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NFID Chief Economist Bill Dunkelberg on the state of the economy and small businesses during the beginning of 2013.
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The economy stole economic numbers out this week will -- on this that not going to be good build uncle -- joins us.
I've dealt with the numbers coming out on productivity on factories on durable goods and then the big wanna.
Unemployment.
They look like they're going to be real bad what's -- guess what's the Preston gonna say about this weakening economy.
Well maybe you gonna blame bush -- gamma -- remember he inherited -- -- economy I mean what can we say so.
His policies don't seem to matter or he says that somebody else's policies so.
You know hill will certainly shift the blame I'm sure and and private try to blame the Republicans say there -- two intransigent them.
Won't deal will make good policy decisions that he wants them.
There -- rules says so we're still locked up if you look at of the small businesses out there which -- half of the GDP -- half a private employment.
70% of them said it's bad time to expand their business.
And the 30% of them said it because of political uncertainty political climate has Washington's like getting anything done now I wanna follow.
-- -- on this because you come of the small business arena really very very closely you know telling me that 70%.
Think it's just a bad idea to expand your business this year because that jives him without number we got from the Wall Street Journal today.
Saying the big publicly traded corporations.
They've got an overwhelmingly negative outlook going for the rest of the yeah.
Business doesn't feel good about 2013.
Does it.
Right because if you look back you know edited twelve and eleven we had a very well we still have a very bifurcated economy so.
The big ones of the fortune 500 you know have record share of GDP now -- profits -- mean they've been doing very well.
And so that part of the economy let's say they're part of the economy's growing 4% the other half the small business sector is not growing it's clearly.
Not going anywhere so zero plus four divided by two that's 2% growth.
That's basically what we've had but now the driver for the big firms which -- been exports.
Selling around the world.
Most of those companies make more money outside of the US they do inside that's really slowing down dramatically so now.
That half of the economy's gonna slowdown all of the small business -- -- not picking up and so that really August were.
Less than 2% growth for the year which many economist.
The forecast that's a -- look on their expressed an opinion and it is my opinion that a slow and not do this all time.
The slow -- domestic economy.
Is a direct result of the threat of tax increases late last year.
The actuality a tax increases on January the -- And it does still the ongoing threat of more tax increases still to come I think tax increases all the drive this very weak economy.
Tell me.
Well I think I think -- certainly isn't helping and the president's been going around the country telling us all the bad things that are gonna happen because of government policy in Washington so.
He says everybody's going to be fired laid off and pay is gonna go down and people are gonna get services and airports won't work and how that's really uplifting -- -- at the wet Willie's gonna make you what is good about here what when it.
When is the president of the Democrats all the majority the American people gonna realize that the current policies on -- walking.
Well that's a good question you know I think it's probably about 5050 now.
Would -- look at the various pieces.
Of things the president seems to give pretty good marks on very specific issues like you know getting more health care for you are giving -- free contraception or.
Do in this of that -- -- looking at the management of the economy's not getting good marks.
And you'd think that would -- a little bit better.
At the at the polls but I guess we won't really know.
How how voters feel about it and felt when he fourteen so.
In the meantime the campaigns often running and we're gonna see a lot of politics but probably not a lot of good policy and not a very good economy -- -- uncle a way to express our thanks so much for coming -- -- projects stood.
