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But he's -- -- start dropping gas prices this past month -- Kenny giving consumers a much needed break.
Our next guest thinks the average price for down and that's actually file another twenty cents but -- more -- they weak link -- out.
There would be another forty cents less than last year joining us now into the -- president of lip out oil associates.
And eat your lipstick got -- first of all but.
Leo we're at 350.
Supply is 20% higher than a year ago is that your rationale for why it's going to be lower.
Well I think there's a couple of things as you mentioned supply is high -- Actually the inventory of crude oil is at a twenty year high refinery operating capacity is at a twenty year high.
The refiners are gonna turn this crude oil surplus into a gasoline and diesel fuel surplus and that's going to be pressuring prices over the next couple of months.
I think it's a big misnomer what you just said that refining capacity is the highest basically ever I think a lot of people.
Maybe there's a misconception out there that some of their refineries are working and are not working to full capacity -- -- -- Well they're not all working at full capacity but what people think about is how many brand new grassroots refinery is we've built in the country in the last.
Thirty years the answer is zero but how many expansions have we done.
We've done millions of barrels a day of expansions.
And that's going to continue to cope with the increasing amount of crude oil production.
And also in your notes crude oil production in the US will exceed the amount of crude oil crude oil we import by the -- that's like crazy.
It really is quite -- astounding what happened in the US over the last couple years.
Today production is about seven point three million barrels a day or imports of crude oil are right at seven point five million barrels a day.
By the end of the -- I expect crude oil production to be upwards of seven and three quarter million barrels a day.
Which will exceed the amount -- imports this has a lot of ramifications for us including the trade balance.
Lot and there's always the national safety concerns that we rely on these countries that he -- to import oil and maybe we can stop doing that.
If this trend continues you know chip says that a half a long US drivers think three -- 44 -- account is still too.
Hi -- it actually get lower for them.
Well I think over the next couple weeks I'm expecting oil price why gasoline prices to decline another five to ten cents a gallon.
So that puts it at 340 to 345.
Just where that survey is but I do believe that's a good chance to 330 is in the cards for memorial -- Typically -- driving season people hit the -- and get you know take a little road trip prices go up you don't think that's gonna happen this summer.
I think we've already seen the what I call the pre season gasoline price rally is already being here and we're just really going to be stabilized through the rest of the summer.
That is such great news the other thing though is that people's habits have changed right they kind of have got you know because we had a high prices at one time.
The eat out less big drive less maybe they you know big delay purchasing because because of these high gas prices have not gonna play -- Well it's been an impact in fact gasoline demand is down over 6% since its peak in 2007.
But a bigger effect as -- Increased mileage efficiency of the new cars replacing the old cars.
And so the forecast -- I -- gasoline demand in the US is got to continue to decline over the next ten years.
And even for it lets you go what would throw this beautiful rosy picture off what could derail your little plan here.
Well my biggest concern is.
And that growing into a wider conflict that impacts crude oil supply in other countries.
As well as concern about the the rhetoric coming at a North Korea just making the oil market nervous yet yet another reason why we need to rely on our own oil without you.
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