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Well my next -- says underlying momentum remains intact for the labor mark despite today's jobs report joining me now with his economic outlook.
Cholera can -- a senior US economist for Deutsche Bank securities -- -- you enjoy your perspective so.
88000 when economists were looking for 200000 payrolls added to the economy doesn't concern you.
This was a lousy report -- African sending a stern okay so while without a doubt we can't -- -- -- sugar coat the report the unemployment rate fell for all the wrong reasons as people.
Threw in the -- on job searches.
We sell weakness that throughout the hiring numbers are so march really was the -- we can't sugarcoat it -- you mentioned.
January and February jobs created were revised higher its almost as hit job creation fell off a cliff I -- we do have net -- here but why such a difference.
Well something happened in March and that's the question were asked is -- this illustration I.
Think it's the fear mongering over the sequestration there so with a case of we only have you know there waiting to fear is fear itself.
How we had all of this political grandstanding in late February from the president from the congressional leadership.
Highlighting that the doomsday scenario that's the frustration went into effect well.
It went into effect and we didn't see a large up front impact however households and businesses were so -- -- those effects would be that they held off.
So we saw household sentiment gauge its collapse -- -- business sentiment gauge its collapse and I think businesses said.
Let's hold off on that hiring plan until possibly April.
SharePoint -- but one thing that did happen it is a true fundamental is the payroll tax increase.
People are feeling that already so there is a strong course saying that -- did lead to a cutback in shots.
Well without a doubt -- it a tax increase is a break on the economy.
I suspect that if it was really that the tax increase that was sad depressing hiring a we would have seen more evidence of that in January and February so I really think it was.
Some of the concern of the sequestration that that led to this -- -- we'll have to watch that the near term data to see if things are turning around in early gauge could be next week except for women are you reading on consumer sentiment and that'll be out on Friday also these weekly unemployment -- filings have been all over the map backing up sharply over the last two weeks.
They -- to head lower that'll also be an important signal that this is really just pick up and not the beginning of the new.
Okay see you're not ready to say that we are you know 11 bad month doesn't one month -- -- management.
The White House -- did release its budget today including tax hikes and Medicare cuts among other factors and summing it up here.
Briefly but how the economy digest that if -- now is the question of whether or not these tax hikes in the payroll taxes are influencing business decisions on hiring.
Short while I think we're going to see that -- -- in the second quarter -- the the problem is if this budget comes out next week.
And it's really dead on arrival then that brings up the concern of the debt ceiling something we haven't thought about it a while that was pushed back to may of this year but really we can.
We go our way through until July or August well.
I wasn't so long ago when 2011 what we had to debt ceiling standoff a ratings downgrade in the economy swoon so this budget is really a non starter.
And it looks like it's back to the drawing board with.
I know compromise in sight -- we could be facing another late summer slowdown in the economy certainly does not need that right.
-- we have to go but I'm wondering if this is finally firm data that it's.
Proposals these proposals would continue to see from the White House -- they want revenue increases they want -- revenue increases were seeing how it is such a crimp on economic growth.
While I certainly hope it's not the case of core import all day they'll be telling -- -- the one ray of hope.
-- -- consumer spending is holding up you know vehicle sales look good retail -- -- -- American consumer right I thought through don't underestimate.
Carlo it's a pleasure my pleasure okay come.
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