Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
Number this week was 151000 the markets I just wanted to say it again.
But the other big number with six point three trillion dollars and that's the estimated cost of the immigration reform plan making its way through congress now.
Not everybody agrees with that.
With -- -- Derrick Morgan a vice president at The Heritage Foundation which came up with the numbers.
And Alex -- outside that immigration policy analyst Dick Kato who says no way.
Derek you say the cost of immigration over fifty years will be some six point three trillion dollars how did you come up with those and.
-- Well it's very quickly why we decided this was important the size and scope of government is much bigger than heritage or Cato would like.
We've got from a government that in 1935.
Spent about 3% of its money on transfer payments that is give -- taking from some Americans are -- as others.
And now we have a government that spends about 23 of -- two thirds of its money to do that.
Well if we -- to -- out about that all the time on this network let's get in the immigration and the cost as you're not there actually controversy and very interesting.
They are so we calculated the cost by looking at the eleven point five million approximately unlawful immigrants in the country.
And looking at through their life time how much are they going to pay in taxes.
And how much are they going to receiving government services and benefits and that's how we came up with that six point three trillion dollar number.
-- to do a lot of extrapolating right and we have to make some assumptions there.
About what happens to these people over time I would think.
Oh sure you have to do that absolutely one of the things that makes me most proud of this report is it's nearly 100 pages.
And goes through in minute detail how we calculated those figures we even went down to the level of calculating.
Lottery ticket purchases.
Why -- -- as an example.
So Alex you don't agree you think these.
Numbers are wrong why.
Why -- wanna say to begin that we agree with heritage of the size and scope -- government has enormous.
But the way to diminish that is not the build walls around the labor market part of Waller sorry off on the benefits of immigration and the reason why I think.
The heritage study unfortunately.
Is -- comes up with an incorrect number -- that -- massively under accounts the economic benefits -- immigration going for it.
We know that what immigration does that literally -- factors of production GDP.
And it makes GDP bigger and makes tax revenues -- of a long run.
And quite frankly we need a dynamic model to score this going forward and unfortunately.
This this heritage study which is very different from their other research which is excellent.
-- just did not include a dynamic model a Democrat.
-- -- -- Well Alex is it's looking at the report and the report isn't supposed to be an analysis of immigration reform it is an analysis of amnesty.
Which we think is unfair will cost too much.
And did it will lead to -- further unlawful immigration in the future as more people come seeing that amnesty.
I may happen again in the future so we wanted to focus in on that aspect and look at the fiscal cost of amnesty.
Alex your response.
Why he thought what that report does unfortunately in the -- of a lot of outdated academic research that undercount the economic benefits of these people being legalized for instance according academic literature.
We can expect a 15% increase in the wages of these individuals immediately.
Based just upon being able to work in the legal market.
Value added about the ability to work legally with Americans who have different skills on them.
And we get -- -- that economists called complementary task especially nation.
Where because and a -- Americans have different skills he worked together and the market rather than compete against each other and that boost GDP.
And that's the sort of the process that we think throughout American history process we're seeing now and it's a process we're gonna see with.
Either illegal -- they.
And by itself or to -- delivered here -- total I don't want -- debate immigration we're not doing that on this show the show doesn't debate that issue.
Derek congress Clinton the various specific.
-- point here made by Alex that made your miscounting how much these people are gonna -- Well actually our study does increase wages immediately following amnesty.
But I would challenge Alex they're they're undoubtedly -- -- is an immigration where we could make changes that would benefit the economy.
But amnesty really isn't one of the house.
These people are already part of the labor force here and any small increase in their wages is that -- wouldn't very -- really effect GDP.
And most of the benefits of that would go to the formerly unlawful immigrants themselves it wouldn't make Americans here lawfully both native born and immigrants better off.
-- I come back to that I want to combat that -- two points for one point.
They make the lowest possible estimation for the increase in wage and it's permissible the real number that a lot of people coming to an out but three times greater.
Also they undercount the ability of these people once -- legal to change jobs easier to work in different industries to increase their human capital to fit better into our society to be able to -- increase.
-- earnings -- -- they have an incredibly static and I must say pessimistic.
I prediction of how while immigrants we'll do in the future basically assuming -- the American dream -- And that's just not true Derek and Alex thanks for coming on tonight appreciate your analysis it's interesting stuff and I I know that people are watching those numbers.
Very carefully thanks so much.
Thank you very what's driving us.
Filter by section