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The Weekly Standard’s Stephen Hayes, American Wealth Management Laif Meidell and United Advisors’ Scott Martin on the outlook for the job market a...
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-- care and for some more reaction on jobs as well as top of that recovery and our country's wealth got today's all star money.
Hal Scott Martin chief market values that united advisors late -- -- president of American wealth management.
And Stephen Hayes senior writer at the weekly standard and -- Fox News contributor welcome Paul Scott you're sitting next -- so let's start with the EU all right jobs report what do you think glass half full glass that happened to it's getting to the half full side if it's -- It was literally a 5050 shot here because like you talked about what Peter this kind of good things and bad things about this number that the film is gonna say -- Three years or so let's say pick pick -- I'm at a time Dennis were into this recovery.
We're still really not seeing that explosive growth that I feel like -- -- -- -- GDP as we know last quarter's zero point 1%.
That's not the kind of environment that's -- constantly create these 240 job numbers that we got today my friend.
Right -- my -- you advise the rich and managing their wealth what do you think about the jobs go to -- You know did us all I'll take it you know I'll take movement in the positive direction.
I like the fact that the service jobs were -- 79080000.
More than in January.
Government good producing jobs up 67026000.
Greater than last month.
I'll take it I'm a glass half full kind of guy I like that Steve Hayes of the weekly standard in a lot of people worry that there's an utter disconnect between the stock market going up.
And the economy poking along rather in -- pound key way.
Doesn't think 246000.
New jobs that private companies hired last month doesn't that say that there's not as much a disconnect as -- -- Maybe not as much as we thought although it seems to be pretty clear that -- still is that disconnect and and I think there are they're very but several good things to be excited about a new and you've talked about them with the other guests.
There are also things to be less excited about -- long term unemployment.
Is up slightly you had it in terms of how long people were out of work that an average weeks were up slightly so there are things that that are less encouraging but overall like like.
The other said -- I think it's good I'll take it.
Yeah and the markets are elected and since he's been Scott Martin.
At what point the the good about the numbers today is it was goldilocks was not too hot it -- not too cold but at what point to -- jobs creation number come out and so good.
That stocks -- because now we worried the Fed's gonna tighten up on loose money.
It's more like -- locks right because at what point is Ben Bernanke and -- say OK were taken the foot off the gas pedal.
Well according to him Dennis -- six point 5% unemployment right.
Or how we gonna get there I would we're gonna get there by job growth what's gonna happen is enough people are gonna keep -- -- -- labor force which is not a good sign that's like a contrary indicator a healthy job market.
Which is going on behind the scenes that's when the Fed stops that's when Dennis like you said people start pulling money -- stocks because baud rates actually normalizing go up.
Right markets always overreact to the downside on things because people are warriors late my -- but -- about wealth that the Fed came out what number saying that household wealth.
Has recovered to pre recession levels -- -- like that what do you say.
You know I really struggle -- that number you know the bottom line is household wealth and really the middle class most people have their wealth tied up in their homes.
Their homes haven't recovered in value.
I think it's -- really kind of a questionable number of course if those homes had large investment accounts.
Of course those grew but I don't think that that's -- general you know American household.
I think that they're still be under the gun and I think that it it is kind of it and it looks good on the surface.
But I think if you really dug down talked of the average American I don't think he feels quite as good as those numbers would suggest bred Steve Hayes you know let's talk a little math here explain some forming.
Economists say that the sequester Cox which was 2.4 percent of the government spending.
The sequester cuts could lop off half a percentage point from GDP growth that's -- -- -- really low number how is it that -- and they say seven -- 50000 jobs could be lost.
Which is 26%.
Of the federal jobs on the payroll how is it that -- 2.4 percent cut in government spending results and all of this.
Horrible and a -- That's a very good question you know -- there's a reason I didn't take a lot of math and school.
But I have a look I I think -- -- you know if you look at if you look at them the dire predictions about what this request was gonna do I think the early indicators are whether it's these numbers or others.
That in fact it's not likely to be as as bad as as as was predicted by the CBO and by -- -- you've had private.
Firms who've done their own analyses weathered specifically on the defense industry or whether on the economy more broadly that suggested that.
People already priced in a lot of these cuts people -- assumed that these things -- we're going to get to have an effect.
And the the from the front loading impact is not likely to be as significant as once thought.
OK Scott Martin.
You know every time stocks have a nice run from the Freddie -- come out they say take your money off the table and I'm just let it sit there and sit there and sit there and it turns out I now feel brilliant.
What do you do when what are you telling clients we do -- -- -- -- your brilliance are you should relative Dennis what you sentiment -- people are warriors and the weird thing is is that the down markets make people feel worse then the markets make people feel good yes what I've been telling people is.
You need to have a plan to give and the problem is you can't just put all your money and after this jobs number you've got -- -- -- -- because I think like we talked about.
Bernanke and the guys -- gonna be around you things in Europe are gonna get better eventually that's not gonna fall off the -- the -- so you have to start getting in here but I just -- pick a particular day.
All right and -- my Dell I've got a theory.
Debt the economy will get better as a result of our feeling better -- mood drives economic brackets why the Fed worry so much.
That will react first to inflation before it even comes.
With rising stock prices like this it is gonna start making a lot of us feel better than half of this have stocks or mutual funds and our retirement fund.
You're you're exactly right I think it has I think that's part of the president's plan and that's why I think he's supporting.
You know Ben Bernanke's quantitative easing he knows that -- getting this section stimulus driving the market higher makes -- -- feel better makes us wanna do the things that.
You know make the economy work a little bit more efficiently and smoothly lending money except for so.
I agree I think it's all part of the plan.
Well I know it's certainly been really good for me and I hope it's good for you and you three were excellent today thanks a lot for being with us thanks to all --
