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Markets as Jonathan cast all of them and director of financial research for and giant risk management.
John great to have you here but it the market moves -- today but three days of gains that's kind of impressive given -- via.
All of the gloom and doom -- been forecast right so many knowledgeable people write what we had a pretty tough August if you look at.
The August by Sachs and S&P 500 it was the worst month in fourteen months down 3%.
Largely because of 1 -- topics -- evening Syria so I think Syria's largely discounted into the market but now with the economic trajectory of the US economy still improving.
A very good -- GDP revision up to two and a half percent growth from one point 7% and the continued improvement in jobless claims today.
Are continuing to accelerate.
And improving right here every year or so and of course overhanging all of this is the unemployment rate tomorrow -- conference in the way of job creation you know as.
Best and the bureau of statistics that measure it right -- you expect them to say.
Well I mean I don't think is important as weekly jobless claims weekly jobless claims has been a more important variable for the market we saw that today and a very good number so for tomorrow I think it's as long as it's not an embarrassingly low number like 125000 jobs that would really sort of not the market down a bit but I think consensus is a 180000 jobs and somewhere in between is probably the right number 150 to one -- sort of still got considered expectations for good growth good for stocks and bad for bonds in the us.
And considered expectations for tapering in September.
Tapering in September means lots of good news so they better get that number I think will be difficult for even this.
We're fed off the -- committee.
Two raise rates if they see a disappointing numbered archer.
Well I think the most destructive -- -- Fed to do at this point is not taper in September and the markets have already started to taper themselves you've seen big emerging market outflows.
-- seen a an asset allocation shift from fixed income and equities so the market is is sort of been pricing this and for for quite some time now since -- Earnings.
Housing our cars are sixteen.
We're getting to an annualized rate of sixteen million.
In my vehicles I mean that's pretty impressive stop.
What about housing what about the market.
Expect that expectations -- -- -- -- -- I think the of the -- your report was one of the most important economic variables again but it revised up to two and a half percent growth from one point 7% growth.
And if you think about the markets really been -- swimming against sequestration for most of the year that GDP number could have been -- 3% number quite easily which is good old fashioned bull market stuff.
Very good for equities and still continued challenges for bonds enough environment and what about that 3% -- The recent tenure -- things going a lot higher if you think about what the the -- -- level was before three rounds of quantitative easing was actually a 4%.
Sweeping the next move quickly could be a 4% -- on on the US and impact on housing impact on cars and -- on the consumer.
You know I think -- sounds ugly if it does but at this the biggest tax on on the US economy is in attacks on savers that's that they go fast and but Americans a balanced budgets have not had a savings rate.
So you think about there's obviously puts and takes some of the leverage parts of the economy would definitely be had but if you think about -- -- baby boomers which needs saving or savings rates.
And you know rates on on good old -- -- side of the market that would be a good thing right John thanks much for you what appreciate.
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