Also in this playlist...
This transcript is automatically generated
Thank you for having -- And -- -- did jobs discussion Jeffrey Cleveland chief economist at paid and really says the economy is recovering.
But wage is not so much Jeffrey joins me now so tell us that Jeffrey overall what's your take on the numbers today the market's.
Like about a lot.
Yeah hi Dennis I I think context matters.
And the context you're gone into the number was everyone was looking for this -- -- This slowdown of the economy and in GDP growth and a job growth and it pointed to last month's number the march number.
Which was initially plus 88000.
Well that's been -- revised the way.
And we got a number that -- 15160000.
Which is actually right in line with the twelve month average.
Sorry what I think we have here is just moderate continued growth not a spring -- Okay I think you see that reflected in bonds and equities this morning maybe a goldilocks economy not too hot not too cool.
You even think and I think kids GDP growth this year will be one point five to 2%.
Are you gonna change our overall efforts and raise up.
No I don't think this changes anything all this does is it it pulls people back a little bit date they were looking for more but dramatic slowdown.
After the Fed meeting this week there are looking for the Fed -- their program.
And that's why I think bond prices were bid up over the course of the week we've seen a movement back.
A little bit away from that but by no means Dennis is this report telling you they were seen an acceleration.
And job growth or an acceleration.
In GDP growth stood comparable with that one and a half to 2% -- economy which I think we're in we aren't Q.
From a year ago but you know inflation by the -- in the first quarter was up only one point 2% that counts is a real gain in wages what bothers you about it.
Bother really Dennis is just were always on guard watch for inflation -- bond investors we want to be.
Be vigilant about that and I'm not seen it in this report you still seem very soft wage growth and as you pointed out earlier last week.
That the Fed's preferred measure of inflation one point two.
One point 3% year on year so inflation is very very low at this point on our list of worries and and that's another reminder this morning.
Yeah are you also -- realized you look at the markets all that much every day maybe but the Dow pop up so much on.
What is really -- get right down to it up pump number for jobs -- -- we need 250000.
Really start taking the -- down a big way.
I think we need 200000 -- more.
If you look at what I like to do every month Dennis looked down a few pages in that BLS report the employment to population ratio.
It's right where it was a year ago and -- and attends a percent.
And that's just telling you the pace of job growth even if it's at 170000.
Is just enough to keep up with population growth.
You need is he's open and -- so Bob 8450000.
As you say for you really get.
-- and that economy and -- and really get what I would call robust employment.
Drop we're not there we're not there yet and so I think you know for what does that mean for stocks and bonds and these were recovering so equities to be points.
Up but first -- for bonds.
It means the Fed is probably gonna -- the foot on the gas about the course of 2013.
They are not -- -- they will continue with Q we.
In fact that I really think Dennis the Fed has two settings of monetary policy yes which is yet things are getting better so QE works let's continue -- Are we getting any mideast anywhere if that things are slowing down we do more so it's it's it's it's continuous QE.
What I had more the definition of insanity is keep doing the same thing -- -- -- friend ever results -- thanks for being with us today Jeffrey Cleveland.
Filter by section