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Out to the markets have -- talked to the top about this big rally we see today it was a volatile month.
Last month but a very good first half of the year the best in fact we've seen since the late nineties so Phil Orlando joins -- chief market.
Or equity strategist at a Federated Investors always good to see Phil thanks very much for having -- they're coming -- it's like -- up to -- it's good economic data this although it's a holiday shortened week I think it's a very important.
Week wrapped up with the jobs report on Friday you've been relatively optimistic -- -- today and and sometimes it's easy when the market is up but it as a set has been volatile.
Why buy stocks now.
What's the case that the case by and large is that the second half of the year from an economic standpoint is -- -- be much better in the first half of the year why.
You look at the last three quarters of economic role they've been extraordinarily sub trend including the quarter that we just finished.
We think that's largely because of the negative effects from the fiscal cliff policies the increase in taxes the sequester Sadr.
As we get into the second half of the year.
We think those Washington militia related issues are -- we think that what's taking place right now is more of -- wealth effect.
The increase in stock prices.
The increase in real estate prices are starting to filter through into the minds of investors people feel better about -- so therefore we do look -- a three quarters of his own homes more than half of -- own stocks through war retirement programs -- college savings programs whatever.
With stock price is real steep prices up.
That is starting to fuel better consumer confidence we think is gonna drive stronger GDP in the back after -- -- the last.
Weeks who went through a very kind of frustrating but -- period in which we were all day to day trying to interpret some sort of fed speak for some fed official come out and -- -- -- say well what he means is rates are gonna go up but next time or.
They're gonna stop tapering and why time and we're all trying to put words in people's -- which is obviously very difficult.
To do a noticing your answer the first question you've been glued to the Federal Reserve and all she's just taking that out of the equation focusing on the economy while.
I think the Federal Reserve gave us is that this miscommunication related to the Federer sure gave us 5%.
Correction that that from our perspective -- a gift doesn't think what we added -- equity exposure two weeks ago when this whole thing fell on in our view that the source of the miscommunication.
Is the fact the Federal Reserve when you strip away everything right is is making a decision that is data dependent unless the economy is would ready to grow at trend line or better.
3% economic role with.
With sizable jobs 2125300000.
A month sustainably.
The Fed is gonna keep the accommodation in place which he did talk about it improving economy well you're right about that than they have to take some of -- -- exactly but but that's a good thing if the Federal Reserve at some point later this year September December.
First quarter of next year says you know what the economy is growing strong enough.
We we we we are ready to pull the accommodation the equity market should rip on that because -- the first time in five years the Fed is ready normalized -- quick -- -- -- wrap it up you say rip on that the year end target how much more in the market I think we -- stocks can go another ten or 12% 1750 on the S&P by the end of the year aren't Phil Orlando good to see -- thanks for starting us off this week thank you very much and --
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