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Well -- I'm looking at just one indicator that's in the negative right now and that's the vick's.
The volatility index is down about 5% right now people do see sort of a co -- -- attitude.
Laying over our economy in the land are they being too cautious or too 201 -- -- I should say about some change for the future.
Well I think like again the Fed doesn't exactly know what they're gonna do I think I I agree it while I actually have a more conservative -- an -- for the year had and that's why I.
Moved up my forecast relative to what -- -- but he's probably closer to -- but at the end of the day they're gonna move as they need to they're starting to open up that window a little bit they're saying hey -- economy might be good -- contract that we can actually exit a little bit.
These strategies -- -- get anything they don't that are going to be Salant.
Mortgage backed securities anytime -- not -- be reducing about -- and so I think this is sort of there's a -- out there.
That things are gonna get good enough fast enough that they'll be able to at least stay on track and not have to -- you them more support.
But also I think it's important note and I think while mom should -- out and it's just too with you this Tuesday just -- fed tightening there's want to just normalizing rates raising rates is something reasonable in line with growth.
And then there's actually tightening monetary policy those are two different things before anyway and we should point out that the -- now just lost about 27.
Of the 3033 points that it had gained at the moment so something is spooking the horses here Alan.
I don't know if it's -- -- in that anything in that statement.
I do think -- the Fed has played an interest in game here trying to be more explicit about its exit strategy trying to communicate very clearly with the market.
You know time magazine may have been a little bit premature on this thing I mean the -- act last year was very remarkable but that was sort sort of throwing everything at the -- and the kitchen sink at the problem.
Getting that stuff out in a carefully balanced way to prevent problems from coming back may turn out to be the -- -- Hold on let me get ahead -- is it possible that the market is pulling back a bit -- because the US dollar's strengthening against the Euro in the wake of the Fed's announcement.
Well that's a possibility but but and you know full name for one moment to the nexus stock market can react to all kinds of things.
I agree with down we really don't know what -- responding to at the moment Nicole -- a ladies on the floor of the NYSE you got any sense of what's moving the market now.
You know I just think as we we've watched the treasury taking up the two year ticking higher and yet the Treasury's remaining higher.
But also the Fed speak that we saw Alex mentioned the good news -- we -- we weren't good news and bad news -- and that we heard the good news of the economy picking up.
And also deteriorating labor market -- -- -- household spending was improving.
But the other side businesses reluctant to add to payrolls also economic activity remaining week for a time.
It just shows that the Fed is sort.
Treading water here at this time and one watching these treasurys very carefully watching that as well five dollar is -- quickly reversing here and this is climbing higher Phil Flynn what do you think -- You know I.
I think it's sort of the post that day you know relief here we kind of knew what was happening in the market was leaning in one direction and and then.
They got what they were looking for now it's time to take some money off the table I think that's -- we're seeing in the stock market.
I think it's doing what we're seeing of the bonds and maybe something that we've seen.
In commodities as well so -- -- of the -- reaction when everybody expects something we get all built -- court we get for airport.
It happens in the what is what is there left to do other than to take profits and I think that's really what's -- -- -- it over here.
Don't let things get back to the Fed's statement things are getting better we knew they weren't gonna change things.
Bottom line -- you know you're not -- -- the Federal Reserve in December come out and make a major change you know it's likes telling kids at Santa Claus is coming late this year.
You know so that wasn't gonna happen but obviously next year it's going to be the challenge I mean this is the last fed statement of the year.
Next year is going to be critical and it Ben Bernanke wants to be men of the year two years in a -- It's not gonna be given the economy out of the Great Depression it's get them out of -- -- Chad again good to see the major market Alan Murray is staying with a dollar.
For second do you think the Fed cares at all about the value of the -- they.
Prescribed any sort of remedy within their powers in order to address oh I think they have to care about value of the dollar type one of the things I'd be interested in knowing and maybe Lyle and Diane have some thoughts on this.
You know -- Ben Bernanke went -- to this crisis basically saying.
I can't worry about asset prices if I.
To my policy to deal in any -- with asset prices of any kind.
I I'm going to be making a mistake that's the lesson from the Great Depression.
I heard that kind of thinking changing in the wake of what happened a year ago.
Making his job more complicated that he does have to keep an eye out for asset bubbles even perhaps ahead of signs of real inflation.
And and -- while I wonder how that complicates.
The job -- -- go ahead.
Well I don't think there's much doubt that you can't the expect the Fed to continue the policy pursued.
Before this financial crisis which was to take -- view that the go ahead -- not the asset bubbles pop and will not -- afterward.
That turned out to be not a good strategy.
He's going to be very very difficult to figure out what the Fed's going to deal and particularly whether should -- its monetary policy tools to deal of asset bubbles.
Or use primarily its regulatory powers.
When Diana I want to switch from the Fed into the treasury because.
The president himself has said his whole strategy in dealing with new financial regulations is to prevent future bubbles and burst is is it possible for -- to happen -- up in a free market economy.
No it's not -- mean we know that -- -- -- -- bubbles are a natural artifact of market economies that says we can certainly prevent the degree to which we went through it.
The last time around I think -- right about the complexity.
I think the regulatory side is where the Fed's gonna do it you will give a little bit more on the treasury site through through the regulatory side -- already asking many banks to stress tests -- balance sheet against the major asset price collapse so they actually implicitly putting asset prices into the monetary policy creation through the regulatory arm.
But it really is a very touchy -- qualitative rather than quantitative process and that's orange -- that all that's Iraq -- hold -- -- brave new world -- a lot of roles I will -- though with the explicit nature which the Fed laid out about labor markets about what they thought about the economy they also give us all the flags to watch for.
The change in policy -- that -- -- surprised that -- -- -- that outlook.
There and change policies of that there late really laid out a map.
For the year had so as we wrap this up we're faced with this cover picture of time magazine it's sort of I don't know what they did that mosaic that are -- -- -- -- mosaic.
They mosaic this picture Ben Bernanke as person of the year -- last -- -- beginning with Lyle.
Does -- -- -- does he keep his job should -- keep his job.
I think he will be confirmed tonight -- I think time is quite right.
This is a man of the hour he kept this from going over the edge to the -- -- vicinity of this -- Oh yeah he'll get reconfirmed.
I I think time made the right choice but I think that the toughest job may be the one a lies ahead.
-- At I -- -- the same category I do think I made the right choice I think he did really bring -- -- he really.
-- acted very aggressively to keep averting us from another Great Depression.
And I think that's really misunderstood on Capitol Hill about the problem is those people who appear on the front page front cover of time magazine off the ball fairly quickly from their pedestal.
And -- it's.
But whatever certainly haven't Adolf Hitler and Joseph Stalin and I don't want to put him in those companies.
All right thank you folks great is your honor to have -- yeah exactly appreciated.
Good to see all of you Lyle Gramley Alan Murray and Diane swamp Phil Flynn and the corporate leaders as well giving us the color commentary from the floor.
Where the Fed holds interest rates steady -- -- to a.
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