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That morning the big miss in the jobs a number of rattling traders and James Lavin -- -- -- asset management joins us now days ahead of the number you said that a little idea the labor market disaster beginning to be priced into stocks and given today's tumble may be it wasn't think it is now.
I think I definitely think it is now I don't think today is that much of a tumble.
You know down eight tenths of a percent on the S&P 500.
Can be looked at as a sort of rudimentary kind of just normal day.
But -- -- I mean just to take this bigger picture it's very hard for me to get too worked up about this number obviously it's disappointing we would like to -- -- more job growth.
But the overall trend outside of this month of march which a lot of the data this week has shown was clearly below.
Average outside of march things have been looking pretty good in my opinion -- you know you -- digits in the day we absolutely do not -- the belief that the US economic recovery is slowing that Europe is bringing the rest of the world doubt that politicians are ruining things.
You still feel that way.
I do still feel that way I want -- qualify the last one about the politicians hope the politicians have a lot of potential to ruin things.
But the market and the economy is recovering in spite of that and we hold out of control of hope.
But the politicians particularly in Washington will be Smart enough to just step back and not get in the way.
They have to take any action don't do any policy just get.
Get out of the way but only a mere ten -- of hope has a great word now you also point out that in the first quarter stocks -- like 11%.
More than some analysts are expecting for the entire right here -- given rise.
Do we still have room to go up more for the rest of this year I think the answer is yes because and it's gonna depend critically on our earnings come in particularly in this upcoming month of April.
But I think the answer is yes I also think that your point is well made I think this is where you going with it bit.
You know up 11% one quarter you're expected to give a little bit back from that before moving higher so.
This week has not been a particularly lovely week in the markets but it's in some ways to be expected after that first quarter -- it is big jobs shortfall we thought it would be 200 K came in 88.
What's coming more disappointments you have to see before you think -- -- now on a trend of about employment picture I think you really have to start worrying in the first week of may if you see another disappointing number on the monthly job employment fort -- -- that's when you have to start to worry now between now and then Dennis.
You'll have weekly initial jobless claims that'll be coming in every week that's a good thing to track okay they bounced higher this week as you guys reported died yesterday.
But if they start coming back down towards that 3450000.
Weak level you can take some comfort from -- now a lot of us Brady cats of been on that sideline not.
Investing in stocks for the entire run up because -- look at trying to put some money in their now little daunting so tell us about some sectors you point out that are still well off the -- big ranks as one right.
So but let me just back up for a second the S&P is 22 to 3% off of -- -- There's a lot of sectors that are ten to 15% off their highs and that's where we should be putting our money -- give -- so those big banks Citigroup comes to mind.
The refiners this week in particular have gotten clobbered by some EPA announcements that have been coming out that may affect their profitability.
But down 10% a week let me tell you something their business hasn't changed that much.
And then you can also go with the what -- call -- the hyper cyclicals like the caterpillars of the world.
That really are not only 10% off of their recent highs that's a good 30% off of its all time high of just a year ago.
That's nice okay -- anymore those cheaper areas we should be looking out well I'll throw for one more that's for the more risk tolerant of us take a look at the airlines now the airlines have -- a lot of press.
Over this past quarter and this past week they've given back a lot of the gains for the year based on a lot of demand numbers for march now from all the economic data.
We're seeing -- was clearly not a good month no matter how you measure it.
But the picture is still -- -- for lower oil prices to flow through the bottom line of airlines and demand continuing to pick up.
Combined with their ancillary pricing of things like.
Bag checking in and meals and blankets that's actually good place to be but you have to be risk to our founder of jetBlue once told me that watch oil prices because when they go down airline stocks almost always go up so it's another good sector -- Well -- thanks for being with us -- -- -- -- -- a pleasure thank you.
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