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United Capital CEO Joe Duran and Swiss America Trading Chairman Craig Smith on the state of the markets.
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About that but first -- America chairman Craig Smith.
Number you know Joseph -- -- manages over fifteen billion dollars in investment Joseph did anything change today or punctuated confirm.
What we've been seeing in recent days.
I think got two things have happened that are important one.
The market is a reflection of -- collective psychology.
And until it hit a new high I think the average and that's there was still -- may.
What do I do to avoid losing money mindset and when you go to new highs which will not not be in all the various.
Of -- this evening and this coming week.
They'll start shifting to am I missing opportunities of that ship from fear of losing -- this -- of missing opportunities.
Is real and what you see when you hit new highs as an inflow of new money.
-- fortune people must the people watching this show.
The net it flow into equities on these started increasing and -- December suffer most people.
We've had net outflows of stocks for most of this rally until four months ago.
Side to mean nothing fundamentally change you're absolutely right in your preamble that that the fundamentals that -- -- in the -- -- not true today.
And this is led by a lack of opportunities to invest anywhere else interest rates that hovering at 2%.
There's no real place to put -- money and this is the best alternative out there and sense a lot of the government threats that turned out to be fake.
And haven't had ramifications.
What it means -- people are saying it's not as risky to invest in stocks anymore.
And it looks relatively more attractive get -- -- from stocks them from government treasuries and that's what we're seeing today.
Large cap dividend driven -- -- it's unlike 2007 very very broad.
And that would suggest that this want to come in this market.
Or if there is more to come history would suggest Fred Smith that there isn't a lot more to comment in most circumstances of the doubt -- -- records.
It's a punctuating moment that's often followed sometimes is it little more than a few weeks is not a few months by something bad.
We -- 2007 remember and after the 2008.
Remember the early highs in 1987.
And of course remember what happened in the fall of 87.
The same with early -- -- -- nine in the fall of -- -- -- The market has a way -- on the -- celebrating the good.
And then soon thereafter.
Looking at something pretty dead what do you think happens now.
Yeah we have short term memory on some of the Black Swan events that have cost people billions upon billions of dollars I think shows right most investors were taking a very defensive posture.
Now they feel that they're gonna have to run after the market for returns because they're sure not gonna get it is sitting in treasuries.
I don't -- -- -- yet are they doing that based on this.
Dow records today at the money's been crawling candidate taking money off the sidelines so to speak.
You can only get so much bang out of this this -- this -- right.
You've you -- and that's why I'm real grateful for the interview on Fox Business today that Liz claim it did with bill fleck and Stein.
You know off if you turn to -- -- the other networks you saw it looked like cheerleading competition.
Bill fleck and Stein took a very sober approach this market and look you know meal I've always believed in diversification you always have some money in the -- at some money as stocks gold bonds cash real estate.
But I got to tell you for the -- to be popped off the champagne bottles now going to be talking about 151000 or 161000 now.
Unless mr.
Bernanke continues to -- draw I mean Lance Armstrong won a number of toward a France's we found out it was dumb because -- -- would drugs.
Hey guess what that's what we've been doing we've been pumping this market with trillions of dollars of America's -- mention of the number seventeen trillion in government.
Three trillion and fed.
I mean I -- stock market is very profitable right now corporation balance sheets look very good.
If we do have a pick up in the economy I think profits are gonna be very strong and then I'd be excited about the Dow.
Right now I'm still very cautious deal.
All right Joseph real quickly.
Many are calling this the the Ben Bernanke rally this latest turn what was really fuel.
I'm Ben Bernanke -- that he's not done providing this this drug -- whatever you wanna call it so that's what's driving.
-- that term.
It is absolutely true and it's not just -- happening in Japan it's happening in Europe what all the developed countries central markets have done.
At central bankers that said waking up flood this system until we get inflation.
-- we reached late.
And for me the thing that concerns me losses top line growth you're not seeing that kind of top line growth that you want to see.
It's a lot of good profit making bad not necessarily from growing and you see that from the fact that companies -- returning dividends.
I'm buying this stock which in essence.
Supports high earnings growth but not necessarily revenue growth from -- -- the stock market have a really long term run you need to see.
GDP growth revenue growth now that's not true in emerging countries and a lot of content company is making tons of money in the emerging world.
Where there is real revenue growth and GDP growth.
All right gentlemen I want to thank you both -- to be.
