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Right -- economy now are due for another recession.
Just -- we need.
-- just issuing a report saying that there is a 60% chance -- a global recession in the next three to five years that's scary prediction.
And the World Bank is forecasting slower growth even slower global economic growth.
So how much trouble is right around the corner joining me now -- First time advisors chief economist -- sense and a stove all SB capital IQ chief equity strategist gentlemen thanks to both of you for being with us.
Brian I think easier grim economic forecasts.
-- -- you know Melissa it's great to be with you and and with Sam and you know.
-- day anybody can make a forecast about anything android it's always potential in the economy that bad things happen but it.
I just I remind people that over the last four years everybody has been waiting for a 20082009.
-- come back.
And I just think the odds of that are we're really -- to have a true global recession.
It's almost like everything has to be synchronized and right now when you look around the world -- not synchronized at all.
I think they did the previous recession before -- -- on nine that really took the whole world down.
Was back in the early 1980s.
The late 1970s.
This is a thirty year apart experience so I ask -- -- our guys when you're not IRA less than 60% when I I'm not buying it now.
That's you being sure than usual I'm surprised -- none have CM.
What do you think about all that.
Well I guess my first thought is when somebody says there's a 60% chance of something.
That's almost a pretty good run on them on -- flipping.
So you can guess -- -- -- -- a while.
But also when you think back to 19100.
The US economy has lasted only 44 months on average so were already four months beyond that since World War II.
The average age of an an expansion before it falls into recession.
Is 57 months only about nine months to go from there so when somebody says that we could have trouble three -- six years from now.
My thought is -- OK tell me something I don't know.
Yet still I -- Bryant in the World Bank predicting -- I you know we're gonna see 2% growth I mean that's that's seems both horrible and optimistic.
You know 2% at this point is to meet feels like more than we can hope for and it's a terrible number that's not gonna help very much maybe that's why we -- Nikkei.
You know plunge about six and a half percent overnight.
Yeah I mean it it may be -- that -- I mean the Japanese are throwing you know noodles at the wall to see what sticks.
And -- and I think the run up in their stock market was a lot over done.
Eighty you know 2% is about what Europe has experience for the past four decades so that's nothing new either and just to go right back to what Sam has just said you know Tommy something I don't know.
All of dresses priced into the market everything whether it's the worst predictions are the best prediction it's all priced into the market.
And and what that tells me is that were more likely to have an upside surprise I think you'll -- rather than a downside.
I don't know about that Sam do you agree with that I mean -- -- and it's all priced into the market I think there is Ben Bernanke is what's priced into the market and I don't know the market is really.
Thinking about the fact that we have this kind of slow growth out there.
I was gonna say Melissa can't you hear me not my head yes I do think that if there is a surprise it probably would be to the upside not the downside let's face it going back to two -- beginning of this.
Bruce this economic expansion in June of 2009.
It at best has been described as they have speed recovery.
Where we typically have only been reaching about half of what we normally see in.
Each of the four years of -- him since world war you're upside surprises in economic growth or enhance its stock appreciation.
I think what is going to lead to the other because now we're going through what I call -- A painful metamorphosis or like -- -- Qaeda is shedding their skin we're going from a liquidity lead.
Bull market to -- fundamentally driven one.
And we're gonna need the economic and earnings fundamentals to be able to allow investors to feel confident that this economy can stand on -- -- We are gonna -- the -- economic fundamentals but I I just don't see them coming -- you see -- economic fundamentals coming from where I mean -- share what was.
You know I mean today we had retail sales -- -- was expecting three or four tenths we got six stents and and isn't that the story of the past.
For years everybody is saying.
But -- these economies are not ready -- -- six tense six tenths we'll 66 stands times 127 point two.
So that's pretty blockbuster if you really added up over -- over a whole year period.
But -- we haven't had that over the past year incomes are up about 4% from a year ago.
Retail sales are up about 4% from a year ago so -- Sam's right it's a half speed kind of thing.
But but when you look at -- the US is about to become.
Energy independent I mean give it next three to five years that we.
You know if I were OPEC I'd be worried about a recession not a -- guy and okay we have some of the greatest technologies that we've ever seen you know the cloud the Smartphone -- tablet.
This stuff is real and and that tells me that we can have an upside surprise I love the -- Brian -- -- I'll leave it on that -- at amen thanks so much -- at appreciate it pleasure are great.
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