Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
-- coauthor of one of those books this time is different co -- with.
-- golf by the way.
Maybe says this time is not different why we make the same mistakes over and over again happy to have.
A -- on the program thank you very much for joining us awesome book.
On my blog is gonna get you business.
But but but the -- book thank you.
Even though I didn't walk through the Congo writing and next time you gotta combine the two stories right this time it's not different.
And -- -- point and that that the name of the book is rather is men and iron right because you've gone back at 500 years.
And every time we are well this time it's different your date and your historical analysis very simply proves this time.
It's not different we make the same mistakes over and over again.
We have short memories yes.
We -- short balance sheets and that's goes with the memory.
I think them the irony of it is that those are very expensive.
Words that every time.
That the players change the country changes.
What they're selling changes.
But the underlying themes that this time we can and get get indebted.
It's not really a bubble when prices are going out.
And all is going to end well.
Are running themes that keep repeating themselves.
-- what about the aftermath of those bubbles bursting because I know that you look at it did the very real -- serious risk.
Of losing money.
On government debt either from default outright default or even -- higher inflation.
How real the risk is that for us today what can we learn from just even the last hundred years.
Well one of the things we noted.
Is that the aftermath.
Of financial crises.
Which we're living through -- associated with protracted recessions.
Which means apart from the huge bailouts apart from any stimulus.
Packages that government revenues suffer.
Greatly which means -- government piles on a lot of debt very quickly and we said that on average.
Debt increases by 86%.
Not 86% of GDP of 86% in nearly doubles in the three years after major financial crises.
And the US and other major economies such as the UK and Ireland.
Which also had crises of their own are well in route towards that.
What does that mean that living with high debt will.
The concerns are already being felt here and there downgrades.
Our real possibility even.
To -- America are -- you think America's credit rating could be downgraded.
-- -- -- about Japan S&P warning that there -- credit rating may get cut.
To -- let's not forget Japan lends to the rest of the world we borrow from the rest of the world.
No one is is.
A -- of a downgrade Japan was downgraded several times after its major financial crises en route to reiterate.
They have a very high debt level but they also lend to the rest of the world.
And end a long's side what are the concerns we have about high levels of debt.
Is that it historically.
Higher levels of debt are associated.
-- it's more sluggish.
Economic -- Carmen you know what we're we're gonna leave it there we do appreciate you coming on awesome book I think -- can drove -- really laid out why.
Each generation tends to make the same mistakes and and maybe we don't learn but Carmen Reinhart.
Co author of this time it's different at least one of the best books that I've read this your Carmen thank you very much for coming on -- a happy new year.
Thank you and happy new year.
Filter by section