing you have to remember is.
The the colts work here a couple of years ago so a lot of those people who said you know what the colts ever make the super ball.
I'm going down -- the -- this year they're kind of like you know what I've been.
They might stay back so it is a factor now the one thing that saints or or the Super Bowl host committee here in Miami has going port.
Is that you can drive from New Orleans you know here to Miami and a lot of people will -- you know then you have to look at will they spend on hotels.
You know how's -- gonna affect the ticket prices so.
It's really interesting but yes if the jets have gotten in and if the vikings had got in I think you're seeing a lot more money being spent here in South Florida.
Now we've had Super Bowls in Atlanta.
A couple of of one islands there and there was an ice storm one year they've been in Detroit area remember that they've been some really good places where it hasn't worked out Miami only seems to work out -- -- gonna see.
A steady rotation Miami.
Southern California for these games every year.
I would love to see steady rotation you know I've always kind of and -- talked about this in the past just.
Love to see your rotation of Miami San Diego New Orleans Arizona -- and you know what happens though is the NFL you know right now they're having issues actually.
With Miami because they want the dolphins.
They make upgrades to their stadium put a roof money.
And they've actually held out for awarding them another super believed on the same thing in San Diego.
If it was up to me and I was running the NFL I would have that rotation because you want a warm weather location.
It just makes all the difference but as we know you know the Super Bowl was held in Detroit a few years ago.
It was held in Houston that's because of the new stadiums and now they want to do -- 2014.
In New York which.
In a new Yorker I would love that I'd love to see it but when you want to travel to an event.
You know you've got to look the game's only a few hours you wanna look at all those other days and you know here Miami you don't go out to the -- you can golf -- and you know just do all these other things that and that's what the super balls become its.
It's an event now it's not so much a little game.
But it's expensive in Miami it's expensive in New York you know.
I'm coming from a place that I'm not used to this kind of spending that you -- 300008 easy for a hotel in Miami so that.
Can turn out it's already people.
But it's a good point Tracy but the fact is no matter who gets awarded the Super Bowl.
Those people know that the Super Bowl is coming to town so they raise their rates the hotels they have you know.
Minimum nights days I mean the average night stay that we paid for a hotel here.
These -- between 60700.
Dollars growth worth star hotel and they throw a minimum.
Of four nights now the problem is if you put it in a smaller locations like they once did in Jacksonville.
There wasn't enough space we had to rent out condos at sawgrass because there wasn't enough -- -- -- that actually rose you know made the price of I'll lodging actually rise so.
It's interesting how it works but no matter who gets -- Super Bowl they -- know that that's the time where they can up their prices because you're gonna come to town regardless you know for the most part of your team makes the game.
I Robert thanks a lot for the info that's good stuff enjoy it's -- down there.
I appreciate Rihanna got a head back to new York and no this weekend -- guys expect in a snowstorm up there snow -- and -- will come and stay here yeah.
They offered a chance and now I'm out here not countenance -- of how to take Barack oh thanks so much new courses via batters with one of the NC.
Sports and entertainment.
-- Yes -- a couple of -- problem.
So that was it was fine it's one of those things where obviously you went -- by I would.
-- properly and just you got my caddie needs Super Bowl what you asked -- rock and I as a.
Forget -- you know have some hot -- attendees -- the chocolate covered ball marks little bit.
Yeah I love you.
Filter by section