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NFIB chief economist Bill Dunkelberg weighs in on the results of the latest small business confidence survey.
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Anglo American small business companies rose slightly in February it still remains stuck in recessionary territory though.
That's according to a new survey by the National Federation of Independent Business.
-- chief economist build uncle berg joins us now to discuss his.
Growing gap now -- bill I can't believe a month has passed so quickly that you were here -- But this thing is not moving right we can't get this this as we king of the survey off the ground -- We weekend you know losing their Tracy two point says there's not a bad -- The problem is though that it didn't give us anywhere and it certainly wasn't a breakout.
The index's value is ninety point eight for February.
The average index for the 44 months we've been in recovery is ninety point seven so we got a -- tenth of a point there yes.
We're just not go and anywhere and and the main concern I think is that.
People still all have a lot of confidence in the economy is going to improve so they're not going to hire they're not going to order inventories and are not going to expand their businesses.
And bill what about Washington we got Obama care costs and that I would imagine would be a big decidedly small businesses -- they go over the fifty employee limit.
The health care costs associated with that is that a big reason to that would not -- -- hiring in the expansion that we'd like to see.
Well I think that'll be -- hold hold that for some of -- actually it's.
But remember 90% of the employer firms out there have fewer than twenty employees so.
They're little ways from fifty they'd probably love to be at fifty and have your business that would make them go to fifty but.
But they don't nonetheless they're all looking at the cost of an employee.
Once this comes along the mandatory coverage you have to give them and of course they're thinking more about.
You know -- get rid of a full time employee and replace them with two part time employees so I can avoid some of the cost.
That obamacare is going to impose on the course that's much more efficient and efficient sorry.
That's an efficient way to do your business have two people do work from one hard to manage that.
And yet I thought was really interesting from the survey results.
Their current job openings escorted 21% to 21% of the businesses surveyed say they have current job openings.
In Italy 4% plant specific plan to increase and increase employment.
So they need to help but.
To your point and NASA's point they're not gonna take it on our that -- They and they are -- you don't hire someone until they can bring enough value a new lease pay there.
Pay for their wages so.
The -- and that you know we have the net negative 28% of the owners say that they expect business conditions to be worth six months from now than better.
That's a terrible number and very few of them expected real sales volume to go up so there's no real reason the higher.
And of course there's no real reason order inventories either so the manufacturers on -- to get those orders we.
We have a net negative 1% plan to add -- inventories.
That's up from negative seven so -- that's a good improvement but we need to go farther we need some.
Both there and we're not getting it.
Bill what about access to capital which is so important and and probably only traditional option of going into a banking getting alone -- -- I'm hearing complaints of tighter restrictions on credit -- some.
Home equity loans -- of the very basic things that small businesses kind of tap into.
To keep afloat are you hearing problems about the credit side of things.
Well overall we're you know we're not giving a lot of -- saw only 2% said that.
Credit was their top business problem that's a record low forty year record low number.
When we asked -- -- third credit needs were met -- in -- sense that yes all my credit needs were met 7% said no.
But the lowest number we've ever had -- 4% back in 2000 so we're not far from that and of 51% said.
Who wants alone and if you -- the that the thirteen present demands -- that's like two thirds of the small businesses are not -- -- because they don't know what to do with the money.
-- we only have a few seconds bill but you know we -- payroll tax increase taxes go up we said gas prices go up did either of those affect the survey at all.
Well I think than they did in the sense that consumers spending hasn't really -- gone up a whole lot of and that's where the key is.
The taxes on the worst thing to happen as we know much worse than -- cut in government spending.
For them when you talk about expanding the economy.
This is to see -- that affects the survey going forward Belk -- yeah island Tom that built on -- with an but I do the other.
See -- next month's there.
