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Retailers are kicking off back to the school promotions early this year rolling -- all kinds of bargains during one of the biggest shopping seasons of the year but will those discounts be enough to boost back to school spending -- or will the season be a bust either way there's a way to play it for your portfolio we've got Wall Street's number one retail analyst with the top retailers to -- on the season.
Joining me now -- -- Friedman she's what bush securities equity research VP.
Great to have you here.
Parents are going to be spending -- that's what everybody says we can put what they're going to spend because there was a survey done just a little over 600 dollars per kid.
-- for back to school season but that doesn't mean people can't invest appropriately because people still have to -- paper pens and notebooks correct right.
What kind of season are you expecting while it's true that.
There are a lot more pressure sister on the consumer and in Iran last year.
The -- tax certainly took a bite out of everyone's paycheck to the tune of about fifty dollars for paychecks of that word and expect that to take and let's pull on back to school shopping.
Gas prices are -- bothered down a little bit they're still up -- every year so that matters I'm and the tax -- holidays are pretty similar to last year.
And while we do see and increasing consumer confidence you know there are some you know remaining -- such as unemployment.
Teen unemployment -- means that one of the top time pies to where we're pretty concerned there now fifteen states are offering tax breaks for back to school shopping this season.
Do the tax breaks themselves -- that kind of spending.
It's a very marginal and it's only on certain -- -- over an apparent mistakes how -- it is very -- and on -- you know and usually at this -- attacks against him for 34% yeah yeah -- -- I don't ask -- erupted -- a long time -- I had actually made a difference -- just psychologically would like to -- out -- get out there and spent some -- OK I want to get to the -- you think are poised to really beat that place -- parents say OK I will spend the money whatever -- -- to -- a -- here we'll certainly Wal-Mart is always the number -- play for back to school the broadest -- in the in the in that part in them in the sector.
You know they have every day low pricing and they're really going after that value -- customers hyper focused on value their hyper focus on value and we continue to think that that's the play.
For a broad around the time back to school shopping do you see revenue bumpy and wal mart's numbers is it that meaningful or is it.
Around to hear it it represents about my by the 30% and I knew there was -- sodas have been it's a big chunk okay Wal-Mart.
Still a lot of staples what's your next -- Nike we also look Nike.
You know at this early on this summer in the spring.
LeBron issues were the hottest thing that the kids wanted a 180 to 230 dollars we continue and there was a little bit a pullback we think that's in anticipation of a bigger fall.
Her basketball -- -- but no no notebooks that Nike so you're saying for back to school shoes and clothing I was just at Nike town.
On 57 yesterday big crowds before 549.
Dollar Nike feel bands I was completely talked into it upon my nine year old I know he does but regardless.
The crowds -- there.
I cannot not hearing you say a staples or an Office Depot which -- office Max.
Are they not want to be doing well in the sounds fair I mean there's there's a deflationary pressures you know 88 -- notebooks you can get at Wal-Mart and dollar as you know some other retailers at dollar stores about target.
Target is -- is targeting an older customer this year that the -- at the college customer.
I'm they have increased their -- meant by to an excuse this year vs last year.
Well it's interesting that you brought up -- it's not I wasn't thinking clothing but you're absolutely right to bring up something that can really get that -- as parents look for things lately it.
My daughter -- elevenths keeps bringing up this Brandi -- bill brandy -- -- -- my niece Alley on the West Coast.
All operating health bill it's not publicly traded here -- website by the way you could be eighteen to Wear these clothes because I went to the -- and it says.
Both sizes fit most OK forget -- they don't it's one size fits -- but.
What is there ever stopped -- on us there is -- Pacific sun Wear on their right to distribute those products in the mall so you can get that assortment.
Very limited at Pacific -- stores in the law it's fascinating to see the names that come -- by the way at brandy milk publicity everything's been made in Italy so this isn't just churning it out from Chinese factory -- personally -- and I like how I I fit into one tiny -- -- affect our overall what retailers do expect to suffer during the spectacles he continues to pressure in the -- department stores I -- and they're getting squeezed out from the top and with the higher the better -- or other stores and also the customers were focused on value and they can't really compete with the Wal-Mart or anyone else so we're nervous about it.
How back to school plays radicals.
It's JC -- still lost cause when it comes to another -- that official -- You know they're unwinding some of -- strategy that Ron Johnson put into place so it remains to be seen whether or not they can pull it off this.
The -- -- good to see you thank you Corina.
She's -- number a lot of it.
Retail analysts that I Marian no about -- -- -- it's not scare is over what bush during a thank you think yeah great to have you David we'll submit to.
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