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Thank you just -- a job numbers this morning.
The ADP private report so the private sector adding a 158000.
New jobs last month that was below estimates.
And for more let's go straight to -- dispute for his perspective senior vice president chief economic strategist at.
Mike sparks -- Craig thank you for coming on and your perspectives what what -- you take away from this notes on and one report but we always.
Pay close attention ahead of the big one on Friday.
So good morning Connell yet.
It is a couple things that take from -- number one.
The eighty -- ADP report isn't that reliable of an indicator for Friday's report -- the -- -- the -- -- really care about -- Friday's -- report.
-- what what I would say is it's disappointing.
When you add -- on top of a disappointing ISM manufacturing report that we got on Monday.
We also had a disappointing ISM non manufacturing report today including a four point drop in employment index.
And do you start to get the feelings of this spring slowdown starting does that come back OK because that's and it's gonna worry the markets.
That's really where the debate is dead right -- you're going on the season where the markets -- -- that you pick up on that point because you are all time highs for the stock markets and of stock market and -- pulling back today a little bit but do you think the pattern is going to repeat itself because we've been trying to figured out what's gonna happen.
For the rest of the years a lot of money come out of bonds into stocks is there a bond bubble that's gonna.
Burst early series out there what's what's yours.
So there's two things you're talking about is one with the economic.
Trends I do think -- bit of a slowdown I think it's hard to repeat that.
What we expect to see 3% growth in the first quarter many gotta be hard to sustain going forward they'll be hard to keep that 200000 plus payroll growth going forward.
As it relates to the market there's two things to have to take into account number one the stock market.
Is responding to the Fed.
And also corporate profits but largely to the Fed the bond market is responding more what's happening in Europe again that we didn't see that for -- six months and now they've -- coupled.
And you start to see treasury yield trading based on what's happening in Europe.
So if we do see a slowdown I think when it dies.
Is it perpetuates the idea that the federal keep buying bonds which -- helped stocks and and bonds are gonna respond to what happens in Europe.
OK so then give us as a final a kind of point on all of this to try to bring it all together.
Give us a rest of the year outlook.
Just for the financial markets if you can't Jason David -- spot in the bond market -- what happens in -- And I talk about what might happen in the stock market so you.
Your your your.
-- your case for the rest of the year.
Is basically what -- big ugly might happen or rich rich -- kind of Peter along and then continue what we've been seeing.
Well I'm I'm religion what happens in Europe I think there's there's two big things -- happen number one the Italian elections.
How does get resolved and number two the German elections later in the fall -- so that to me is gonna dictate what happens in the bond market on stocks I think the Fed isn't very devastated him.
Probably continue to see strength in stocks.
OK stick continue to see the strength of the stock market not to -- continue to see the strength because the case has been made over government to the Fed.
I can't not manage getting out of the markets and then things get ugly but you don't think they'll -- Craig to speak thank you very much body sparks with us today to start us off thanks a lot.
Thank you --
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