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Well it sees him -- because we have to move on to the economy now they FOMC minutes from the policy meeting in -- will be out this afternoon followed by big speech.
From -- Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke.
So all of this comes as investors remain fearful of the Fed's quote unquote tapering.
So fear we're gonna focus on fear it's something our next guest is concerned about from Baltimore real Kelly joins us managing director.
Attack kind of funny to talk about fear the market running up to as much as it as it had a note to bent down a few points today but you're concerned that we're still.
Fearful of another crisis tells about.
I think we have crisis site it's in this in this country and -- and investors in general.
And I and then you've got to -- a little bit of that over the last couple months when gold went down 10% one day and has continued to decline as soon as we heard.
Perhaps -- won't be another financial crisis as your started to recover you got to see and Japan.
When the central Bank of Japan took a step back away from some of the more aggressive behavior that was down 8% one day and has since 120% decline so how does that there's any question that they're still fear in this market -- Not apply to something like.
-- the things we'll see today so the Fed will come out the minutes we'll see what they were talking about Ben Bernanke will speak and all of this kind of collectively will try to interpret.
What does he mean what is he trying to say should -- to use your term be fearful of something that's going on US how do you.
You kind of a level head going into this a different view than some other people do.
You always have a level -- when it comes to investing be prudent be disciplined Ben Bernanke gets on the stand to speak.
And the country and all investors collectively take a deep breath and hold it until he says.
Tapering war continued.
And then we all react very dramatically in the short run but the reality is investors need to focus on the long.
Okay and in the long run what we know is that the Fed is still in crisis mode we have 0% interest rates.
We're still buying 85 billion a month and bonds.
The balance sheet has gone from 500 billion to three and a half trillion that's crisis mode and yet we're being told that the economy is recovering so giving uses the.
This at a record two in terms of investing in that environment from your point of view which it sounds like his is a longer term point given maybe some the other -- we have on you say.
All right for -- the negative on the bond market for some time we've been having you on.
-- like it does does this continued in what's what's the outlook given the set up that.
-- just give us.
Well I think you have to be extraordinarily constant.
Cautious and bonds the the fact that the ten year treasury has just gone to a positive greater return a real return which is to slightly above inflation.
Does not give us enough return to justify the risk of further interest rate movements I think the Fed is inevitably gonna have to push rates higher.
And that's gonna have a very negative impact on the ten year long term focus I think for stocks long term valuations are okay.
If you look forward you ask the simple question.
-- I think these businesses are going to be worth more five to ten years we think the answers yes however this is the key point.
Be prudent be disciplined right now.
You have plan you have a strategy of an asset allocation don't let those equities runaway.
Prune your your -- in the bushes bring back your equity allocations make sure you're staying disciplined and a market like this to discussion there ahead of Bernanke -- Anyway from the distractions -- Kelly always get to talk to thanks for coming out.
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