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Earlier this hour -- -- annuities Tony Dwyer was so bullish.
On the market he is just raised his target on the S&P 500 by year end to 176 day.
And our next guest has a much different perspective on where these markets are headed.
Down and way down Harry Dent is managing director at HS then advisors.
-- good to seeing you wrote.
The roaring two thousands which came out and not -- not right before the stock market collapsed and then you read the Great Depression ahead.
Which came out right before the markets bought -- and -- what sells better boomer dam here.
Well -- -- a lot better for speeches but looks good books can do well either way.
Come in and we're not bullish or bearish obviously jobs very bullish in the the eighty's and ninety's and into thousands and now the baby boom generation has peaked in the United States and the Fed is fighting a very strong downtrend.
And and Mike called the demographic -- this is gonna continue to happening country up the country and region after region -- round the world.
Why it would it calls why would end your baby members spending last -- why would that calls.
A market downturn unless they're selling their stocks to fund -- -- bank.
Well it's not it's if not they're buying or selling stocks that drives the stock market the stock.
Market correlate with earnings and earnings is driven by consumer spending which is 70% of GDP and also drives business capital spending and government revenues so.
He really is consumers it drive this.
If people earn and spend more money from age twenty in a 46 they kind of -- -- one of the early fifties where we're -- now with a baby boom and then spending dropped dramatically people do not understand what you look at the numbers.
Problem how much spending dropped off especially for durable goods housing cars.
And things like that the people borrow for help -- gets paid down so so baby boomers 92 million baby boomers are not going to be spending in the next decade and they're gonna be -- From 20122040.
-- greatest -- And David hit a graphic trends now -- and I mean why wouldn't that trend here in the US for example be offset.
-- out growing population in places like Asia India China.
While we only export about 10% of our GDP so yes it does help.
We I I am less bearish since some they would be look at my numbers because of the emerging world where the demographics are strong but but even China.
Hits this clip starts the plateau 2015.
To twenty fight and then drops off like Japan.
It's in a plateau now when they're getting -- kind of demographic wave.
And any gets big big drop off a steep -- up if you have and fourteen from Europe in this much trouble now.
Imagine how many -- they'll be in the future what this much trouble is slamming then what do you do with your money where do you put it.
Well you know what happens in these periods when a generation peaks like that in the 1930s was a slow period and in the 1970s every forty years has happened.
The market -- goes sideways in an increasingly volatile manner so buy and hold of it works well but you can't be out of the markets either did you get strong rallies especially with the Fed.
Stimulating so hard so we just say when things bubble up now that there's very strong resistance at 16100 on the -- -- That's my target for later this year and then I think we're gonna start heading down.
-- -- that's the trend through the past two tops in bubble pop so.
-- -- active let me say essentially trade.
Which is so did not have like what the long term like a long term trader like just every several years on the market bubble up you get more defense should be getting a safer short term.
Bonds and then when they crashed you've got to have the guts to step back here because -- What will see another crash and we'll see another strong stimulus program -- will continue this.
-- that demographic trends in the US -- -- echo boom don't turn up until the early 2020 so.
The Fed's gonna be fighting this downtrend for a long time -- -- but if this strategy works -- white and you're ET after -- AT FD batter didn't you have to it didn't it's not around anymore as a yeah -- we had a model you know got tested grade and then all this sort of stop and then -- this environment with the Fed.
Literally manipulating and pushing the markets mean it is taking two trillion dollars a year one trillion Q we.
One trillion in fiscal deficit just to keep economy growing at 2% or 300 billion so.
The Fed is basically manipulating the markets and most classic trading models and most indicators when stocks over water so they they just don't work anymore so.
So yet we had to abandon that it it didn't do -- just didn't do as well as we wanted to do Harry thank you for being here good Steve Perry didn't take care.
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