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35 years joining us with his outlook on jobs and the economy -- -- -- chief economist for Moody's -- markets John this this.
This market is something to watch I mean you have people who are all -- adjusted.
That tether over the the Federal Reserve -- tapering and then they -- a jobs report like this and they act like at the end of the world.
This is in this is more than a wall of worry we're looking at here in this market -- Exactly I think you know -- regarding the credit market they have to wake up and -- -- That quantitative easing was not meant to last forever that it's high time the credit market recognize the lack -- nature of this economic recovery.
That was made evident with his latest jobs -- what.
And accept the fact that you don't have to have that support.
To keep the ten year treasury yield -- under 3%.
It makes no sense that indicate your trade real above 3%.
Like given the job creation has slowed so dramatically.
Well today that ten year the yield fell through two point 94%.
Coming off roughly 3%.
We were sitting here talking about six basis points like it's a change in the the direction of the rotation of planet -- in this system.
I mean -- -- crazy spot right now the way both the business press in particular and the market and the street her behavior arena.
Yes we are -- you know the reality is that.
Earnings are growing that's a good thing but you're -- so at a very slow pace of being one of the reasons why so few jobs are being created.
Is that since march of 2012.
Profits have grown by only three and a half percent.
For the S&P 500 by only 1%.
If we take out of financial companies little wonder you don't wanna do that it was gonna hire people who -- this type of growth.
Was so if there's going to be any support for the equity market it and -- financial markets in general.
It has to come in the warm up well below average interest rates.
If -- that as -- how to get how to how to read -- for the treasury bond yield was really quite limited.
I talked with a number of people as you know throughout the week here while most are looking for something approaching 4% right now -- play I didn't.
And the -- In the fact is it's not clear the path to.
-- more yields right now that is on the ten year ball low 3% though.
These people don't know about the commandments of the financial markets and what the can be exploited us thou shalt not towards.
The ten year treasury yield from the thirty year mortgage -- so you're talking about -- percent ten year treasury yield you're telling me that thirty year mortgage -- It's gonna shoot up to nearly 6% believe me how how does is it around to read.
Problems right now I don't know who's pushing the book or who's pushing the view.
But that is the concern I should -- concern here -- any forecast.
But they make it implicitly clear -- at certain of the so what is the -- going to do and how is it going to do it.
To prevent as it.
Stands pat to rescinding its behavior.
On bond purchases.
And and maintain -- The -- gonna make it clear to the financial markets that they cannot abide treasury bonds forever.
They're probably going to win now it's 88 marine.
Of quantitative easing at the September 18 FOMC meeting we'll start off -- a gradual manner and body here this summer of twenty -- key quantitative easing will be finished.
Here we watched the market at all an awful today because Putin's said that he would actually -- Syria.
If President Obama are goes ahead and attack Syria.
The market after listening and watching the face of President Obama today is our president we've been defeated in that objective.
Who had been rejected by the G-20 nations and the market moved up 140 point then -- -- -- say.
-- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- -- What do people think that you just simply bomb -- -- -- -- And that there isn't a reaction a -- retaliation for Iran from Russia from.
Or whomever it may be is this administration.
And I'm getting to the point here slowly and I'm -- -- bit.
But the point is this in the context of all of this we have an administration who ought to be scaring the Dickens out of this market because apparently they don't think about retaliation if -- -- that -- country.
There's a lot of confusion on this front you know in the -- doesn't like it -- the price the price of crude oil 110 dollar per barrel today if that it's 120.
Markets are going to move ball lower.
In in a very frightening fashion so that something you want to pay attention to and this is one of the cost of of involvement in Syria.
And your outlook for the rest of the year we can control -- this administration and events markets and fed.
This will remain the limp -- economic recovery since the Second World War.
I think in all likelihood will be lucky if the equity market moves sideways nevertheless perhaps will be lucky all in the in this sense that we may make real progress.
Lowering the unemployment rate that is we will lower the unemployment rate.
Not because more people are trying you actually -- -- you are actually -- -- jobs bullets don't hold your breath I won't hold my breath but I will praise for everybody because this country.
Are our destiny depends on come on Steve thanks for being here -- --
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