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Next -- -- markets have had a great run but he expects a pullback in the short term -- like every dollar purse Gary Goldberg financial services president is here and you EPS -- 1635 by the end of the year but you're getting ready you're getting your clients ready for a pullback yeah.
Absolutely -- so I think it's important for investors to remember a short term pullback -- very much part of the natural cycle markets nothing goes up in a straight line so this is nothing to people should panic about.
But you -- to take a look at your portfolio right now and sell some of the weaker names.
At nickel or -- -- just pointed out you've got two down days in a row potentially that hasn't happened a while -- -- financials breakdown you've had small caps break down and you've had transport.
I don't know that credit those considered a breakdown I consider Friday's market are rapidly -- -- -- I think -- -- were saying it has so many analysts come on and say of course it's gonna go doesn't it.
Will want to end because at this point you've got nothing but strong day.
Some talking about the trend of the last two weeks actually since the last week of march.
Some of these technicals have broken down so that's an early warning signal -- -- FactSet put out a report a couple of weeks ago.
Quo by year over year earnings for the first quarter and it's kicking off today as you pointed out yourself -- expected to declined by zero point 7% I don't that a comparison its fair -- comparisons are tough but I think that's gonna be a little bit of a headline.
News and let's not forget the most important factor stocks -- up 10% in the first quarter.
That's a heck of a year much less a heck of a quarter so you wanna expecting you need to expect a little bit of a pullback we're talking three to 5% we're not talk instances sort a huge number.
And by the way that sets up for pretty good rally going into the late summer probably -- and and fall and winter and that's what we still expect the 1635.
And that's not what history has given us over the past three years -- -- -- 092000 tent that's -- -- and while.
Every time we had a strong spring had sprung a strong kick off next thing you know the fall comes around and something happens at a Washington whether that's -- -- -- the election.
And we take a -- well that's so frustrating part I think.
Yes sort absolutely so that's why you -- -- be a little bit cautiously wanna sell you weaker names and stick to large cap strongly and with good balance sheets.
Stocks that are -- a benefiting from share buybacks -- increased dividends.
Those are names that you want to focus in on and those -- high quality dividend paying stocks generally speaking.
Keep in mind the lack the fourth quarter of last year 2012 kind of Tel two things first half of the quarter of two over early half of November up until just about Thanksgiving things were kind of -- washing into the downtrend.
Very strong December and a surprise everyone I think going into you know the potential fiscal cliff how strong equities traded in end of the December.
So you're saying watch out -- -- earnings front again the real we're kicking off earnings today you're saying that those are his comparisons those numbers of returns for the first quarter of 2013 or not -- and look back.
God that's -- that's sequestration what is that well.
I think it's it's sold I think the full quarter earnings are two things.
It's port the comparisons are difficult so that inevitably makes it challenging but as I talk to you about about a month ago when I was on just before sequestration hit -- That's certainly going to impact hiring and business growth as a -- so everybody's pulling back just a little bit.
And it doesn't take a lot in a fragile economy an economy that's growing by less than 2% annually.
We're a little bit of a pull back and holding back hurts people and -- hiring and growth.
I would've followed a couple of names that you recommended last time that you -- -- -- I'd never say because they're going into different directions you'll like Microsoft and you also liked on campus on.
-- Amazon and apple excuse me Amazon and apple Amazon and apple and apple you're saying that they're gonna have a lot of pressure.
-- -- for yet they're gonna have a some some earnings pressure earnings are expected to be down some 25%.
-- over here.
Now that's been largely built into the stock if you still own apple we like it we continue to hold it and we're buying more on dips because we do think that the apple story -- -- great one.
-- over the next three to five years this is not a short term trade.
-- in this for the short term.
You know at Apple's not the place to be because a technical -- they don't look particularly.
You're saying on Amazon earnings per share for the first quarter up 20% -- relaxed and it's about very bullish call that's a very blunt -- summit to bring you back though and let's check on I'll I'll be here you can call me you can.
Email me if I ever again keep in mind and this is important it's about comparisons and it's about expectations had -- market is expecting those numbers that doesn't mean that the stocks are going to be able -- All of reversing thank you Oliver good to have you on the -- thanks --
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