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Well Vasquez says that when it comes on the markets the Fed -- -- -- -- it really matches James Bianco is actually search president.
JR James thanks so much for joining us I mean really is that what -- -- the first day of the third quarter as the first day of July markets surging again.
-- you say really it all depends on the -- so where do we go from here what's the end game with the -- I think it does not depend on the Fed.
I would -- little bit about you -- the market surging this is the sixteenth day in the last thirty that the Dow is either moved up or down -- hundred points.
That's what it does it'll probably have another hundred point move tomorrow and we'll see which way it goes as well but it's all about the Fed in its all about the market trying to figure out.
If the Fed is going to do what has been referred to as the taper or not do the -- now it appears fed officials want to do it.
And I've argued that they do want to do it.
That they're actually not data dependent anymore like they said there on -- calendar they want to stop QE they wanna stop QE is quickly if they can.
And when the market got freaked out about the idea -- QE was going to be pulled back.
They came out last week and said -- no no but we're not gonna raise rates we're not gonna sell securities.
But that's not what's bothering the market was bothering the market is they're gonna reduce their purchases and the Fed seems intent on doing that before the end of the year.
Yet as the Fed does this James -- Jim I should say look -- they also downgraded all revised lower a lot of the economic projections so it's not a slow.
You know -- getting the sense of the economy could really stand on its own two -- it may be able to -- isn't exactly going gangbusters is that.
Right and I think that that's the key thing about it the market -- lost the Fed downgraded its assessment of the economy.
On both inflation and GDP remembered as a data dependent -- -- downgraded the economy.
That should mean -- data -- fed would argue more QE not that we're gonna ended September not ever gonna end over the next few meetings.
In the market kind of scratched his -- and said why they're talking about -- if they're downgrading the economy.
In the end they came to its biggest one out and if they want out that's why do you think you've seen in interest rates or the stock -- stumble -- take a big hit commodities take a big hit.
As you know all the way don't develop markets emerging markets he could see the liquidity that the Fed and other central banks and one of these single -- them.
But this bit they've provided to markets and when they threaten to pull it back how much chaos that created a market -- the last couple.
Weeks -- being so volatile I would imagine you know that choppy seas ahead -- is pretty much the norm now until this gets smoothed out.
Assad has the best I have a -- play this right now I mean look at the bond market that what does it mean for the -- market.
Well you know I think the -- earnest if you're about investor I've always given the advice that no one wants to hear you have to time the market out now don't tell me the time the market.
But you have to time the market around the -- because.
What is the Fed going to do if the numbers come in.
Worst and expect that if the economic numbers and the -- backs off of their talk about.
Pulling back on their purchases before the end of the year we can have a nice rally in bonds begin recovering the stock market.
If the Fed is insisted.
On ending this policy by the end of the year or at least beginning the end of the policy but he ended the year.
What that what we've seen the last couple weeks will continue for several more months so tell me what the Fed's gonna do and then tell me what the -- I'll -- -- -- the market's gonna do now that said.
I'll bet the -- is insisted -- pulling back and we're gonna see more turbulent seas ahead.
And all the markets are affected by so there's really only one trade in the market are you long defender short the -- Whether you're bonds stocks gold commodities of -- -- develop markets they all kind of go up and down the same because of this whole fed liquidity things.
Well we do have they -- -- season right around the corner we're getting so much negative guidance I think 80% of the S&P 500.
Companies putting out negative guidance is that just sandbagging the market so they can surprise when they actually bring out the results.
That there's definitely some of that going on because usually 70% of companies -- beat expectations.
And there in the -- period now where they guided down so that they can doubt beaded.
But nevertheless it also is that earnings if you look at non financial -- pick up the banks and the S&P 500 we're expecting no earnings growth negative.
If you've added the banks were expecting 2% -- to present positive earnings growth.
That you get a little better when we get that 70% approval 70% -- rate.
But the fact of the matter is if the market wouldn't trade purely -- fundamentals what you take the fat out we saw that over the last two weeks ago straight down.
Because the market is too high relative to the fundamental.
What keeps it at these levels is the hope that the Fed will stay in the game so the weak earnings numbers are -- some.
Because it's not there to justify current levels in the market.
Interest -- -- the -- now hitting -- behind.
And then get back at -- Thank you so much and especially your thoughts on the Fred thank you so much we appreciate and I just thought about fifty points from.
Jim -- little big stick obviously but he's right I mean yes.
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