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Welcome to foxbusiness.com.
Lot Chris -- along with Sandra Smith happy Columbus Day out there.
-- got to Columbus they factoid for you and I'll share that with you right now.
Com I actually feel certain kindred kindred spirit to Columbus since.
He knew it was Italian he sailed under Spanish flag I am a quarter Spanish so it's sort of a big day for me -- my I should even be here working but I am.
Are my if you found a recent poll here I don't know if you've seen -- Sandra.
Up 151000 well traveled women were pulled from twenty countries by the global research from one -- dot com.
Who what nationality made at the best lovers.
So they say this is questionable character key let's part of -- -- number one.
Quarter Irish number five quarter.
I actually Elson made the worst list quarter German number one worst lovers in the world.
And the number of number seven Welsh they said wealth -- -- too selfish.
A minute here I thought well if we're just known for singing like Tom Jones too selfish.
Come on we go we we figure out that point it's one of the show with you Michael on the state that -- eye of the beholder macro.
The days so that's your Columbus Day stuff -- Your weekend but my weekend with sub par considering LSU tigers took -- -- there.
Obviously right now that evening for -- kind of down year for UNL I assume you what.
What would just listen.
Even though -- Saturday -- will you please hear me it's it down you because you're gonna lose to a three or maybe four games okay brute.
Serious this is getting personal -- -- Hot and is saying you're not be met the championship kind of LSU team that you -- They admit it you've been dominant in the pass defense is pretty good you don't go to Georgia won a couple of national championship I'm happier if I know this is that this is 2009 houses and passed -- -- what I'm saying is if you go -- for.
And you go to the Music City Bowl that's a horrible year for LSU all right understands that's going to be very proud -- that -- if we don't weigh in for Georgia Tech and we go to the Music City Bowl.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- I we're not just overnight just sent out hanging out there -- a comment to everybody watching out there.
101000 we're looking at you think we're gonna reach there in our overnight 900 and a lot of -- -- -- everybody talk about Dow 101000 we've been there before.
But still that's to be pretty psychologically important for the markets that we are able to trade above there and actually close their that was 400 -- let you know hundred.
It's -- way and obviously so much that -- rule you don't.
Based on this week consensus earnings -- you know expectations are so -- even though they've been creeping up here as of late but still.
The expectations are low.
If we know that companies are going to be on the bottom line is -- continue to cut costs all -- Long Will we see revenue -- The big thing I know we've got a few key -- that we're gonna ask about this that you know are these financial earnings as important.
As ever with making up in the are these -- really going to be -- -- as far as whether or not this 67 -- and that rally we've seen in the equities markets since March.
Is that really what's gonna determine whether or not a laugh so last summer can.
In the last one of them right now Matt McCall president and financial group this year and author I couldn't believe that -- did when I read this -- yeah.
That's a good I don't know I think that ought to I think if you go with some video academics and with the you know -- fancy words when he decides not not yulia.
No you know and I'm saying that I was shots and everybody that's what -- know not a I think every way that you're a well rounded individual and you can write a book I couldn't -- close notes not played and that's what I'm saying you put a good -- -- -- that readers digest it hits shelves today.
-- next Monday -- a week from today a -- and what would have been called the next.
Great bull market and it's kind of timely because we've had a little -- -- -- But what what it's what it's about really it's it's about mega trends different -- where.
Regardless of what the market does there's gonna be bull markets within the market at all times.
And what -- -- the highlights different trends such as the baby boomers such as green energy infrastructure within their.
Show's demographics and reasons why to support this and then even further.
Individual stocks -- -- if you play this trend over the next decade what do you make of -- 101000 through his talking about right you were right on accustomed to keep inching our way there but now we're sort of right there that.
I think we're gonna hit it because what happens.
To really -- psychological levels in the market we saw the single the several times -- last couple of years.
We ramp to a 1010 appear that came down just recently blew through that and -- so I think we will hit it in the Dow.
And you know the markets setting up for me to rally right through -- -- that's gonna be that cattle.
I mean I just mentioned have reported second quarter earnings for the financial system can be that's -- -- indicator of whether or not this last.
I think earnings will be the -- -- push -- through but the bigger questions interest.
With the paddles to stop this market right now -- there's nothing out there to stop this market momentum is on the site -- -- -- at eleven dollars on this popular since.
And if there was -- lot of hedge funds out there.
They're quarter ends at the end of this month.
So they have to really catch up to perform -- so they're lagging the market they did not enjoy the big rally that we've had so they're buying in every pullback I think they will push this market higher.
Into the end of this month.
Well that is that a bad thing for by the beginning of next month because then -- you say -- if I if I just eke out a little bit to gain this year I can get out -- -- -- at least look no limit my positions that the get to a point of maybe a greater safety.
I would have thought that two months -- and honest -- you think you -- -- to take some profits we have -- -- down one the momentum is clearly on the -- side and there's no major catalyst out there to really stop this bull market -- have more than 10% -- -- -- -- healthy.
Anything more than 10%.
What will -- be and I cannot find that major.
He bet that would drive at them as a series of events I think.
But will keeps moving higher that can be trouble inflation could be trouble the US dollar falling even further could be trouble but there's not one big event in my mind thinking of the US thought the drop in the -- obviously then you have.
But worrying gold prices and you mentioned here that GO LD which of the largest gold each yet when your biggest holding it is my lord -- You -- that people asking nation and I called people who aren't even you know trading that stuff if they want to get involved should they -- Yes I think -- seven portion of your portfolio in gold would you know I would be loading up here with the gold trading at 1050.
-- I announce where it is right now but I do think we see 12100 to thirteen hundred the next three months because we broke above that psychological level of 1000.
We have inflation which is going to be -- major concern going forward in my mind I've been streaming up from the rooftops for months I'm setting up for major inflation next couple of years.
And or one way to play that is with -- But longer term the big argument against the gold -- -- you could -- -- -- twenty years ago for 800 dollars an -- announced that thousands he really not making any money on it longer term.
But this is an asset class I think you have to have some money at this point what about the contrary view on that that was it in that everybody is piling Muniz and at some point I'm only gets saturated -- people -- the fall out because they realize now.
Yes it is very different but the reason why are people you'll -- that's a big question that bind because -- safety because they're concerned what's gonna happen.
Are -- buying because inflation of the weak US dollar or that momentum play.
So it's not like it's being pushed higher by one single catalyst you have several panels pushed it higher so the contrary to play when when it does pull back -- -- twelve or thirteen -- dollars.
It could fall to -- dollars -- -- -- -- -- you're gonna see that big pullback I think -- the ride the wave right now.
I ask you something a little bit off topic you know what you're currently -- we'll get -- -- -- stockholdings in just a socket.
But one of our viewers oil trash ten point seven saying you're in the commodity lady what -- greens and we start to talk about gold precious metals.
Or -- energy products as we start to -- the global economic recovery.
-- greens fit into that picture.
The greens are the one who look commodity -- that -- -- that has lagged this entire rally.
They've really struggled.
And I was very high and grains a few months ago actually -- you're a half ago now did -- really like it sugar -- -- everything really doing well.
I'd like there's a longer term play and that's actually a chapter that talk but in the book is talking that the drains the reason for that is you see.
And to put to the middle class -- and emerging markets you have more people eating.
He -- more -- more demand.
-- is -- also big point we had the worst drought Australia two years ago.
I'm so in that really hurt weakness that -- to an all time high so I do with the greens here is a value play -- and it's not on anybody's radar so picking appears that I -- Is in the global diet story part of that though that.
You want to buy either grains or corn that's used in feed because people it's actually trading up in terms of what they're eating there meeting one meets -- -- one point etc.
The globe and therefore they need to feed they DOD the wheat and corn to make.
One product and and -- a mutiny thing for -- -- -- -- absolutely he had been in it makes perfect sense.
I'm not a big mediators I don't know -- you look at -- think this.
Thought -- might also look at you've been in the for the past three week.
But right that's not necessarily get you know I -- -- -- -- what I think is yet you know that's true but.
The say you look like a big media there isn't necessarily comment because you could I was trying to back and I and actually hit 46 ounce steaks everyday and I think in any exit now I -- -- I'm not going to be put moment for muscle you know -- -- what do you think about this earnings season because this week is a huge week.
Anywhere from GE to Google IV are cellmark and the end label that -- they're gonna have their I don't Morgan Stanley -- -- -- -- your.
I do own that stock.
I think the financials -- the wild card because it's not about what they're getting on the bottom line it's about their guidance and you know some a toxic assets -- still have on their books.
You know what really that the talk that comes out of verbiage in a conference call that's what's gonna really lead the financials higher or lower.
We look at a lot of financials were still hasn't done much -- -- over the last two months painfully slow down but this market has continued we've seen no money going to different sectors so.
Has been important the financials are yeah I don't think it's gonna make a break earnings season and Courtney from Raleigh.
Morgan Stanley as -- the thought process been.
Over the last couple of quarters -- so.
Morgan is is.
That is reining it in a little bit there being more conservative Goldman Sachs on the other side and maybe that's -- Goldman's earnings are out shining Morgan Stanley's earnings right now -- that that's a big comparison because -- -- outperformed Morgan Stanley and not only as far as earnings but also stock performance they're much more leverage and Morgan Stanley -- hasn't gone back to the pre -- days of really getting -- out if they do.
They're the best valuation out there in a financial sector in my mind I don't know if they're gonna become that aggressive.
Interesting that you say that the financials.
Like markets and they are the big wild card in earning season but yet.
Morgan Stanley the I that's what they're -- it is -- -- I think it's a little longer term by I mean.
It's a relative earnings four times a year of the -- you know if you look at the facts and moving sideways and any positive news it's an interleague play 3030 -- -- -- -- -- some buying in that range around 3132.
They're -- make money banks and make money just the rate environment is is it too good for the -- right now but are you expecting them tell you anything in the conference call are you expecting to get any information whether it's about.
Isn't that a performance their balance sheet improvements on their balance sheet loan losses things like that you expecting enough information at a big conference call to say well they're in great shape where I.
I think -- out of this thing right now.
No I'm not -- and had to be honest with yet I'd like to say yes -- feel very confident after that comes out or very.
Concern but I do not think we'll get that.
I think what's more important is are they lending again it really is other financial cogs in the market really moving getting back to where they work.
As well as he -- moving forward I think that's of the biggest question that I -- to have answer when earnings season comes out.
I am just a question quarterback that's our one of our -- -- of -- on the Internet says.
What happens the market -- earnings -- -- less than expected is that going to be the.
Sure I mean it's definitely hurt the market you know I mean it's a big if you know if they come -- worse -- expected I don't think it will because the expectations -- set so low.
Obviously if you play -- -- -- Smith and she says economic -- -- -- he's at it.
This is and a bag of these companies and sandbagging efforts to quarter that ended.
-- -- So the other sandbagging is that every dollar in Pennsylvania what about the division the top line and bottom line what's what's priced in right now is a priced -- that they're gonna be on the EPS.
-- because that expectations are so low.
But that wouldn't see some revenue growth if you don't see any revenue growth is that really gonna hurt is because that should be priced in yet thinking and ahead if we do not see revenue growth this quarter -- -- -- -- through this quarter but fourth quarter definitely that's the -- -- slow -- the market because eventually you cannot keep cutting expenses and you have to grow the revenue.
But that's what comes back to my thought process now that we're in a stock pickers market because there are certain companies out there that have been -- revenues quarter over quarter.
And that's what -- become -- -- the strongest coming out of this recession biting humor about it Stanley real quick few seconds -- Net assets which is a smaller company.
It's BC health care -- firm.
They helped some of the hospitals go out collect cost get a lot of money back I think regardless what happens with the health care issue this is -- of the company's I'd investment.
For the most part health care and very under -- because I don't know what's gonna happen with -- with a bill that I'm five seconds or less gas are asking about JPMorgan Bank of America.
Make America stay away from JPMorgan had picking up.
All right that meant -- -- by late in the AS that's the stock ticker we take quick break.
Matt good to see that as though us thank you and financial thank you twitter.com -- -- -- -- call he's also an author you can pick up his new book that the next great bull's mark I'm good out there that had pressed for that I that I make sure I get that point for us we'll be right -- better.
But this is -- -- live continues thanks for joining us here on in this Columbus Day holiday you know we'll call one night and it.
Local and international.
We'll I already talked about staying in which I am a quarter Spanish being the greatest -- honor at the end and hit that's the problem right so you have military yeah.
All right Germany and valiantly came in last is on that was all right I'm getting noticed that over night Prime Minister Gordon Brown announced that the brits are gonna start selling public assets.
-- -- five billion dollars worth including.
A stake in the European uranium consortium that they own the Channel Tunnel rail link that you -- for bridge.
-- -- -- -- -- -- All my thing was on 25 billion dollars -- sells some of that -- that the royal family is holding.
The crown jewels alone are worth approximately the last I saw twelve billion dollars -- this is 2004.
So much more than that right now so when you think about how much money the -- -- is worth.
A ton of money sell those crown jewels out there it'll it'll never happen I mean at our -- -- and -- got to get out of his global recession.
Here is a way to do it sorry to the two million people that are starving to death.
In in England.
But we gotta keep the jewels here in the -- -- so you guys continue to starve to death as one guest is pointing out jobs says that the current rules are public.
Whatever and I know they're not a public gas -- -- private and their big attraction Taurus.
They are really.
And -- in the I think.
There other things an angle that you you go see red and whenever I am sick and just making good not an -- -- -- thought -- Antilles here with a senior editor.
At Barings didn't say it is why what do you think -- -- -- And I sat I actually think that there are probably been times in the last 500 years when there were more starving people and you could this whole thing on -- other words it's not as if -- as bad as we've been in the history of the world for him.
I do like the idea of -- general principal -- government selling these infrastructure assets mostly because.
Around the world you've had all these funds built -- as a -- -- by infrastructure -- toll roads and all -- -- so what does that a private company now runs the Chunnel between friends that's always in the case what exactly was developed that way.
But even for example very prosaic Indiana soul it's sold it's you know told turnpike to private investor and with the right to collect tolls and I would like a pretty good deal for the government -- But here's my question or -- -- an -- this topic in my.
What -- that -- the company decides that they wanna surcharge eight dollars for somebody to get Ohio and Indiana I think it becomes a regulated utility yet until your electric company -- -- -- -- other Congress Center and market a -- might appreciate -- important article event.
The -- at least a recent leaving like the one who brought -- you.
What is it about.
Well I wanted to take a look at look we've seen this monster rally that everybody's been looking and it kind of waiting for the big pull back and it's obvious to sort of make these prudent noises that say.
You can expected to give you anything more and I wanted to see people who really have been with the trend correctly.
And what they're saying right now.
And look who's keeping you in this market right now and a handful of those I found what economists are analysts -- protests for the most -- market.
-- -- and I I settled on a handful that seemed to kind of have a few attributes in common they've been in the business 3040 years -- seen a lot of cycles.
They run their own firm's research firms -- Ned Davis Research Steve lose hold of lethal group.
Last -- any.
And one of the things that unify their approach.
Is personally bid bulletin what I'm not gonna say they -- the absolute bottom but early on this rally they said this is going to be big.
And they also have -- -- on the door wanna look for the signs that things might be getting a little bit over overdone but they're not seeing them yet.
They listen to the market as much as they tell the market -- what it should be doing and I think that right now can he can get some comfort by the fact.
That these folks who really their name is on the line they're not influenced by the kind of politics of a Wall Street firm that wants to sell you a bond as -- kind of being stopped.
So I think it's it's somewhat encouraging.
But I think that they're keeping the market on a short leash.
By that I mean.
You know he can't go down 15% of straight line and they're still in the same bind because that would mean the behavior changed.
What what do you make of -- I mean is it it across the -- then are they.
Promoting a cyclical bull market and -- did that pretty much here we go we're gonna continue march onward.
I think pretty much a cyclical bull -- none none of nobody is saying that this is.
With these may be a couple of exceptions that this is the equivalent of like 1982 and learn for twenty great years Elton and we're gonna basically go up nine -- X nine or ten acts of what we are right now.
They're saying we can get up to.
S&P 12100 another ten or 15%.
That's where we sat the moment before Lehman failed to do not like we forgot that we what what it's like to be up there.
Doesn't I think is that a lot of these strategists as much as you're saying that not influenced by how the politics -- you know they're really riding on the coattails of their own name in that kind of thing.
When you see that the market's been up 6070%.
What do you find that the trend among must -- strategist because we haven't seen a major pullback yet -- are most of them willing to say stay in it.
What's interesting is we if you look at the major brokerage strategist at brokerage house strategy -- that you see around a lot we -- them once -- we did just run Labor Day.
They were busy all summer raising their index targets to meet what the market -- -- -- right and that's that's a natural thing I mean attendance.
Hugged the market plus or minus 10% of operating.
You know they always say that politics is the art of the possible.
-- strategist they basically practicing part of the plausible but they're gonna -- -- client meetings all day long I could be on the road forever.
And their client might be bullish -- might be bearish you better have something that sounds plausible to either side if you have their business.
-- what you should remember as an investor when you hear them opine about the mark.
What about the pullback to mean you mean you say.
It would not what we're not gonna come back down 15% or what had -- -- and I'm going to that if we did it would mean something radically changed different from the way -- and I guess that's what I'm saying I mean if from their perspective.
-- -- in for the long haul up down this sort of this is the same with any -- want some say it.
Are actually a little more tactical and they're saying look I'll get out of I think that it's run its course focus -- gonna try to catch the falling knife and no one of the historical analogies I keep seeing cited by some of these folks is.
Ninety -- force every five we came off a very similar.
Bear market watch out lull like we did early this year.
And we were up huge the rally was almost straight up into 1975.
And you did get a pretty stiff pullback of about fourteen or 15% and then another up leg -- to a new relative high so.
Nothing matches up perfectly with history but I do think that.
You know the one mismatch that I think most average people see and retail investor is really very cautious right now is not really believing the rally.
Is that they don't understand how the market can be up so much percentage wise in an economy that still doesn't you know operate very well right now.
Well nothing very well very good was going on in 1975.
Nothing very that was going on in 1983.
It's the -- with -- pull out of one of these deep recessions.
And when the market has overshot to the downside in -- panicky way which is what happened in those times you just recovering a bit of that -- from here on out.
I think we're right near a level where.
You know if it's not time to prove it -- in the way of companies actually showing you -- -- Earnings that aren't just being improved by cutting costs and facing the bottom line we have sexy the top line and I I agree with that although it's it's not realistic to expect and like the first half of this year -- for big companies to produce top line growth in aggregate when.
The -- was shrinking global economic.
Activity was shrinking it's not possible physically for that to happen but.
We are in a point where we're gonna get it more the tail -- of of GDP growth probably third fourth quarter and yes you do have to show it.
I do really think that the margin story makes sense in other words they caught probably a little too much.
It doesn't mean they're gonna go on start spending freely again but I do think what the market is pricing it is not third quarter earnings it is pricing in first half to death.
And do you would you buy into the snapped back where companies and now gotten soul lean and mean.
That once that top line does start to come in the margin expansion will really be there -- really see.
And Obama -- a windfall profits are -- we'll see profit growth.
I do the question Tim I don't think that's really very -- bowl effect if the top line -- and -- but I think the question is how the market or gotten there yet not I mean I think you could make the case that -- that these levels market is already kind of pricing in a pretty good snapped back.
Although I don't think it's pricing in an irrational snap back.
-- not to get too deeply into numbers but they estimate for 2010 look like a huge jump.
For the SP 500 from oh from from this year them but they're not a huge jump for those same companies in 2008 in other words.
In -- -- economy that wasn't falling off a cliff they pretty much produced what's expected in 2010.
Com wanting to talk a -- -- retail investors.
I've sort of been waiting over the last four or five months for us to go down 678%.
In the retail investors start to panic and say.
Here we go again.
It's going to be like it was last fall I gotta get out.
And it's almost like that flu whereas the retail investor might say it's time for me to get out -- -- institutional investor might say great get out -- again.
He's do you sense that that sort of that balancing act may be why we haven't had a 10% correction.
To some degree yes I think that the professionals are very reluctant sellers right here because you know.
Contrary to common.
-- thought out there most professional investors -- that the average mutual fund it's beating the market wise it beating the market this year.
Because the average stock is beating the market this year it's such a broad rally so they just want to sit on it.
They don't really want to change your portfolio waiting through the end of the year very much I don't think in the retail investors are not trusting I'm nervous.
Earlier in the year there's a lot of talk about how much -- sitting on the factor -- if you were so reluctant even though the market is rallying much of our guests Greg finale was Chiming in saying.
He felt that you still sitting on the sidelines waiting for I don't know what I just asked them but you know how much money have we seen with a look at there's still a lot of money sitting -- -- but like him.
There's a tremendous amount sitting on the sidelines which to me isn't the same -- -- a tremendous amount ready to go into the mark -- Obviously at some point 0% -- money market funds causes people to move off the -- What they've been doing.
Is putting enormous sums into corporate bond funds.
And short term corporate conference and municipal -- so they're kind of inching out on the -- respect to -- not trusting of of equities I think that's why I don't think that high grade.
Corporate municipal bonds.
Really a very attractive right now because they're giving you your -- in your five and 6%.
You know you're not -- out -- inflation over a long period time we get inflation coming back.
And yet it's comfortable to do that you feel like you're getting something I'm not saying it's irrational but I think.
If this bull market.
He's not -- and until we -- retail investors and then it's not gonna.
Retail investors are showing up bold doesn't say however these are not -- son Matt a call about it up.
And you know they've been calling up their brokers in getting in and that's an elitist.
Flood of investments that pushed the gold rally higher -- it's -- -- If we're sitting at in Bristol looking at such a big rally and then this money that's on the -- by the -- it starts to be put to work your will that push the market higher.
The market gold market I think equities if they start to go to the equity act.
It will -- that rotation happens to another and usually it happens not when always pull back to an attractive price it happens when.
People feel like the market's getting away from the or enough time passes that the wounds of last September and last march in terms of what happened of the portfolios start to fade a little.
Right what do you make the volume and activity -- -- -- all -- -- an activity is what we're seeing at least it's a little bit of an increase here from zero at the beginning of the year.
-- positive sign for -- it's still a little bit of window dressings is it still is that they know very depressed level.
It's not a huge market driver at this level.
But it's encouraging I think it until it gets overdone a lot of these things are like that so I think if there's one -- in the Yemeni that we've seen recently.
That I think is good which is dominant companies with very good cash positions.
Looking to be opportunistic Abbott labs Walt Disney -- in in the market celebrated these moves.
Other ones where it seems like it's kind of over reaching.
Kraft -- and hostile way for Cadbury.
Nobody like that nobody on craft is they want them to go build a global -- And I think you seeing similar things and Xerox in going after affiliated computer so.
There's good deals bad deals but the the possibility that CEOs -- -- -- enough to make deals is a good thing.
And we're not yet though at a stage where it's getting crazy.
I keep pointing -- -- an up front about Blackstone deal last week to buy that theme parks today from InBev Anheuser-Busch which you know sea world and all the rest of it.
Extremely conservative valuation extremely conservative capital structure they weren't able to really -- this deal up.
I was joking that Steve Schwartz from a Blackstone you know.
Three years ago that he showed in those terms he would -- take his name off of your public library building that he would actually do that idea -- just not enough embedded profit and it.
That's a good thing that you're you're kind of in forcing sobriety.
On the market and.
You know -- -- interesting get your take on so that I was chatting about this morning with these two Bear Stearns hedge fund managers that are now going to trial.
Could be six -- settled -- I think this trial that.
If you Bear Stearns hedge fund managers who basically the government saying that they were lying to investors run and still get into there.
Odd billion dollar -- right and the government this the first time that we might see some criminal charges in the financial crisis do you think anything's gonna come out this.
There's a potential for something to come of it I mean obviously it's tremendous gray area you know kind of what did you know when did you know and obviously it's going to be the big email trail reminds me of the -- -- from banking -- I think something could come of it.
I always joke that it's it's not time to sell when you see that the guys in suits and handcuffs this time to dry out and and you know just because when did when we did the Enron trial and -- to those convictions come out.
It's pretty close to when you want and actually get more.
Optimistic about the economy in the markets we need a -- I think you might get one here.
Mike thanks man good to see if I -- solely from up parents.
Of course is another very talented -- we've had a couple of -- so far today.
-- I know when we come back when the talk more about the economy Peter -- she's gonna join a -- -- wanna join with us that.
You beyond Columbus Day happy Columbus stated everybody out there that -- markets of 42 points on the Dow today very impressive given the fact that that we had a Heisman last week of 4%.
On a down day to -- -- about the depth.
Months were up for the year were up -- -- the highs when we've been now since.
-- in a while while that number is up there right now the 2009.
Closing high for the Dow is 9864.
And change you know we are at the highest level of the year.
We have to close -- Islam.
Points away from 101000 everybody keeps talking about that -- -- to see what happens if we do indeed close.
Above that number and whether they believe it's a psychological number not having from pure technical standpoint it probably is not it's probably just.
Could be about you know numbers you know what I think -- and start watching right now is whether or not we -- Bob that 101000 mark on volume to show if there's any conviction about -- it getting about him have you seen volume in the last.
I just think every day we talk about this and I think I've seen volume -- on two with three days in the last six months the media have not had any day when any conviction sentinel.
It's a for a few days mean literally a handful of days.
And that's us house a lot about the rally that over the course of time you get all those participants into the market there was a lot of volume in their early buying back in March and I found.
Lots of market movers today most of them to the outside I thought I would break out of -- and -- you was in the -- on this list when you don't know about that that's the year to date changes on these and now -- to -- in the second but I mean you -- -- I'll continue the -- -- we pull out the definitions of market movers on foxbusiness.com.
It's not year to date it's not we today.
It's what caught my ally on the day in what is not moving the markets on that they -- gonna -- that at least what's interesting story number one royal Philips electronics and going the hot talked about -- you talk about Germany we talked about whales today.
-- -- a lot hog.
The electronics company up over 8% on the day announced a profit today when everyone was expecting them to announce a -- Now again this is sort of one of those expectations being so low people expecting a loss that when they come in with a profit it's great gangbusters but.
Bomb it out caught -- a pretty translates that's a global economic recovery.
-- bottom line.
They they were able to make it on an earnings but -- but top line revenues still declined 11% so there you have it that's the feet.
-- item to a indeed this is the chipmaker and really that Intel come out thirties tomorrow.
But AMDs been screaming as of late a five.
Point 3% out.
With AMD is because -- picking this new York stock as I'd look for the year to date chart this stocks rallied.
-- hundred in eaten a (%expletive) mental.
It's like you're the witness and not waiting for the next one on -- -- but they I mean no no question about it -- -- was given up for dead would you agree with that.
I mean I think they were.
They were they done for it's been a huge comeback -- some analysts out there citing.
Improve PC demand other factors.
They got an upgrade today by the way to a buy from the mutual so.
I mean what we'll see what happens with in sell tomorrow as well Intel's -- by the -- almost 2%.
On the day and -- scheduled to report on Thursday number three on -- list Black & Decker quote that's been the case.
Up about six and a half percent today.
They basically said when we announce our earnings later -- next week.
They're going to be hot there watt power tools like what's power tools you know you -- the tiger is that they they were down so much.
The new comps in terms of last year numbers that anything would seem positive this year and that's what they're doing sit here next.
Expectations low and if they want to watch what's happening with the consumer Davis doubled since July 4 Black & Decker has doubled their share price since July 4 that's -- July 4 that's remarkable.
On the target my next -- the reason -- targeted only about a one and a quarter percent today but.
A 52 week intraday high today and we got retail numbers last week from each individual retailer September same store sales declined one point 7% less than about two and a half percent of people with thinking.
But we get the big retail numbers come out on Wednesday from the Commerce Department on what's going on into -- -- for the month of September so -- -- -- What that does without -- o'clock at night we take -- -- on.
He's -- that we've got on the consumer lately have shown extreme strength or an extreme come back but.
Some economists are saying hey that's okay we don't want them to come back as strong as they were before -- All those will be good ones to watch and.
Finally flies are gobbling moving so much on the day but I'm surprised that this one because I thought it would be dropping.
You know over the weekend news came out that -- a clinical trial in phase three was gonna -- at the stop putting new patients in this clinical trial and it was lung cancer drug.
And remember they've got Viagra but they've got Lipitor -- an -- patent they really need it.
-- public this pipeline it's whether by and why it.
And yet you know this could be a setback and yet the stock up -- point 8% so Pfizer surviving if you will on a day when I thought they'd be.
Down in the morning yeah.
We weren't right -- that they hope I that's only one that's actually down on the year yeah I -- down about 33 like I said more recently having a hard time you know.
Getting people convinced that that pipeline is going to be.
Strengthen again when these drugs come awful -- patent.
Here's -- Rick -- right now CEO of a portable.
Solutions he's an -- going bottle and brain trust -- we'll explain that -- listening to me.
Life actually people go -- we are -- online organization and anyone can go to Bogle has not -- -- -- -- heads dot org.
Where we all discuss the thoughts in the business.
Ideas that John -- especially low cost index funds and low cost investing and anyone can go below heads dot org.
I'll -- and so I think -- one of the big questions here for a lot of folks out there is that.
Hey if I don't have a plan and I know age is very important factor we discussed this I don't have a plan how -- I get started.
People are overwhelmed by the idea of getting involved.
That's an excellent question and we of course that the -- has have an excellent answer and it is.
Gullible little heads guide to retirement plan he this book was written by the -- heads community.
And it's completely non profit by the way all of the royalties from the sale of this book go to the Constitution Center in Philadelphia.
Which Jack Bogle was the first chairman of the Constitution Center.
And that this book was written by an online community of people helping people.
To learn how to plan for retirement so it has a lot of information in -- for you.
It is completely non commercial and is all about.
Individuals helping individuals playing for their retirement.
Rick what is the most common mistake people make.
When trying to plan for -- -- time.
Well number one them.
Most common mistake is they do not have a plan -- they don't have a viable plan.
Unfortunately -- -- relying on phase Social Security is not a viable plan.
We need to look at.
More than that I think that there is no.
Way that baby boomers.
Should be thinking that their retirement is going to be.
Taking care of by the government and and we all know that because I am a baby boomer.
And so planning for retirement is the biggest thing that people -- need to do.
How much that should -- be able to count on Social Security I guess that's my point right now I know it's a big unknown that that's it should be able to count on it.
At all -- -- would you advise someone to say look yeah I would count pennies on the dollar from what you're putting in the Social Security right now.
About what you're talking about is discounting the amount that you're going to be getting from Social Security I think that what is going to happen.
Is that the age at which you could collect Social Security is going to be pushed out.
Full retirement is.
I think that the way to solve the problem is to push it out to maybe 6869.
Here for people have to put in longer and take out.
Last because they won't be living -- long unfortunately but that is that's the that's the answer in I think that the benefits will be -- but they will most definitely be laughs.
Rick you know scares me as when I talked to people who say they're dipping into their 401K.
Right now -- that's just sounds frightening.
I agree is that they -- doing that thing is there ever -- case and when that's appropriate.
Well if you had ten million dollars I guess it would be located dip into your 401K if but -- people who are using that are relying on that for the -- retirement.
That has to be the last resort to pay your current living expenses the dip into your 401K and if you're dipping into your 401K to take a vacation of.
My car I'm not a good thing yet say it Rick we've got to go that well -- quick last question here you said that in the biggest mistake -- people are you know in a planned.
Well if -- to decide today to get into one I mean what's the best advice for someone.
Trying to play catch up if you.
-- individuals as tough as it is right now need to not put retirement savings off.
We still need to save say 10% of the income that you have coming in needs to be put away for retirement.
Even in these tough times that you have to continue to save.
Even though times are tough.
-- we appreciate it.
Sale and all the little heads out -- for -- -- -- guide to retirement planning has the answer is that I thought I.
I'm very portfolio solutions and of course a number of the -- -- -- for I think we're gonna take a quick break here you know we got a lot of people still to talk to -- widgets he's gonna join his feet agreed to gradually Peter Barnes is gonna join us Adam Shapiro business.
Stimulus isn't working we're -- -- Peter reaching.
We'll be factors -- Let's say thank you to everyone who sent their condolences on my LSU tigers in the beginning of the if so spoiled the calculus -- the number one team in the country have what two national championships you know you get used to it Salem.
Anyway hey we have got an important topic -- topic to discuss -- know a lot of folks talk about stimulus every day they're like where would the money spent.
Is it being spent is it working Peter Marie she University of Maryland business professor and -- Joining us from DC right now computer it thank you so much for joining enough.
-- -- nice to be with you all right while I mean.
Is this stimulus work -- Not very well we're getting some help from it but by -- large was spending far too much money to the amount of stimulus that we're getting.
And that's because stimulus package is always have a temporary effect and the Obama administration has a lot of trouble spending money productively.
I mean we're not using very much -- -- of it for infrastructure and we haven't gotten much of it out as a consequence we're not creating many jobs.
Now if we were I know Larry Summers said in a letter to a Republican House leader John Boehner he said thanks largely to the Recovery Act -- to see the economy.
Turn would we see the economy turn or are we seeing it in spite of the government spending would this have happened anyways just -- -- that because of the timing issue.
You know snake oil sales have been used to sell -- -- to people would favors.
Their body's immune systems ward off the fever and then they would say well look the -- next you -- and snake oil is snake oil.
Know the economy is recovering because.
You know if there's a certain natural recovery process in the economy and -- -- totally tanks.
Like you did in the great depression and if it did in the late 1870.
But no I think this is the natural process of recovery we're getting a little bit of help from the stimulus and next year we will get more but it will be temporary in nature.
When that wears off.
And let's we fix what's fundamentally broken.
Namely our huge trade deficit which is dependence on foreign oil and one way trade with China there won't be enough demand for American goods and services.
And then we'll take the second depth.
And let's of course you know -- do something like that I don't -- neither well I mean I have to tell you what I think I mean.
I think the W I see the W and -- -- -- kind of recovery -- got -- we just a big huge drop and now we talk about a magnificent rate of growth 3%.
We usually get much bigger bounces from much -- -- that we're getting right now.
Not -- goodness OK I won't Summers went on to say and that that most importantly we've seen substantial change.
And the trend of job losses out there I'm not so sure that I can agree with that.
All he's not -- his own government's press release of the last week.
Let all Larry Larry Larry needs become the class they had -- of spending so much listening.
Listening to Obama's never neverland that more demand same supply will lower.
Health care costs and meet at -- but it felt like a labor union leader.
No no no no no no doubt last week the Department of Labor said that it would be revising upward.
The job losses that it has been recording over the last.
Although six or seven months -- at least -- are -- -- that -- -- 900000.
More over the weekly jobless claims -- wholly inconsistent.
With the kind of declining job losses would -- at 520.
K that's a lot.
And too much to be justified by -- losing 250000.
Jobs -- Now we're still losing jobs.
We're still got a problem outside in what likely to have a 3% but jobless recovery.
That is the unemployment rate will stay around and -- hot -- -- -- -- out.
Ten point 310 point five the trouble is it's going to -- about ten and that we have the downside of the W.
It'll jump from there and that will not be pretty.
If we go into a second dead after a modest period of growth.
Then we're looking at -- unemployment in the range of 15%.
That would be a tragedy you do not want to witness good -- -- start to see discretionary type conditions.
Right now though the economy should recover the stock market should stay healthy but main street won't be very happy about it it'll be much like the eighties.
I got a real quick question -- from Georgia sort of reflected this is well we need Shia they need us how we fix.
Us now being totally service dependent economy and dependent on China basically to make this stuff that we want to -- Well the question is -- we depend on trying to everything we wanna buy that exports -- what's five times more than we import.
That creates enormous you know sort of deficit in demand in the United States we have to simply get them to why more bus stop.
What -- send us less of theirs namely we have to get the trade balance that because we can't go on.
Having 5% current account deficits when the economies of -- -- in fact that we get the economy of the phone wanted to be seven or 8%.
We just at the bar too much for them right -- -- infection.
I have they managed their way out -- -- -- Dolly on convergence which would stimulate.
Of their currency that they aren't willing to make -- that it had great distortion of the global economy you are great to have on the Chad thank you so much Peter -- -- everybody here in Ireland that is our thoughts are so much anonymous.
Good -- Can't absolutely outstanding -- the morning get to the -- though we gotta talk about it the TARP with Peter Barnes and we got of course more health care.
With rich Edson coming up -- -- -- -- -- could see the health care in his sleep.
Doesn't -- round the clock this coming up.
Well welcome back Zander Smith Chris -- -- with you we will not go to Peter blinds because apparently there was -- suspicious package.
On the lawn of the White House they had to evacuate everybody.
I just hear Peter trying to get back out there let's and I got to live television shot nominal but I can't give somebody -- let me back out on -- lot I think that's gonna do so -- running around -- just trying to -- a lot -- -- trying to scale the fence.
That's how I don't see it to try and utilized I'm sure he is thanks for the effort there Peter but you know we can always go to rich rich -- -- DC.
On no such trouble for one rid -- -- joins us right now at a hopefully give us the lowdown on what's going on today and that helped him understand -- did -- -- a bit drastic trade changes over the weekend.
And things are completely different now than they will we last -- to you on Friday.
Not hey guys are not so much and by the way I can.
You decide shot because we we -- -- rule here no suspicious packages in the bureau that's kind of an oppressed have a one.
Yet know where we're we're serious here and -- never -- OK not so much on the -- -- front in fact the Senate Finance Committee gonna vote on the bill tomorrow it's the same bill that they finished writing.
Late last week so the one big change that we're seeing here is America's Health Insurance Plans is the health insurance lobby.
They've come out with a new study commissioned by price Waterhouse Coopers and it shows that to the average family in ten years.
Will because of the senate finance bill pay 4000 dollars more a year in premiums because of the senate finance bill but you know that is -- study done by the health insurance industry and it's really their first step for words coming out against this bill -- it.
They've sort of laid up -- we're sorry to see some more industries hospital groups are having.
A little bit of trouble with the senate finance bill they say it doesn't ensure as many people is as they would like and so some some groups are quietly starting to come out a bit against.
Some of the things that are going on in congress -- rates that.
Number that you mentioned the hospital groups coming out and saying look this bill only shares 91%.
Of the population according to the CBO how much when that when -- bill came out and at 91% was there how many people how many groups really circle that and said wait a minute.
-- -- 9% of the population uninsured.
What number do you think is gonna be acceptable to all these groups and even to the people in congress to say okay.
Now it's worth 800 or 900 or trillion dollars to ensure.
At the difference here it doesn't sound like much at first but is -- -- -- Right and you know some groups have been looking at 95% as the magic number hospital groups struck a deal with the administration and said okay.
If you include folks who are here illegally of the population.
Have to be -- 97%.
Of all American citizens and in hospital say that we would sign offer we would support.
Some of the cuts to Medicare services that that are going to be made to hospitals and Medicare payments they'll sign on board with that that's the agreement they would Senate Finance Committee that's the agreement that -- at the White House.
Of the population.
Doesn't cut it you can help your hospital and they want that insured number to go as high as she would be possible because they have so many folks.
Showing up looking for emergency services hospitals have to treat them they do.
And then a lot of times at these people don't have insurance they're stuck with the -- in the writing down as an industry hundreds of millions if not billions of dollars each year because of that.
-- -- thanks man.
Thanks fast guys rich -- from DC getting -- caught up to date done now what's happening.
With his health care proposal in -- and that I'm not gonna do any shopping today no I cannot afford to do any shopping especially after -- -- -- and we talked about retirement earlier today you get the state eight yet that 80% of your annual living expenses now.
You have to -- for each year retirement.
Intuitively I can't I'm probable Bologna sandwich from.
Hadn't got any and afford to -- about Bloomingdale's close enough.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Our own Adam Shapiro is going to be up after the break and he's given us a little inside look at what people are -- and if they're buying anything at all.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- Welcome back to foxbusiness.com.
Live wanna remind you had -- get in touch -- -- several ways he -- -- -- live at foxbusiness.com you can follow us on Twitter at.
At the end live download our podcasts on iTunes search for fund their business and we also be able hoops -- for Fox Business.
This is really interesting just entreaties the fact that we're gonna about the Bloomingdale's in just a second Adam Shapiro that they're gonna get a look at you know our folks shopping on this holiday that got the day off.
Already people Chiming in saying that they're doing a lot more online shopping I think that's really and -- in years past but now people more than ever.
One that they do -- homework say they're in the store but they go home and -- online order to save the travel costs of heading to store their car.
-- 75% -- Nebraska says he does holiday shopping and let's.
Very common you know it's so easy and there there are plenty of deals to be had online check eBay -- got an analyst's upgrade last week I remember people talking about how.
But looking for bargains looking for deals -- may not desolate buyer gifts on eBay but if he needs something 1 -- -- to be getting easier Arthur Corey talk about spoiled my wife does most of the shopping.
-- -- Anyway -- to be -- that could be bad.
Adam Shapiro joins us right now -- -- Bloomingdale's is and how much shopping and you've done in business is what 8 o'clock this morning.
We've been here since 8 o'clock this morning I haven't started my holiday shopping but what -- that The National Retail Federation says.
40% of Americans.
A little America will do their holiday shopping this year before -- America.
We have met Chris got a single -- does say something at -- but everybody this is one of the hot items by the way but again the data is that that -- everybody in a minute.
But this is from -- personnel.
New York red unique to Bloomingdale's and it's only 28 dollars it's not even lonely -- -- This is the guy it's only -- right but I thought pellets out of luck Sandra when you vote for this picture he's you know yeah.
But other line retail sales this year.
Retail sales holiday sales last here you know you're high and Tiffany's.
Down 30% Saks Fifth Avenue down 26%.
It was -- a bad year in 2008 to 2009.
National Retail Federation saying to be down about 1%.
But it depends where you go electronics and excellent media out.
Ten to 15%.
-- department stores could be down 10% it depends how that particular store has managed its inventory.
Do not expect the mass of -- like we had last year because most of the stores Bloomingdale's Macy's.
All of them have.
Really lowered their in.
And tourists at -- I have to tell you I know that first floor at Bloomingdale's all too well and then fact that no that your in the Chanel counter just at the front of the -- when you walk in off of Lexington have -- You like -- but what everybody here and people there I mean are they just shopping for sales are they gonna spend more I mean what -- they -- Or what are they doing we've spoken to some people who are you know some of them -- shopping for sales others are just here because again 40% begin their shopping before.
Right Halloween but I spoke couple it was a lot of people this morning and I had to -- gonna spend more this year than last year are you gonna spend the same about you gonna spend less.
And I only had one couple says they're gonna spend more -- -- that coupled by the way was from United Kingdom and the amount of course certainly get -- But if -- -- think tomorrow.
But they get about maybe about sixty US dollars.
And this is a great question from Bragg and LA.
He says he he's been looking at you know consumer habits he says he has -- -- the -- you see that more people are in the -- But they don't necessarily have any shopping back they might be heading to the store but they're not buying anything.
That the case.
That's an interesting point -- well I gotta tell -- here.
Take a look at the -- -- people are buying stock.
You've got the medium brown -- that the people are buying.
-- -- what are they -- -- make up we spoke with.
One of the analysts from Alex partners and they're telling us makeup -- -- -- now there's certain things that will always sell.
The key to this shopping season to this year for department stores like Bloomingdale's.
And for the high end retailers.
Will be how are they controlling their inventory and what we saw last year was a massive movement of product -- Saks Fifth Avenue -- -- -- 70% off.
In November December last year -- -- -- that it's here that they've been able to lower than it.
-- not have anything to mark down -- good stuff man.
Thank you and I Chris I'm gonna bring up again Chris I think this is -- -- color not the New York.
This for you guys -- that -- -- -- yeah.
I don't know at this point I actually -- -- -- -- more than on things that we appreciate it.
Snaps out of Bloomingdale's giving us the lowdown is it's a scary time for retailers that's for sure it's -- to -- how -- -- but now.
The retail federation believes so many you're gonna spend.
You'll both for Halloween evening we're starting right now the holiday show one thing I think that can that store should look out foreign country that probably -- -- invest billions of dollars and this.
Is people are doing their homework now more than ever they're going -- to looking exactly what they want whether it's you know home goods in the exact dimensions are.
Close exact size color all of -- that you know they're going to the stores and they know exactly what they want and that's not a good thing for retailers because guess what you -- -- knowing what you want and you don't.
I five or six things just started your -- -- three of four it.
Keep an eye on.
FedEx and UPS because as -- we were talking about so many people are doing their shopping online -- out before we go we got a couple more minutes.
Something caught my -- -- -- -- -- it.
RH if you're a homeowner -- that was so not because there's an interesting shift going on as far as the foreclosures and the delinquencies that we're seeing with mortgages.
It it is estimated right now about -- dot com they provide a lot of real estate data what's happening in the mortgage market you know there -- estimating right now that nearly won it in.
Four homes with mortgages was worth.
Worth less than the value of the property.
At the end of June -- this is the most recent data showing that I'd be more expensive homes.
Are now facing foreclosure in larger numbers than they were at the beginning.
Of the housing crisis to remember all the pocket purse was about the sub prime mortgages.
All that's changing now we're talking about those that -- -- prime mortgages which basically allowed folks that weren't making an -- by an 800000 dollar home.
But they did anyway they got these mortgages he sort of so called exotic mortgages -- now we're seeing foreclosures -- -- Any higher end of the housing market which is on the really interesting shaft.
Is very agency -- you know it's that goes back to the 30000 dollar millionaires guys that would though is that I feel flashing cash -- -- -- -- -- didn't -- -- Though 100% loan to value on these on mortgages.
The interest only mortgages that people were taken out -- and now it's finally coming to -- and the other thing to have noticed in -- You know you may notice is doing your travels.
But when I go back to Atlanta -- my family.
Suburbs so you know it's different than you it.
Huge houses that the builders built and they cannot sell and they're paying taxes I can't finish at -- making -- -- you're exactly right but they're not really.
You'll dumping them on the markets and I would they still have the sign out front that says from one point five million or whatever and not -- on them.
They're just sitting there so I wonder what's going to give on that -- by the home bill is finally gonna say look -- I have to sell -- the cut at the dump on the market what do they hold out and will they be able to make it to the end.
-- and that's what that that's it's happening somebody's got to try to hold on for so long during the housing crisis they're just starting elect going in some cases choosing not.
To pay their mortgage they might be paying their credit card bills their electricity to all there -- other.
Bills on on time but they're choosing not to -- after mortgage anymore because it them.
The -- the value of your house now is worth significantly less than the mortgage -- and now that doesn't feel good and -- that's caught that's causing rippling effect.
Who steps into buying these -- mansions because -- -- that I can understand the investor buying.
A dozen homes that are worth the small homes or foreclosed upon that they -- -- whatever 40000 dollars for 50000 dollars for -- -- -- mansion that was -- two point eight million dollar home now -- in foreclosure in the bank -- -- -- one point seven an -- whatever web sites popping up all -- like zillow dot com -- you can go on there and you can -- on the I just wondered if if we're getting -- and investors.
Find those two nations see how that -- flat out looks like we're at the end of the shout -- does that.
Good assist -- -- really -- -- -- everybody has become -- and we'll see a mob.
Enjoy the rest of Columbus -- everyone.
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