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Turning to a different area of politics now -- them and money.
The real cost of immigration reform some good news for supporters of -- senate's immigration bill the Congressional Budget Office estimates.
That it would cut the deficit grow the economy increased jobs but isn't all good news here -- that number is -- numbers -- -- -- -- -- -- -- Welcome back to show thank you so much for coming on.
-- I was that my exact number here is -- -- says that the immigration bill.
Billion dollars over ten years.
I was fascinated by that precise number he -- -- -- into that I mean where does that come for a 197.
Billion over ten years.
I think -- and the basic architecture is pretty simple bomb it is true that if you expand legal immigration the United States there will be more federal cost them.
The CBO put that estimate about 250 billion dollars.
It's also true though.
That having a larger labor force bringing the skills in that.
The bill intends to bring in.
Enhances economic growth and the CBO expects the economy to be about three and a half percentage -- bigger and that translates into.
More taxable and comment about 450 billion dollars in revenue so OK we're -- -- fifty billion in 250 out.
Deficits down by about 200 billion dollars.
So there are couple pieces in there that you just -- and I -- you hear people in the audience yelling at the television it'll disagree with number one up.
Let's yelled back yes that's right number one is bringing in skilled workers.
You know folks on the other side always make the argument that the workers that are coming in as a result.
New immigration would not necessarily being very -- so the productivity part of that.
Is that correct how do you respond.
The CBO estimates that -- they increased in immigration will raise productivity so you have -- estimate but.
I think the important thing to recognize that the US has never had.
And immigration policy built on economic objectives it's it's look at family reunification political asylum refugee status.
And in this legislation the CBO estimates that half of the increase in population.
We'll be for employment or merit based immigration that's a sea change in the way we think about who we bring in we're thinking about as an economic issue.
That's what I -- benefits out of this that I might not because -- don't pass and you are fantastic but but answer the direct question if they aren't skilled workers does it change but they are.
But they are I -- so I think we're going to get if you look again inside numbers.
A big chunk of the immigration is high skilled think -- -- think -- -- high tech industries.
Stapling a green cards to people -- Ph.D.s.
-- -- has been very interested in this part of the legislation.
It is also true.
There's strategy other satisfaction do you think that Sagan and what percentage do you think that is of people -- -- new immigration audiences yelling but that's a very small percentage of the folks -- -- that they can think of that as something that's thirty to 40% think of the low skill as you know thirty to 40% and the smallest part is actually the part in the middle that's that's the part that's the least represented in the bill.
Ten million people coming in that would increase -- population that's significantly.
Does that mean as more people come into the country.
They would be using a lot more services about the cost but they would be paying more taxes as well I always wonder how that nets out.
Is that -- -- positive or net negative in terms of cost if you stack it you stacked up.
How much more cost -- would be in terms of services.
You know it would be you know Social Security everything else of people coming to get food stamps anything.
Verse is how much tax is being paid because now these folks are legal so they're draping income tax how does that numbered about.
Then that is positive that's the 200 billion dollar reduction in deficits over ten years but.
I think that's a narrow way to think about this I'd hate to evaluate.
Some units that are bad for America by how well the government does that mean this is an issue of what should consumers know it's it's the only item I would speak I disagree or yeah without question it's -- much bigger discussion.
But we are just looking at the economic benefit in the right regular segment but I totally appreciate the idea that it it it's more than any other economic -- shows call me.
Yeah I guess not but the other money pieces the private sector money and so.
An economy that's bigger about a thousand dollars for every man woman and child in America that's important -- it's not just the government side.
Still what -- that ten million workers coming in would be displays current workers this is -- -- I got my list here all the questions and get on Twitter and everywhere else I don't wanna miss them.
Are we displacing current workers you have ten million people coming into the country hungry eager to work and have jobs it seems like.
They are going to take rather than being ten million more workers that have ten million new jobs we don't really have those jobs open right now aren't they going to displace current workers.
Remember that we grow all the time -- we have 310 million Americans in large part because.
People have babies they grew -- in the -- jobs in the American economy has shown a tremendous capacity to absorb.
Both natural -- immigrants that's throughout history -- same thing what happened here.
I think important caught me at the moment that's a genuine concern is we do have a bad economy it's seven point 6% unemployment double digit was some real measures.
Now this would take a long while to get geared up and I should hope.
That if you and I are having this conversation about money five years now we're not talking about an economy that's that's sitting at seven point 6% on our way -- we we need to -- -- what it through immigration with the least of our problems you know we need we need to evaluate this this approach though from the perspective -- you know fixing the short -- problem and asking how we want them manager immigration.
One more math question -- -- -- ducks I love your -- brain.
-- quit when we are looking at.
Interest rates because of the CBO projects that interest rates would rise to of the interesting -- that came out of -- we're -- the average wage following.
And that was a little bit misleading because it makes people think that there wages are going -- actually hire more workers coming in who might be working for a lower wage.
-- in your wage may not go down but mathematically the average would lower.
But I was interested in the interest rate -- the CBO projects that interest rates would rise.
Again this is oddball compared to status quo don't do any -- so.
Even the wages would rise that they're just worrying about how fast they arise with the big insight that CBS pointing out is.
It takes workers to produce stuff but also -- capital you need factories you need equipment you need ideas you need.
All of the things that financial capital.
Allows corporations to acquire.
And if we get more workers we run into a little bit of a capital shortage -- when capital short people have to pay Irish raced to get it and that's all it's going on.
-- Douglas told -- eight -- I always say that -- and I apologize to you I'd love having on a strike up the combatants.
It's pleasure to be here let's do math again OK perfect.
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