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There I today's data shows improvement in sectors across the economy including jobs housing and manufacturing but.
That's a -- are so that a bad movie doesn't Questar those cuts have only just started and this week disappointing growth figures from.
Global giants FedEx caterpillar.
They're -- a different story so how long.
Will what a lot of people think -- -- recovery how Long Will it last joining us now is -- Cleveland.
From a -- and legal senior economist and very simply how long can it last Jeffrey.
I think you can -- for quite some time out of I think.
Is very low right now for the US economy despite some of things going on.
On a global basis.
And if I can I pointed to big indicators -- Today's data on.
If his client out of all right for unemployment better days ago yeah it's -- -- let's make.
The four week moving average of that now is at its lowest level.
Since February of 2008.
So it's not a it's not pointing any way towards a pick up in layoffs and back layouts are very low right now.
And -- it make it's a little comfortable on the on the recession front the recession outlook front.
Jeff clearly did what I want -- -- we look at that -- -- Divx it's you know at historic -- people are complacent they feel good right now.
But should say the Federal Reserve says we shouldn't because they can't find that bond buying program continues they're still trying to stimulate the economy because they.
-- at a very weak position why we think otherwise.
Yeah I think the Fed is looking at it you have it you know -- -- the data dashboards and they're not just looking at claims for unemployment insurance they're looking at the pace of hiring.
They're looking at the -- overall unemployment rate and what they see there.
Is room from improvement.
So they -- -- -- -- -- -- substantial improvement use Bernanke's terms faith and we're not quite -- substantial -- they're gonna stick with their bond buying program Jeff do you think that's on the housing data we're getting indicates -- -- housing market and if you answer yes to that question I have a follow up FactSet expect that other.
There's no wind no sun columnist Rebecca why why do you think and then -- -- -- with them.
Well isn't -- sales are up which is good.
Rob starts are building permits are up especially from the bottom and -- usually -- win win building activity when it starts and permits are running.
20% or more year on year.
This is when the economy is expanding not when it's on that the -- -- all of a recession itself but I challenge you on that let me challenge you are in trouble about a -- Condo -- -- Chicago album sales surged eight point 8% but single family sales only up two tenths of a percent at -- -- end of the day.
Median price for a house 173600.
Bucks at the peak of the market -- it was 238000.
Couple years ago we are far nationwide from getting back at this isn't a recovering most of the -- back out wiped out is still -- the -- Yeah you know what I think though it's a different between that looking at levels in the levels that we achieved in the in the prior peak.
And then thinking about month the month.
Incremental progress we are making progress back towards those those levels -- -- -- 2142.
Before we get there.
Right it's not I don't think we can bet on aren't you convinced that there's a new boom coming in realist and a.
And it's like yeah.
He's he's trying to improve just gonna say differently -- -- and I got to get a year's somewhere well it doesn't other -- -- -- -- -- as a -- and this is this Cyprus to -- obviously this is got the markets worried right now.
You know it is is third chance that we -- -- a consumer Americans in general fearful that we could see -- -- situation here at home they're gonna buckle down.
And not be spending as much money.
Now I I don't think so I think Cyprus is somewhat of an isolated event.
It's roiling global markets because I think global markets global investors generally where we're thinking that the eurozone problems were over.
That they had somehow been -- -- and that risk was away in Cyprus is a small country but a big reminder.
That -- -- crisis is ongoing.
And we we got data out of Europe this morning.
That also didn't help and it looks like GDP.
In the Euro area we'll continue to contract in Q1 and into -- And I think that's what side what's moving around global markets today that's a big factors to -- Cyprus is small.
But it has -- ripple effect we all right Jeff quickly land senior economist at Hayden Henry earlier good sport for put up with us or you okay thank you for having -- a lot.
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