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As Neil Ferguson is offering sharp insights on money in the history financial crisis with his current PBS documentary -- -- of money based on his book.
Of the same name the economist turned author turned TV -- -- in Davos this week offering his insight to business leaders.
And he joins me right now Neil good to see you good to see you want to say I'm not really an economist on the historian.
Yeah yeah Harvard I don't expect continued advances to -- that it with the economists -- -- this is wrong with the bank that the professor of history OK last sat down.
I I -- analyst -- things that you said to me because you've had a lot -- pretty -- predictions.
Use it to me last time in second this is about four to six months to get you said the TARP.
Will easily double in -- we will have yet no growth or -- growth in 20091%.
Growth in 2010.
That you do not like this -- an ounce packages and what they do want currencies and compliment to get to let that.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- I do and indeed I'm I'm more pessimistic in fact about growth this year I think it's going to be this office the section we've seen since the 1980s.
-- it's certainly not a Great Depression this is one big recession we're looking and I'm also extremely alarmed about the magnitude of the deficit.
That is not being run by the it states we're looking out of -- requirement that could be as high as two trillion dollars this year.
But we like to know -- that's good -- finds because I can't see foreign investors coming up.
You know it's interesting that the fireworks began yesterday and I have had a chance to talk about the -- with people in New York but there -- no doubt scuttlebutt all night long last night was about the Chinese premier and of course Wladimir who knows what they both said about the United States.
And how we sort of led.
Everybody the global world into this -- This this of the friction between China and the US -- -- -- hold two trillion.
-- US denominated assets.
What's that mean for the future if that friction -- sports.
-- in -- sense of money Alexis I'd been arguing that -- America is the key to the global economy and that's the symbiotic relationship between China.
And at the end of the book I -- on this relationship breakdown because it does we're in BBC this trouble.
And within the outlook of being installed Treasury Secretary I was -- to see Timothy Geithner accusing the tons of currency manipulation.
-- -- -- a slap in the face on the eve of of -- and double speech and not surprisingly.
He hit back.
Albeit a very Chinese way not explicitly naming the United States but everybody knew exactly what he meant.
Not act -- -- -- rich but let me peace and to do that -- -- Economics because.
I think -- got -- And about the US currency -- out there bashing you with Turkey why this is the main currency of the world didn't listen.
You don't exactly have a good situation up there.
There's a Ruble crisis going on which is an event that -- -- I think excellent.
So Lexus entries and I don't need.
But I think Lexus and the Chinese need to -- listened to very carefully indeed by the United States which is has -- -- for some time heavily reliant on foreign funding.
For its current account deficit and increasingly -- funding has been coming from the People's Bank of China.
That the Chinese decide to that game as of that there are no longer than some -- -- -- -- -- it -- -- right.
The Astros -- -- anyway because you have savings rate -- -- rise faster.
Is by printing money that is to say.
But the Fed is going to have to take these treacherous and it's gonna have to discard them against paper and that is what you get into the series it's in crisis of confidence in the what is the engine the -- But I can see the dollar sting at -- current high level of course it's already depreciated against one Asian currencies again quite significant.
And the question is just when does that becoming general run away from the -- right -- -- holding dollar assets was Florida's -- now -- government all of the varying maturities.
Is essentially return free risk but somebody with -- puts it nobody wants to sit in the -- for too long I think that the story of the coming months is going to be an exit from the US bond market and an exit from the don't.
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