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University of Maryland economist Peter Morici, Stephen Moore of the Wall Street Journal, and WSJ economics reporter Ben Casselman discuss the February...
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Long and I want to.
I asked.
Too but Peter -- and then cast and we get have been first -- is there any way to know at this point but again if you're in your late fifties and discouraged.
That that's a great possibility.
Well we've seen that any unemployment is much higher among young people but the long term unemployment problem is mostly among people and in fifties and beyond.
And what we've seen recently we have seen some improvement in this long term unemployment problem but it's mostly been among people who were.
Have been out of work for six months for a year -- a year and a half once you start to get to that point of two years three years even four years of unemployment.
Those people are not getting jobs and.
And it's going to be very very difficult for them.
It worries he -- said.
Well the young people have to go into the job market eventually simply they're taking student loans to stay out of the job market.
And to some extent they're living off their parents and their parents will pass from the saying you know by the time they're 35 or what do you think.
Have to work.
Older people it's a different phenomena depends on household structure -- -- the lesser -- generate a household loses their job.
And the alternative is a very good they get along on a bit less of that person may never return.
But we have a lot of households that are running down their assets.
Cashing in their iris NGOs to young.
And they're gonna run out of money by the time a 65 or so I wouldn't be surprised to see them returning and working at the Wal-Mart with a Safeway.
This supplement Social Security some of them have to come back and because they're burning their retirement savings now.
-- you point out that the market -- to re reacting very positively.
To what looks like I headlined great number.
From the government.
As far as overall jobs.
But as you said the markets have been trading up on somewhat bad news do you think the markets are looking at any of these numbers -- thinking.
Things aren't so good where they expecting more -- perhaps.
Not look I think the big story here is the American economy is really starting to grow again we got -- a fourth quarter.
Remember the GDP number which was zero point one for -- basically treading water.
Now we're looking at maybe 3% or more for the first quarter of 2013.
That's a really.
Big big improvement so I think the real headline here is this economy is picking up steam.
To art let me ask you this stage with interest rates start going out longer term I are held -- And again the Fed had been mentioned -- you know I got this buying won't find Brian.
Bond buying programme which I guess we -- I have -- and it doesn't have a bond buying programme in light but the market the Fed might not have as much control over longer term right does it -- if -- -- Again if investors really start dumping treasuries -- -- No question about it that's the big dilemma what -- -- American economy right now is that.
The one thing that's really driving the economy driving the stock market is that.
That bond rates are as low as they've never they've been since the Great Depression you're right of that those rates go -- number one that's gonna it probably hurt the market and number 20 it's gonna drive up adopt sick as the US states government is the biggest.
Our wolf they have no idea what the deaths are risk they had no -- concept of what -- guess I'll run a second.
Whole -- you know it's one thing to be worried about the Fed printing money and pushing up asset prices in creating a bubble.
It's nothing to be worried that the Fed printing money is creating jobs.
This is a positive thing that happened this morning.
It -- -- -- thousand jobs means the policy is now working to the right effect not a bubble but people going back to work did so let's keep.
That in mind you just gave the Federal Reserve corporate credit -- creating.
Bad day but I do that.
And I don't mean to pick myself up off the floor I -- I don't hear -- Before we even begin this conversation before we got these numbers and you said we need to see much bigger jobs cut -- that to really talk about -- are really true recovery.
I mean let's be clear -- we've now seen three of the last four months job growth above 200.
When was the one month -- we didn't January which is when we saw that the payroll tax hit and we saw the after math of the of the whole fiscal -- -- So there's an argument here we get over 200 on a consistent basis.
Is it gonna bring us down about six point 5% target anytime soon -- we should start to see the unemployment rate continue to take.
Bring you in on this -- second look at that chart of the US dollar index which is course is the greenback against a basket of currencies.
It is skyrocketing.
Right now on -- day basis.
At 82 and a half I'm just wondering what that's all about.
Well it's not helpful is what it's all about because our trade deficit -- -- a lot in January and I'm expecting that to get worse especially with China.
And and so it's not good to have a stronger dollar at a time like this when -- trying to take -- and make us feel good as tourists.
But the fact that Europe is in the -- And -- other parts of the world aren't doing as well as people expected two years ago.
Good that could slow this -- that this recovery a lot in this administration has and inclined to look at that and I think they need to.
Do we need to worry Steve -- about the government getting in the way of this private sector -- down.
-- the candidate is still well that's still the debate -- There's not a trick question -- I.
But I personally delighted that -- -- I think those holding ground as the fact that.
I got all these regulations minimal wage you know virtually everything the president proposed and is not state of the union -- kind of negative for the economy but I think right now private businesses are saying you know what the government's kind of but not right now it's not the sidelines is some of these -- -- governments but it's going to be.
Lots of back ball saw a lot -- I actually I'll disagree a little bit with Peter I think the stronger dollar as a sign of more confidence in the American academy Peter probably right now it could also probably means we're about police rotten apple on the hour.
It -- Tenet if you play tennis it.
That was call you really bad lot about.
-- -- and also note that we are as we're talking about the bond market the ten year treasury note hitting its highest level right now.
Since April 23 wow.
OK and it's not if the adjustment in the US dollar is -- so a lot of market moving action on this you know -- -- computer.
