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I mean if we knew that this morning we -- made a lot of money we don't you sometimes wish you had a crystal ball to predict the market's behavior remember result far from the 1988.
Movie big with Tom Hanks.
What we have our own results are for you today named forecaster of the month nine times by MarketWatch three times in the last four months alone beating out.
Goldman Sachs every time.
No less let's bring a missile parts speaks everybody Brian -- its -- around.
Economists it's a Fox Business exclusive.
I'm I'm fascinated by this because you -- hitting these numbers out of the ballpark every single time.
To what do you attribute that.
I think -- and I've always taken a very consistent approach and I use mathematical models.
To forecast indicators that matter person's emotional well I think the problem is is that if you use emotional indicators used finger in the air technique.
The problem with that is that even if you're right you don't know quite why.
Worst of the approach that we've taken and that I take a few years is that it's it's it's rigorous and I can go back and you're aware of where why I was right he won I was wrong.
-- -- on the screen here the assert these are the ones of many that you've smacked out of the ballpark.
A lot of times the forecasts were way more bearish than expected in and you're in essence saying that the so called end of the world that has been a losing that's why I think.
What happens is that once an economy starts to move one direction -- the other people they can't get away from catching the turner changing their minds about things what happens is a view.
-- -- like a beloved family member comfortable suit of clothing and people are unwilling to shut it.
Mean how many people -- out there that actually had a good cool.
During the financial crisis and they get to say anything good about the economy and the key now is when this thing turns around and if you notice and most of the indicators we've -- I've been at the more optimistic and I'm getting beat to the high side consistently.
Look how he put it that that you're you're getting too close to family member put grandma out of the ice flow kick it off out there and -- Alaska and get the real story or it's time to you know that were you really look at -- look at the -- market look at the confidence figures.
He'll consider whether or not there really has been much of an impact from that -- the fiscal policy situation.
I mean nonsense is the with through -- do with with the the toughest period this year.
The growth is gonna accelerate the second half of the year.
So -- -- to a pace of about three and a half for a three and a quarter percent OK so that's here.
Expectation for GDP second half wore them 3% I have not heard that in a lot of consensus and that happens at the same time you're gonna get a -- reduction -- unemployment rate.
Which we think we'll probably hit 7% -- beginning of next year I am.
Little tired of the negativity that's out there because.
You can be very angry at what the Fed is doing you can be annoyed at the administration but.
If you're fighting it the fact is -- worth losing money now let's get to some your best recent calls.
You -- -- out of the ballpark from the June jobs report consumer spending you did very well retail sales what can you tell us that's coming up results are wrong.
I think the next big report for the markets is going to be Monday's retail sales report.
And there again I think the numbers are gonna come and better than the consensus by probably about a half a percentage point on both Federline and ex auto sales.
Are right now we've got -- until -- one point 2% and ex -- -- point 9%.
Which -- by the -- the expectation for ex autos for the consensus I think it's for cats and forthright yup that's what -- -- below that.
But I mean it's -- it's based on data in hand we had very strong automobile sales.
Part of it is a nominal increase because of hard gasoline prices should probably be good pick of the building material sales for the housing industries -- -- And the chain store numbers that were reported today were actually better than expected as well when you get your -- I've done for a long time I think a lot of it has to do -- really knowing you waited around the US statistical information in the data.
And I -- believe the data.
What we are helicopter crowd well I don't enjoy life I mean -- our fruit of I've been around for a long time right to talk to the people who statistically agencies through honest -- go to statisticians and most of us.
That actually do the job on the street -- -- other way around things and I think you know this whole conspiracy theory it's just it's structural.
-- -- number the smoke for example in this morning's jobless claims number which which surprised it was hotter than expected meaning jobless claims more people are our file employment -- I mean it was basically in line with what we're expecting -- -- -- we have that a bomb had this morning and the thing is that when you get to the beginning of -- new calendar quarter.
There's a tendency for claims to bounce when you go to the beginning of this of these students -- You can get ships in the timing of the ending square -- bouncing around I think the guys -- looking for a lower number.
We're looking at you automotive industry and saying well okay he did that they're not gonna have the typical summer closures this year.
So -- would not gonna give the number -- production still it was down as usual in the first month of first week of July so.
I want our viewers to it to leave.
With two things from -- number one that in the short term.
Retail sales are quite a surprise to the upside be better than expected that's Monday and in the longer term second half GDP is going to be better than most people -- three and a quarter percent I think to be -- you know as much as -- people -- about believe market.
We pretty much consistently.
And posting 200000 job gains over the last twelve has anybody ever compared -- -- -- still -- from the movie -- Mel I've been called other things -- -- children on one but they're -- that.
Brian it is a lovely to have you in a box business explicit that there is.
We'll superimpose your face on it next time the -- and I courtesy.
Thank you congratulations Brian Jones he's the guy over at Societe Generale senior US economist getting it right.
Almost always --
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