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She -- it.
After hitting a -- intra day record high in yesterday's trading we're all here together remember the Dow is pulling back today.
A concerns over Europe -- obviously and some mixed economic news is this rally.
Finally do for a correction or we'll benchmarks continued to climb higher -- have a three bites.
Higher bullish side we've got Ned Riley Riley asset management founder and CEO weighing in as our bear John -- -- leader capital CEO president and senior portfolio.
Manager in and you got becoming a -- here with you.
Net on the issue.
You know we've had this great -- -- had these big numbers coming out and obviously everyone seat is kind of getting cautious getting nervous that makes sense.
What do you say to those that are looking for that new high and the S&P may be by the end of the trading.
Well I don't know but to trading week -- it's another month before we hit a high and the -- and take.
This -- been a Rodney Dangerfield kind of market getting no respect whatsoever -- people talk about the retail coming back into the market place.
We've got to consider the backdrop that in the last four years retail investors have sort of this quarter -- 400 billion dollars with a record in -- fund.
And what we saw the first six weeks of this year was just a small pittance they came back into the market.
Retailer still scared they don't believe it they're skeptics.
And I like that backdrop that's a great positive backdrop to have.
You -- the news is bad you buy when the skeptics are out there.
And you sell like heck out of the market when everybody is euphoric and optimistic and I think we're a great psychological backdrop right now.
-- as you -- psychology of the market -- -- economic environment.
You're looking at the economy you know we had kind of a mixed picture today and then again corporate -- so that's.
That's the -- side of this John I know that you're very bearish I mean you're calling for some serious corrections.
On the S&P -- the down you're saying it's gonna happen sooner rather than later.
What are you saying on the other side of the coin here.
Well like I gotta agree with that when things you -- which they are when Alan Greenspan comes out.
And says buys stocks along with all the movie stars and of course our good friend -- Then you should be looking to sell you and -- and I'd also like to say this you know I was on the show here last April 2012 we're panel on the table then.
Right now I get some real -- and I'll give you a few of them.
You know one GDP -- -- nine point 1% in you know fourth quarter 2012.
You know analyze members are running around 2% it just isn't keeping up.
Unfortunately the treasury market is not confirming here.
You know if if if the tenure as a T 75 I think we probably leg up here not happening.
You know and I think and I think thirdly look at look at earnings look at oracle look at FedEx and look for a lot of disappointing earnings.
Did you know to be -- particularly in the next few weeks.
You know OK coming at us so that that's really the barricades here.
You know Cyprus is systemic and and is definitely gonna bring some pressure here if you look back when we went through this -- Greece.
On the markets lost almost 16%.
You're gonna get a many repeat here I think look for all these mid major market averages that.
Come back to their moving -- -- the 200 day moving averages is is kind of what -- what we're looking for.
You're also looking John I wanna see if you really click on this with -- -- appear looking for a very sharp pullback in the next sixty days and -- I -- -- your reasoning about the second half of 2013.
Because we've seen this story play out the last three years.
That I understand but you're looking for S&P 1428 to 1430 that's a bearing bearish call me yes and.
Will which -- which which is just the 200 day moving average that's all that it's OK -- if -- I thought.
A -- it's really a technical issue but you look at the fundamental backdrop and I -- you would nets -- but look at the fundamentals.
And this thing in Cyprus services not just a million people who cares what -- criminals etc.
go steal their money who gives darn.
It's a big deal and really the bigger deal this is nobody is a three and plays and the ECB is still hasn't got together in terms of the Central Bank perhaps the real problem -- -- you're actually bullish on Europe go ahead.
I am bullish on Europe because everything is being done to try to stimulate growth.
John I have to disagree with you here on the -- side of the equation things -- flattening out.
But if you consider where we've come from in the last four years we have had miserable GDP growth in what had profits more than double.
Look at what's gonna happen on the next to a -- -- I don't care the next quarter because the market discounts to quarters ahead.
We've got Europe that will recover it notwithstanding what's going on in Cyprus today we will have the Far East totals -- -- We're gonna -- US exports -- -- explode once this gross that momentum start.
Profit -- a move from this level -- To a much higher level of the market ever anticipated.
Slow growth is actually long term beneficial for asset prices because inflation stays low.
Interest rates stay -- it's when the Fed stops to get concern about a six and a half percent.
Unemployment rate and the fact that -- kind of -- fast we have a surplus of resources we have a surplus capital we don't have labor in this saying they -- -- money.
I don't -- -- benefits they can't get them anymore.
Productivity is the word of the day.
And the final -- I like the mega that I can't look what city this just coming out of my area OK parents time and again I -- -- -- the last word go ahead shot.
Well look let go ahead sin is you know is -- you know -- you know you don't we have as a surplus of this economic growth -- This is great the look the dollar moving up is gonna hurt repatriation.
Particularly the large cap multinational so look for earnings to be disappoint look for more oracle disappointments more FedEx this deployments that's right around the corner.
In addition look for GDP to be benign and as far as housing starts look for those to begin to tip over.
All the good all the good deals have been picked over and are gone so the housing market play.
Is kind of over look for a retracement here look we we were that never want -- a total return -- last three to 15%.
Less risk and -- impeach him.
And -- and I would say it takes some your money off the table here.
And and -- -- on the sidelines I think you've seen a run for the year we park it here.
I need to know Linda get that up but now that's the problem for me -- -- all right John and -- thank you both brilliant but made excellent arguments on bungalow for attire is gonna have to come back in a bit excellent excellent points -- John thank you we'll see very is that thing.
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