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To today's action it's amazing again that the market is doing so well considering so much bad news across the globe we have Michael -- he has gradient investments senior portfolio manager.
They'll tell us why he doesn't see any tapering of the Fed's buying bond buying program this year and Gary ran.
Tell us capital partners founder and chairman will tell us why it is time.
Stay away from commodities to guys -- different views -- -- markets Michael let's go to you first.
You say try to get used to these ups and downs in the -- we have the Dow now.
Just about 151000 you think it's gonna stay in that trading range for the next couple of months right.
I really do I think we've had an awful strong start to the year.
I think for the next few months we're gonna digest this is -- reports -- to its problems as the economy and the economic data kind of flows through which I think it's mostly positive.
But as we look out towards the back after this year and we look in the next year.
Let's talk about if we could put do a 120 dollars worth of earnings on the S&P 500.
Which by the way is -- a lot of consensus numbers you put a fifteen multiple on that you're talking 18100 on the S&P.
You put a sixteen multiple on that.
And now you're talking 19100 on the S&P 500 I'm very constructive I think the economy is stable I think corporate earnings -- on fire.
I think we can work -- -- hires this year or next year progresses.
Gary was that a sigh I heard from you when you heard 19100 -- -- and I -- you a believer in in such a bullish outlook.
Well I think firm here are not that polish I mean I think stocks move higher from here simply as a -- resulted everything else doesn't look so attractive especially to bond market -- -- you know just them talking about it -- previous weeks but.
I think America might be you know flat top 7% I think from here would be would be good year.
A good year but for argue piling into equities at this point or their other asset classes you believe are real opportunity right now.
Now I know I think stocks look unattractive vis a -- everything else I mean we like -- as well those have pulled back a little bit here in this recent sell off and I like the distribution in the growth through dividends and air but -- stocks us -- -- attractive and you know I think if you see.
Gains this year in the mid to upper teens -- that's a pretty successful year and then we'll take -- Hey Michael I wanna I wanna get to -- stock picks which by the way includes apple and I'm interest in knowing about that.
But -- that we see here on the screen we're looking at the Egyptian protests.
Obviously that's had an effect on the price of oil which is well over a hundred now 101 dollars.
I'm just wondering if things really spin out of control and there's a possibility they -- we're gonna discuss that later in the hour with some experts as we focus on this a little more what happens and -- that not bring the market down Michael.
Well there's nothing to dampen consumer confidence which is very high right now.
Then out of control energy costs so -- the price of gasoline shoots over four again which could happen if say the Suez Canal is blocked I heard your guests previously he doesn't think that's gonna happen.
I'm in agreement with them I think the oil will continue to flow through there -- -- -- the prices energy will be capped.
So I like consumer -- their confidence.
There are spending and their -- -- but I.
I have to bush -- Michael because I guess probably the caveat I said if in fact.
The situation -- spins out of control and the price of oil continues to go up might that not.
Unhinged the market.
Well we need to define what out of -- means let's say oil goes up to a 120 yes I think that will -- the market.
I think that would keep a roof over market prices right now.
I don't think that's gonna happen but if it does happen.
It is a concern were watching it very closely.
Okay let me get to -- because scary you specifically are saying that people and investors are not paying attention to things they should.
Be watching such chest there and throw that out there we want to -- -- I think some of the events are talking out there's always things that can go wrong and the out.
As people get -- I guess -- -- -- to put -- in the back of their minds you know and it just makes sense to be cautious about the environment.
And just be aware that there -- things -- go wrong.
The the reaction to Bernanke's comments the other day I think are an example that you know.
That touch of bad news -- quickly you know some investors to the sidelines.
And -- investor should -- remember that when they allocate money to investments that they need patience and conviction especially.
All right let its focus into some stock picks particularly -- -- -- I've I've mentioned -- you're into apple right now.
Why and how far do you think you could go.
Well I think Apple Stock has really found a bottom lately.
I think their year end is in September I think next year we're gonna start to see earnings growth.
An apple which we didn't see this year next year I think we're gonna see a slate of new products including a new wife had.
And I watch.
And something in the ITV arena.
I think that product development I think earnings growth I think that will get people excited bought apple again.
I'm confident on the consumer apple is an ultimate consumer type a stock.
I think the stock does well well you know what we just have pap Dorsey sentinel capital in the last hour agreeing and he's a Smart guy I I just worry that.
That you start to look at all of the other options out there at the value phones that are less.
Expensive certainly a lot of European markets and a lot of developing markets are using nose in it up I guess some -- Popular way it -- are you worried about that.
I do worry about that but -- I think apple is the number one I thought is a number one phone in the market right now.
I think it's a one that consumers aspire to get and I think they'll take place in the international markets as the international emerging markets become.
Wealthier overtime I think more more people there will want to put away their budget phones and aspire to move in new higher end phones like the -- Hey Gary let's talk about television for second because all these folks are getting into the contents now content building Netflix has been doing a lot of people getting into it.
You go 441 of the one of the folks it's been in cables since practically the beginning AMC networks.
They have IFC television they also Sundance film channel why do you like him so much.
Well I think for her just exit -- -- what you just mentioned so AMC owns both.
Cable channels like the ones you mentioned and -- -- -- -- AMC channel.
And then their content providers and see is the creator of mad men.
Breaking bad the Walking Dead and have a slate of new shows so as -- library grows of contents.
They get greater distribution.
And their channels we liked the story it at AMC networks for the long term.
Another -- stock but having nothing to do with entertainment is Allard gap that's another one of your picks as well -- what do you like about it.
Why Allergan has pulled back here recently on concern about generic competition for a spaces.
They're an important drug for them and I treatment but I think that prices attractive and it and specialty pharmaceutical companies I think -- attractive for the long term.
Health care has been one of the best if not the best performing sector of the market the first half of the year we like it for the rest of the year folks use him was in my earpiece.
OK let let me just go to Michael first because that's sorry about that that's all right I just wanna go back to Michael for second because another one of his picks besides apple was JPMorgan.
It is an -- financials got a risky based on where how far they've already come.
No I disagree I think that financials are not that risky right now and in fact.
A little bit higher interest rates structure actually helps a net interest margins -- bank so I think.
Banks have a lot of excess reserves I think they can the land those out I think they can earn greater return with -- higher rates on those reserves.
I think there's a lot of earnings power built up and our banks I think volatile markets a little bit help their trading environments and their trading desk.
So you know I think the earnings power is under rated now JPMorgan and if you can put this CEO issue the chairman issue in the London whale issue behind them.
I think you have the leading financial institution in the world right now and -- its undervalued.
Okay Michael Boehner and Gary Brown thank you so much an apple lovely holiday tomorrow thanks Joseph.
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