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Challenger Gray & Christmas executive vice president Rick Cobb gives his outlook for jobs numbers.
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All right well to help us break on the estimates and give us some of the insight for the morning's jobs numbers -- joined now on the phone by Rick Cobb executive vice president for challenger gray and Christmas.
Good morning -- good morning.
Are right big morning Peters is kind of set things got -- there's a few sticky fingers.
That might be revealed in this jobs reports for the month.
Of February the -- being one of them what are your expectations broadly for this as far as job creation and the unemployment rate first.
So we've been in a jobless recovery for quite some time now and if you look at the transfer -- data they've they've sort of hit the spongy -- -- have wandered around.
We look at this last month February we had a slight -- -- -- 37% uptick in -- announce layoffs from the previous month.
January.
Yet if you look at the total for 2013 against 2012 or actually 9% lower in terms of announced layoffs so what does that mean.
From this sequestering is an unknown right now what does it it's a battle -- -- in Washington as to what they're gonna do with those numbers -- 750000.
Jobs.
On the block but the reality -- those actually going to actual unemployment numbers is is completely unknown at this point -- the economy looks pretty good.
Economies trending positive in the last three years -- -- and that's a leading indicator.
The -- -- sounds like you're somewhat optimistic on this report right now the average economist is expecting -- jobs because of a 160000.
For the month in the unemployment rate to hold steady.
At seven point 9% are your expectations in line with that.
Yet we don't see a lot of changes that -- -- -- in -- that was in the financial sector this month.
Really is almost primarily and into JPMorgan Chase announcement in the 191000.
Positions that will be eliminated over two years.
And a lot of that is it is cutting back on the expansion they made when they had the deal with the troubled mortgages so there's not anything out there are on the radar that says where we're headed for trouble.
What sort of the role do you think weather played in all this there was a lot of snowy weather across the midwest and along the East Coast.
I'd during the month that that could -- impact retailers people heading up to the stores that kind of thing.
What do you expect as far as its overall impact on bid on jobs in the month.
Like it resist the -- that had a chilling effect.
But do retail even though retail was gonna contributor this year -- data.
They're actually hiring faster than that much faster than they're laying off the 81000.
So far year to date in in announced hiring plans this year.
So I think I think that's exactly and I think that there's there's a there's some potential job growth -- in construction and gain in retail that has been suppressed by the weather.
Is a 160000.
Jobs growth during the month of February is bad enough.
At this point -- eight you know while while some are predicting this morning that we could see a better than expected number perhaps a 180000.
-- 190000 jobs growth.
If this -- we still talking about realistic numbers that can bring us out of you know bring us to a stronger recovery.
Well those numbers by themselves don't aren't enough jobs that's on the job creation it's it's it's not negative I guess is I think that -- look at it does not necessarily.
Indications of the strong turnaround.
So what would how would you describe the trend overall in the jobs market right now.
Well that what we've got is every time we go through a contraction in the economy in the last twenty years that we've gotten much better at not hiring back and I say by that we mean corporate America.
We've been able to replace it with technology we've been able to upgrade in certain areas and and cut back and not step up.
So we run -- would -- our ability to run very lean and and not read -- expand when we contract has become better and better it's become a true science.
So we received we really are seeing the effects of that in terms of the jobless recovery.
I think the job creation engine really still resides in the -- in the 500 undersized employee companies that's where the attention has been focused if -- For looking at the bottle -- it's it's creating and we -- making it liquid for those small companies small to midsize companies in and creating an environment.
Both politically and financially where they can expand that's -- -- is gonna happen.
And keep prepare us for any possible surprises here I -- -- we see some major revisions to previous months.
The manufacturing sector what what's what's year main focus outside of just looking at the nonfarm payrolls number.
Don't see a lot of change you know we knew this -- and we're looking at the that the world where the cuts have occurred in the past they tend to be driven by sector sector pressure or specific company that's a large players it's open impact.
We don't we I think there's tremendous amount of pressure on the on the human resources side in organizations.
To hold the numbers and higher as they absolutely have to but I think there's a lot of hiring pressure that's -- that's built up so as -- as the economy continues to.
-- along and we and and we have any sort of positive -- those two I think we'll see an expansion but I don't see any additional contractions are surprises.
-- thanks for setting -- up at -- for us this morning Rick Cobb challenger gray and Christmas executive vice president thanks a lot -- Thank you and.
