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-- on the economy despite today's better than expected jobless claims numbers a slew of recent economic data sparked concerns on the second quarter.
Could it spell trouble for tomorrow's GDP reading -- -- that's probably Donna the senior US economist at Deutsche Bank Karl joining us from New York Stock Exchange.
He worried about a second quarter soft -- Well good afternoon I.
We're definitely going to see the economy shifting to a lower -- in Q2 but -- I don't think we're gonna hit a soft patch akin to what we thought the past couple of years.
That's really the major challenge for economists right now with the draw that distinction between.
Shifting from let's say.
Third gearing Q1 down -- -- second hearing Q2 vs going all the way into neutral and I bet that's really the fear among some economists at this point.
That's a great way to put it -- fight the form you know we just got the initial jobless claims this morning which are better than.
Expect -- coming off a huge disappointment for that march government report on payrolls added right so yeah.
Just in terms of -- jobs sector of the US economy do you think that the next reading the next government report on jobs will.
Show a bounce back in and will kind of be through this sort of.
Controller first year.
But what I -- I I think we're gonna see significant improvement in the April data march was just felt lousy month across the spectrum from retail sales to nonfarm payrolls consumer sentiment.
Thought we had sequestration concerns we had lots of bad weather in the month of with a very cold month.
All of these things are -- on economic activity.
I think that as we get into April we're going to see an improvement and certainly that jobless claims series that was reported this morning.
That's sending a very important signal that's one of our best labor market predictive tools.
But at its holding in.
At the lows which tells us that we will see -- some re acceleration in the pace of hiring.
If not an April then certainly later on in the second quarter.
What's the latest GDP -- going to look like but will -- say.
I think GDP is going to be stronger than the consensus is anticipating that consensus is looking for about a 3% number which is certainly good.
I'll -- a little bit higher where it almost 3.5.
Percent out what we're seeing here at the real roller coaster in the GDP figures.
-- hurricane sandy had a big impact on Q4.
In terms of businesses shut down but in particular I utility output is gonna be a key underlying -- -- to watch that's gonna snap back in Q1 and again if I mark mentioned the bad weather in March is going to further.
Increase -- utility demand so that's going to be a key component pushing the economy into Abbott mentioned third gear if you -- now that they'll be some leveling out.
-- -- as the year wears on but Q1 should look very very decent.
I would confidence is an economic telling just look the markets in the new highs it touched in the time period.
But that that's interesting stocks are are certainly that pointing to a high degree of confidence among investors -- got business says.
But if we look at those sentiment -- -- third base they really took it on the chin in in March I suspect that they again that that Labor Day to stabilize that that we have evidence that we're not going into another.
-- mid year growth swoon.
That those confidence figures will -- recover as well.
We've also got the Fed meeting this week right Carl.
What do you think do you think this economic data will you know give the Fed just more cause to continue stay this course there was some talk -- I'm sure you're well aware of -- the Fed would sort of pare down its bond purchases down from the 85 billion.
I think the Fed will taper it's purchases later this year but we certainly haven't seen the type of improvement in the data that -- war at -- Tapering just yet doubt that that's something that what the wait until at least mid year to see.
Think the Fed is no different then that the other economists that were watching the data and potentially yet concerned about that may gears wounds of that they'll they'll believe it when they see it.
And we won't really see it until the Q2 data are reported and that will be July and August.
What -- you have your finger on the pulse of all things economics and we're so grateful for your time this afternoon into the afternoon Robert and Donna --
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