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Former U.S. Ambassador to Venezuela Jeffrey Davidow, The Schork Report’s Stephen Schork and AEI Fellow Roger Noriega on the future of Venezuela’s ...
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Says we heard on the -- that is was facing an uncertain future in this post Chavez air analysts say.
That the US oil industry could strike it rich the nationalization of the country's oil industry in 2007 -- big oil companies to pull out.
But will companies like ConocoPhillips and ExxonMobil return right now.
-- solid cancers.
Jeffrey Davidow is former US and Venezuela Roger Noriega is being with the American enterprise institute and a former US ambassador to the Organization of American States immigrants even shark.
Of the -- report -- all of you.
Just start with you.
Has a lot as it into need it comes from whether or not the people are satisfied with the conditions -- living in right now you know they were willing to.
It's crazy to me -- and an applicant because they believed in Chavez but do you think now -- they look around and say.
Our quality of life is not that great we need to change or do they not really I don't know see what they're missing.
Well I think this.
Where you really hit the most important question.
And we're gonna find out in one way or another.
Probably within the next month because the -- of the answer to a lot of the questions that we have.
For instance that one about whether oil companies might come back -- We'll be dependent on what happens in the elections.
Right now looks like the candidate for the child is people is gonna be the person he.
Who put his benediction on the guy who's vice president Nicholas -- Dora.
And if the opposition can hold together as they did last year.
-- -- capriles will be the candidate.
It's so much hatred then.
On who comes out ahead than those select -- if the child -- guy wins it's more of the same -- economic disaster.
But you don't Roger it seems like.
You -- -- -- into office they were producing about 38 at 3.5 million barrels a day now it's dipped down to two and a half they say they're reserves.
Are even bigger than Saudi Arabia's however Saudi Arabia can turn out.
Ten million barrels about you don't even -- -- -- -- in the morning they're even have put the effort into it seems like -- is well absolutely needs outside investment.
In order to pump the oil and make the money they need.
Are they going to do it what do you think.
Well a lot of it depends on whether they have the rule of law and political stability and there as well as the political will.
At the very top even if the -- -- as word of hold on to power after an election.
It's very predictable.
That there will be those among them say we need to open up to the two media.
To the private sector investment to foreign investment capital technology expertise.
To really renovate.
What's left of the petroleum sector -- they do produce about two and a half 2.4.
Million barrels a day.
But that's woefully under what -- -- what their potential.
-- is and I think they recognize that and either they're missing the boat there's.
With oil at such high passes -- would have rolled out the red carpet for the Chinese and for the Russians who are looking at oil as well as natural gas.
And -- the Chinese are really pulled up to the table here and are going to expect particularly from a -- state government are going to expect first right of refusal.
Stephen what do you think of the Chinese do it allowed is there any chance that American companies get a -- -- -- there -- now.
I think the American companies they've gotten burned once they're -- to sit back and wait to see how this election plays out.
If we go ahead and need Venezuelan people real -- the door or -- to keep the -- -- program -- They -- the US companies will not come back if we do get some sort of quote unquote pro west.
Government into Caracas you still gonna take a wait and see.
Approach share this kind of reminds me when I first came in the industry in the early 1990s.
With the implosion of the Soviet Union you had a tremendous amount of investment that went into Siberia to get the oil to get a hold of those natural resources.
In what they found out was that the infrastructure so dilapidated so malnourished -- -- war.
That they never got their money back out she does has spent the better part of the last fourteen years butchering -- as -- -- -- how -- that industry.
-- in -- country is not it is a skeleton to what it once was so it's gonna take a significant amount of investment to go in there and given the terms on how the negotiated.
I really don't think Exxon comical look at this they're not gonna go rushing into that they don't need to at this point.
Is that it is so tempting though I mean -- they are so rich with oil resources I -- they had Rafael Ramirez go to the last OPEC meeting -- stand there and talk about how.
They have more natural resources in the Saudi Arabia I think with.
With oil getting harder and harder to find around the world it's just too -- of a morsel.
Jeff who do you think has the best chance of getting and there are even though as -- says he's right I mean it's a big gamble.
But there's a huge you know pot of -- there.
Well not all of the private companies have left a lot of a lot of them stayed they had to accept minority status.
In joint ventures with the national oil company there.
In what they have found this as that company the national oil company has been increasingly.
Mismanaged.
It cannot meet its part of the bargain that can go into a partnership but it has to put up money it has put up some technology.
And it is not doing what it -- contracts to do the people who are finding this out in a very big way right now with the Chinese.
Who have signed a lot of deals with Venezuela.
Lending money to Venezuela to be -- in oil.
By the way -- very disadvantaged.
Rates for the Venezuelan people.
In the Chinese of pulling there -- right now because they're finding that contracts that they've signed development comply with frank because the venezuelans are incapable of doing it.
Roger let me ask you real quick before we go I'm vice president Nicholas -- bureau.
Hat -- what is his future look like do you think he's able to hang on to power does he win the election -- -- the -- -- well.
Under the constitution he shouldn't even be that president.
Venezuela after chavis' passing.
Article 233 says -- should go to the president of the National Assembly so you have when you're already usurping power.
Off to a very suspicious beginning and it comes to reassuring.
Pay investors are Democrats are of the international community that that they're gonna turn over -- new -- after Chavez.
All right we'll leave it there guys thank you so much.
Thank you tighten --
