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-- says that foreclosures currently account for sixty to 70%.
Of monthly wholesale the Las Vegas.
Is that good news or bad news who knows Larry Murphy might -- the housing analyst at sales track.
And is joining us now more on housing hey I guess the data Larry's good in the sense that sales in the picking up.
-- bad -- side they're picking up because these are distressed sales or foreclosures how do you read it.
Well you're exactly right brand the sales volume of resale homes in Las Vegas is running about 3000 homes per month now.
The problem is that two out of three of them are bank owned properties.
And these homes are selling at a deep discount and it's dragging the prices down where last month the bank owned median price was -- 160000.
And that's we have an.
That's not good.
The question everybody has is how long is that going to last -- that seems to be the the big question right now is where is the bottom.
And now a lot of us have a feeling that the bottom is very close but still -- prices in Las Vegas last month dropped 2000 dollars from 480000 -- -- -- suddenly median overall.
That includes both the bank owned properties and regular people like you -- me this our home.
You know -- yeah I was out in Vegas couple years ago and I went -- played golf when he's new courses that they -- like forty miles outside of town some drive and out.
There were just all these new home developments with thousands of homes and giant signs proclaiming 0% interest to tattered -- I'm thinking who's gonna occupy all these homes the population has been growing.
But I guess now the reverse is true Larry where are all the people -- are they still -- and just renting but.
If they're renting -- they would theoretically also still need a place to live.
-- -- the problem really goes back.
A long time ago and that the fact is that we built too many homes in Las Vegas in 20045.
And six so the answer was nobody was going to -- -- them.
Well you're right the reason I got -- was because there was an artificial demand there was no legitimate need to build that many houses we -- 38000 homes in 2005.
And really we only needed to build about 25000.
And what happened was people were buying extra homes investors speculators.
There was an artificial demand that cause these homes rebuilt and combined with cheap mortgage money availability.
We overbuilt and right now -- -- we're just trying to absorb those or build homes and get back to a normal situation.
Larry it's called gambling.
In Vegas -- health and where.
Larry David Dow.
-- what about the population growth in -- they get how long is it gonna take that area to soak up.
The excess inventory that's on the -- Well that's a good question because we recently had some conflicting studies one said that we actually.
Claim that we had actually lost 101000 people in the state of Nevada in 2008.
Most of the local experts though don't believe that we think that our monthly in.
Migration number is probably down around 4000 people per month per month now which is about half what it was for the last five or six years.
So we don't have as many people moving into Las Vegas as we used to and so I want to take longer to absorb those extra homes.
Most experts feel that it's -- -- take another year or two to achieve a balanced supply and demand scenario in Las Vegas.
Well -- Larry let's that I hope that balance that out because those kind of markets are not good for anybody because it is depressed the statistics that makes headlines.
We talk about it people see it -- -- -- -- home because prices are falling prices won't recover until people start buying homes again.
Well you know with a flat panel TV cinema we call -- you know you don't mind -- -- be cheaper next month so it just keeps getting cheaper next month.
Your -- you're actually right nobody wants to buy on the way down -- one -- -- once the bottom has been reached but I'll tell you what.
Right now the properties in Las Vegas in my opinion are undervalued again we're back to what prices were in 2003.
So you can roll the clock back for five years.
And I believe sincerely that a year or two from now people are gonna say gee I wish I -- bought some of those homes in Las Vegas in 2008.
When I could buy them for.
A hundred dollars per square foot that caused him.
That the prices will go back up again in the future and like I say nobody knows exactly.
-- that's gonna have you know the real today -- -- house prices only always go up or -- the same blackjack dealer because it hit on eighteen.
Self interest of party Larry Murphy -- -- -- sales track did luck out there.
That you guys -- -- -- -- for the World Series of poker because -- -- Need -- income somehow.
Thank you -- it's it's -- that is that the real now but I'll see you there because I do play the World Series will not kidding I don't I'll -- over the first one out what about the -- if you look around the table and you can't tell the -- is the but it is you do that now playing poker no -- for the soccer so I got up -- -- thank you very much Merry Christmas.
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