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There's about our current market concerns me turn back the clock eighteen -- -- name being what traders.
One look at today at that time the acting duo of Robert Redford and Paul Newman teamed up.
To win seven Academy Awards for the sting.
That was including best picture People Magazine hit the newsstands for the first time -- -- at the start of The Great Gatsby.
And Patty Hearst the daughter publisher Randolph -- took him.
I hate this -- of -- and by the finding liberation army and Berkeley California.
But what Justin -- -- isn't that day in 1974.
The markets and one of the worst bear market ones in history from January 111973.
To December 6 1974.
-- down lost over 45%.
There similarities between Allen and dollar devaluation was one we -- in the middle of an economic slowdown in oil was the cause of concern.
Over the future and making America it tells what we can learn from holding a Teddy Weisberg -- very unpleasant -- trader.
And financial historian John Steele Gordon -- into the tyranny and to being here going.
I don't undermine his story -- won't need for -- we walked through some of the anecdotal evidence of what was similar about that period in time in this one.
But why people looking back to this period of sending three -- or perhaps as a model for what we can see this year.
Also -- fourth -- the worst bear market of a post war era.
-- it was of severe.
Contraction in the market was like 47%.
Something like that we're having approximately the same right now.
And so I think that's what people think there might be a similarity between the two.
-- in 1973 -- and that's important to mention the very beginning we talked about dollar devaluation and on the economic contraction in the oil price and I mean you tell me is it.
Unrealistic to draw comparisons or is this one the best comparison we have -- -- person post World War II error.
Well I guess that what is past is prologue but I can tell you 1974.
I was standing in virtually the same spot.
I was 34 years old.
It was a bear market from I have a thousand.
To the lows which was down about 45 -- 46%.
I remember it I remember it well.
It seem like the end of the world then from a trading standpoint and clearly that period we've been going through now.
Seems very similar and I have made that comparison now for many many months it.
With his endless what I call water torture of drip drip drip.
Saw the markets from highs to -- sell off.
About as much to be done now now I think the circumstances are a little different now but the end result is always the same with the market -- clearly -- period now.
Where we had discounted and basically -- the baby out with the bath water.
And -- expect if you can George similarity.
I think 7374.
In its -- was about eighteen months.
We're pretty much at the same at times and now.
And that lastly I had a phone call -- the trader who I traded within 197374.
I called me last week and he said.
You know what we are very close to the bottom this is 7374.
All over again.
So you know John it's interesting because that -- brings up a lot of very keen Finland from -- a lot has changed in the structure of the kinds of products we use.
But one of the things that's very similar I imagine it's confidence that confidence is really broken right now.
What do you -- to -- confidence back and an -- and what do you think we're getting violent -- Well I think it just is not a question of doing something to -- confidence it's a question of movement mood of the market changing alone and that that the mysterious process.
On whether it's -- -- Rosen what was right we have nothing to fear but fear itself and fear is you know over the running.
You know the world right now but as you know Andy Tobias once said that you know this is time to put in a good word agreed.
You know if it's interesting -- John because you -- and things is he had President Nixon resign.
-- during that period timing -- as you have a new president being elected so he won't we talk about allowing it to Yale.
I imagine that some of what -- is in is happening in leads in both cases as well.
-- a change in administration in a change administration's gonna go out there and point the weaknesses.
In a way to perhaps help out -- position in the next administration.
Well I think -- that's dramatic change of administration people have a sense of -- something knew was coming up their fresh -- you know new people of coming in.
Of course this this time or have we have an election and the American people made -- decision.
I'm in 1974 of course was president had to resign in disgrace it was a very traumatic experience for me for the American people.
You know Teddy and one thing is that we see where we're showing Ed that you probably can't see that's what we're showing a full screens and boards and where stocks had come down.
In 1910 -- -- technique -- where they are today and the similarities are act actually a little bit frightening to tell you the truth.
-- but one it's staggering statistics -- as the number lease on Friday without loss of 533000.
What -- liked men only saw job losses because right -- it feels like this is just the B at the beginning of those big scary numbers.
Well you know it's hard to remember what it was like exactly but I think that the hole the hole.
Focus of psychology and confidence is really what it's all about and I think the reason we thought strengthen the marketplace we are perhaps why we'll certainly see some strength in the short term.
Is that market.
Traditionally get way -- and way -- sold and clearly we're in an environment now.
Where the market is doing better while the economic headline news couldn't be worse and I think from -- viewpoint -- -- bury him where -- is 73 the end of that the setup and 7374.
Is that at some point is sort of like -- the data -- elected you know you just can't knock them down anymore.
The market basically prices -- the bad news they priced in the worst case scenario.
And they begin to look ahead -- market traditionally do.
To hopefully what -- will be the silver lining behind a lot of these behind a lot of these clouds that have been hanging over our heads for the last eighteen months and I think this is.
The phone call that I got last week from them that freedom that I worked within 7374.
This is what he would point out to me.
And he's absolutely right.
I don't know that we turned the corner I don't know that we've made a bottom but clearly the market is telling us that yes the economic -- is terrible but it is not the end of the world.
And we're going to move forward and we're gonna trade out of this.
All right well John and -- and you guys so much a great topic of conversation Teddy you never look younger as far as I'm concerned if I were heading and -- learn about ten years they have.
It twice so handsome so well spoken.
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