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On the jobs -- my next guest says we are seeing resiliency in the labor market with numbers strong enough to support moderate economic growth joining me now be anti Kerry by chief North American economist Julia Coronado and it's nice to meet you.
Yes very nice to be here so we've heard adds report we've been talking about it all day since the -- -- at 8:30 eastern this morning better than expected report.
Onion plane falling to seven and a half percent right what's more we had two prior months of upward revisions -- another 1141000.
Right but when you look at that they -- components I found troubling but you're the economist so what's your take.
I would agree with that I mean it was relief from some of the gloomy data that we've been getting lately so it wasn't as bad as people had feared and there were some upward revisions and all of that's good.
There is some concern about the quality of jobs being created a lot of service sector tourism related.
And it's jobs and that's a good thing but in terms of are they there are a lot of -- part time a lot of them are not benefits paying jobs you mention a part time and the quality of shots a huge.
-- in the number of part time jobs created 270000.
-- bringing that broader measure of unemployment.
Which includes he's part time -- thirteen point 9% rise of the workers who would prefer to be employed full time and have higher paying better quality gigs right right so that's a trouble spot that's that's an ongoing problem with this recovery that the number of people working part time who wish they were working full time just remains very very elevated.
And again that gets to the quality of jobs the amount of -- -- -- -- be generated from these jobs.
And therefore the growth momentum we can expect -- -- another troubling area I found was that he work week the length of time workers.
Are on the job shortens that's right a short period of time it was.
A fraction of an hour but the link.
Was shorter nonetheless and you.
Look at that.
And compare with the number of part time jobs right now we're at a part time workers who again with preferred this full time unemployment right when you consider the fact that the Obama care is.
Going to start very soon -- and you have all these businesses have the mandate to buy health insurance for workers.
Who are considered full time which is thirty hours a -- so we have these so called 29 -- exactly coming to pass so.
Does it PTA that perhaps Obama care is more destructive to the job situation and and support about it.
You know it's really hard to -- all of these influences -- we do know that Obama care as well as other regulatory issues regulatory uncertainty is a restraining factor for hiring.
We do know that the number of temporary workers and part time workers in this recovery.
Remains very very high so -- there is a hesitancy to take on -- commit to full time workers.
Whether that be for cost reasons -- -- per say or just a general uncertainty it's hard to disentangle those but businesses continually -- Regulatory uncertainty.
And broader global uncertainties as reasons that they are so caution to the market just took off on this report today -- All in if he stepped back 100.
What what what was at 165000.
Pretty new jobs right created nonfarm -- created.
Mean look for years into an economic recovery -- -- this is all we've got and we need what 200 -- even 300.
To reach ideally maximum Fulham play right -- -- really where we are right now in the US economy as we continue to effectively tread water we're growing enough to -- Hold steady in and and remain stable.
So there's no fear that we're sliding into recession and that's exactly why the markets took off today a -- -- -- they are rightly that -- absolutely and profits continue to be reasonably robots but what we're not getting is that transition into.
Stronger hiring stronger income growth stronger consumer spending.
That can take us to that next we'll have OK so where do you see the economy -- -- here obviously the first quarter tape was a disappointing two and a half percent -- expansion pace the GDP.
So what does this dobbs reports say about.
Whether we're seeing.
You know an accretive.
Climate for the economy.
So I think -- were expecting a slowdown in the second quarter to one person -- and that's of the fading of a lot of things that's that's the fading of the hurricane sandy rebuilding at that -- provided a boost earlier on.
And then that's the coming to -- of those sequestration spending cuts.
Not going to be real things but certainly gonna take us down a -- for a little while as we absorb that.
So I think overall we're still probably on an underlying basis running around 2% which is where we've been for the last three what I government spending you know was a huge drain on on GDP and if that -- report was taken before the sequestration cuts even ride into -- I it's it's troubling yes it's it's just it's a struggle it's a struggle disappointing recovery over on -- -- we're not a great talk with -- it's a pleasure thanks for announced that now.
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