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Just heard earlier thirty year fixed rate mortgage is back above 5% up point 29%.
Treasury rates longer term treasuries -- there heading higher -- -- kill any economic recovery in the making.
Being greenhouses here to answer he's with the equity strategy group and military -- company in -- -- -- to say what you write all day long every day day and ready -- here.
Is that what -- again there -- a lot of explanation as to why rates are going up but is that gonna put the kibosh on any economic.
Covering -- it's certainly a real threat you know as you mentioned longer term mortgage rates are are trending higher there about five point 3% depending on where you look.
Man and that is certainly higher than levels that we've seen them out recently which helped spur on an increase in in in mortgage refinancing and and some purchasing.
As long as rates continue to have higher certainly there's going to be an element of threat.
With respect to any economic recovery because of course the government the administration treasury has targeted housing market as a source of recovery.
And it in the hopes of it.
Undergoing that recovery you gonna need to see some stabilization in housing market and that was predicated on low mortgage rates.
But what can the treasury and what can the federal is are really do about it because it's buying what one and a quarter trillion dollars -- the mortgage securities.
It's not about half a trillion dollars so far.
Also buying longer term treasuries but it seems like.
By doing that may be -- it it becomes the self the -- cycle like it's igniting concerns.
That are pushing -- higher like inflation concerns and so it becomes it it's a never ending cycle.
That does no good he really really got it right right there -- of their purchase probably 300 billion longer term treasury.
You've and the irony of that as you -- out was you know before it meant that the market is concerned about whether that the increase in treasury rates is gonna.
Lead to an increase in in fed purchases but the irony as you laid out is that as they increased their level purchasing it's gonna put.
Upward pressure on inflationary pressures which puts upward pressure on longer term treasury yields so like you said there's -- sort of negative feedback loop.
I think I'm more inflation people who get more worried about the size of the Fed's balance sheet and inflation and pushes shields up and and how they reconcile that.
That's sort of internal debate that the markets -- remains to be seen.
One thing I would say is that the Fed is fighting the market right now in the market for a variety of reasons is telling the -- got longer term treasury rates are appropriate.
If the Fed wants to step in front of the bond market and it can do so but it's probably going to be losing -- Without them the stock market broadly speaking because you've had what about a 40% run off the bottom in the broad markets have we ever had.
A run of that magnitude predicting the end of a recession before -- is that is that.
War if your concern.
The short answer is no dating back to the post until -- -- in the post world -- two hour.
The market is never rallied strongly in anticipation of of a recession now I am by nature skeptics so.
Just by simply saying it hasn't happened in the past doesn't mean it can't happen now.
You know for any any economic indicator I would assert.
You know it just because history rhymes doesn't mean -- can't repeat.
That said this has never happened before.
And -- but but at the same -- the more important point is that that rally was on the belief that the level of decline in economic indicators was invading.
But we're still contracted we're gonna contract again in the second quarter one and a half two and a half percent -- but the level of decline is is leveling off a little bit here.
With a market finds itself now after its rally isn't an internal debate of sorts you can only rally and have been saying this for weeks you can only -- so far unless bad.
At some point the lateral trading range that we've been -- has to be broken out one way or the other and what's gonna do that.
An increasing and weakness and after some level stabilization or growth until we see one or the other equities are gonna remain in this range between 815.
That that could be months and months and months it's been six months -- And thank you so much my putter then greenhouse -- -- back and company equity strategy.
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