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Well my next guest says today's -- for -- report is despondent had two and a half percent is about what we've been averaging since the recession.
Ended in other words.
-- Joining us now former Federal Reserve vice chairman Princeton economist Alan Blinder also often reported after the music stopped.
The financial crisis the response the work -- Great to have you here nice to be with you two and a half percent.
The market obviously to -- like it you know.
It's sort of is that are appropriate reaction to two and a half percent on first report -- -- yeah -- Think so first point is that's mediocre or we should be doing better generically we should have been doing better since 2000 -- And still we should be doing better -- but in addition to that you have the expectations game and the market expectations were for a three -- 3132.
And number like that you get 2.5 it's a bit of discipline it's not a huge difference but it's a different.
It eyesight is I think about all these macro funds out there trying to gauge where Twitter move what that or looking at what's happening in Europe.
They're -- -- watching what's happening here or more accurately what happened here and in the case of the achievers -- -- report at least as best we can estimate.
I mean they've got a tough time right now trying to define.
What we're we're headed slumbering term take some of the pressure off of an inch in particular.
-- -- I'll stop by saying nobody really knows and I'll try to answer question.
It looks like the next quarter here is going to be weaker than the previous although the fact that the first was not a strong.
Mitigates that a bit cause of inventory fluctuations we were looking for a bigger inventory build.
In this quarter didn't happen probably happens next quarter so we we revised up a little bit.
Next quarter but now that let us that -- look weak that benefit we recruit them to -- sport.
Yeah but that said.
-- -- still looks weak if we don't have a one handle.
It'll be a surprise.
For the rest of the year a number like two and a half seems reasonable if in this is a big yeah.
We don't shoot ourselves in the foot fiscally.
Again -- the latest estimates are the potential for crashing into the national debt ceiling has been pushed back.
You remember the congressional agreement early in the year made it -- that may be 1819.
Or something like that.
It now looks like enough revenue has come in and spending was a little lower cost of the sequestered little things.
That nobody's got a date but we may be talking about a September.
-- -- You know we could kill.
-- that's what that yes absolutely but that's not an in considerable.
Deferral period as -- -- have been all the does occur and absolutely it's very substantially for something like that the more we can defer after Iran and and looking out.
It's very unpopular -- Washington DC right now to talk about unemployment.
You know that the greatest issue in the minds of most people responding to surveys.
We've we've got -- around twenty million people.
Who are unemployed in one fashion or the other what relief is there in sight in prospect.
I don't think there's much I mean to -- The big exception when you say the people in Washington aren't talking about unemployment ironically is the Federal Reserve.
Ben Bernanke Janet Yale -- they're talking about unemployment all the time.
They're doing -- people stick together and archer well -- have a speech from hype.
But it -- -- a big change from previous fed believe me when I was on Alan Greenspan we can spend a lot of time talking about unemployment.
That it it is you maker a terrific point here and it is absolutely.
And -- -- you've covered Washington very long.
The think that it is the Federal Reserve chair.
Who is the setting.
It if you will the metrics in terms of the joblessness in this country for monetary policy.
And there's no discussion from the other side the president of the United States from congress.
About unemployment in terms of fiscal off.
Send you a little bit from the president but not that much in here next to nothing about the congress what you hear the the extent do you hear anything from congress is about.
How much more we should be cutting the budget deficit.
So how much that either means depending on your party how much more we're gonna cut spending or how much -- gonna raise taxes neither of those are going to be boosting employment.
He's an impossible.
Is it appropriate that even.
So we consider.
That we would have an economic -- there was free and independent objective.
Perspective on the future.
That is independent of partisanship and ideology these days it just doesn't seem to -- -- Well if you if you talk about just sort of forecasting the likely outcomes people on Wall Street people and academia people over -- doing that.
And not a partisan way you don't really see partisan differences there.
As soon as it turned to the question which you authority of turn -- was like what are we gonna do about it what kind of policy.
Might make things better the partisanship is just right although.
And so far what we're gonna do about it as well it's been not much -- not been much and it hasn't been very exciting.
But we appreciate -- great to have you with the division I --
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