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Chapman University presidential fellow Joel Kotkin and 'What to Expect When No One's Expecting' author Jonathan V. Last on how certain demographics ar...
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I rudely refused to -- I just don't want to.
And because free enterprise invented things like vaccines and our rise Lipitor probably won't -- soon average people who.
Make -- -- my -- live until were 84.
Now I'll pay for my retirement I've saved up the problem is who will pay for the millions of retired people who didn't.
Say who expect Social Security checks and Medicare.
I know -- young people will pay for them.
When my generation the baby boomers retire you'll still be working earning money you'll take care in the -- It's how it's almost done that was FDR's assumption when he created Social Security units worked.
Up until now.
But now that just aren't -- enough -- view and in the future there will be even fewer review because.
People that they have fewer kids and that's a big problem say Jonathan last and jolt -- -- Last just -- what to expect when no one's expecting America's coming demographic disaster.
Joseph Hopkins the author of the next hundred million America in 2050.
-- you say if we don't start to have kids that are reasonable rate -- screw.
Yet meaning.
Fundamentally and if you don't have enough children.
To work for the number retirees it doesn't work what doesn't work well there's only so many people working contributing.
To the the pension system and there's too many people drawing on the pension system is pretty simple.
And Jonathan you say what to expect when no one's expecting we mean no one's expecting.
We're not having babies the way we used to well some people are some people overnight in Kelly's pregnant Houston public -- -- -- never know what she's gonna -- Yeah another problem is portals getting as we -- actually rate drops and stays below the replacement level.
That over time your page profile -- to get this inverted pyramid with more old people -- young people what economists call babies they called future taxpayers.
We don't have -- -- future taxpayers being born in paying into the system.
They had support ratio drops and the replacement.
Rate you -- -- two point one right.
Two parents and then to account for some kids dying you need to point one births to maintain.
Exactly and and we.
We were at that two point one really up until about 2007.
And then -- Now we're at one point 93 right and it's going down as we get richer.
And people get more self Fisher white as a -- a crappy economy people's bubble pessimism.
When you -- countries -- ultra low birth rates in.
Basically -- with pessimism what type of future people don't have kids if they think the futures and -- that we change.
That's that's the hope plus immigration we're now talking about a new law bring people.
Well what if that's a positive also I would thank you well I'm positive that the -- we become so dependent on immigration to bill we are fertility rate.
That we really are hostage to continuing and it may not -- fertility rates are dropping worldwide including in central and South America -- Mexico is right.
Right at the replacement rate right now and falling fast in Singapore the government gives cash bonuses to mothers who have more babies.
Yes -- to work.
Not really.
It works a little bit but doesn't work enough.
What we worship god doing interviews and Singapore and asking young woman what would it take for you to have a -- we got up to a million bucks we gave -- Like she wasn't gonna have a -- no matter how much.
Because they -- -- -- over time that kid's gonna cost more than a million bucks so why should go through the hassle.
Why should we believe you two doomsayers anymore then.
Paul -- likened the population bothered to many babies were crowding everybody -- which is what I was taught in colleges total nonsense.
Maybe -- self correct.
You know we're just from raising the issue.
We -- we have a problem they can be a very serious long term problem how do we address it -- -- society you look at Japan.
We you'll have by 2050 more people over -- even on the fifteen Japan -- been I have this problem first exit they are having it now.
I've been -- by Japanese -- for 25 years it it's.
It was exactly what we thought was happening is happening and worse than we thought a prime minister said.
Let elderly people hurry up and die according to the guardian newspaper.
He was talking about look you're not being a good person if you let the government pay for -- year old age they are -- getting to a point now.
Not only were people living -- of not getting married they're not -- they're not.
The lives that the normal state -- -- Well I mean that there there are surveys -- they asked how many young young -- teenage boys.
Other -- sex and this like most of them aren't.
You know I don't know when I was a teenager and was kind of a big topic.
You know.
It's like they've almost evolved into some new kind of species but hopefully that won't happen.
And in America it.
So knowing American well and your Democrat but you still might find this funny I quote -- -- have a government program -- to cut the tips off condoms service but.
Placebos in birth control pills there.
I I figured past have copies very white.
The best thing is that -- that have economic growth have people feel that of the world's gonna get better.
And they'll they'll have children I still believe that that's the key thing and not to do stupid things like tell people.
That they can't have single family homes because you know Al Gore thinks that they shouldn't.
And Mayor Bloomberg you say is contributing to the problem by pushing small apartments.
Well I think you'll have too many families and those -- -- -- Obama blend of the 300 square foot apartment there's a lot of real -- money to be made.
In tiny apartments usually have -- more apartments into the same structure.
She can't have a family and a small apartment people used so lived in.
People don't you get a lift a lot of kids you know strain is research and has come back to 1930s.
The -- started building after the first world war.
Small condensed apartment buildings they noticed very quickly the fertility -- was dropping.
Now this has been reproduced everywhere from Chicago to Iran to Brazil.
That turned out to be entirely consistent that housing type influences fertility even holding all the other demographic factors but the people living there constant.
It's a single family homes produce more kids in town homes town homes -- more kids than.
Small micro apartments.
And I think that this is something you're gonna see more.
In more more countries as as we go one and that this debate because as you know there are now having debates about this issue in Iran and and East Asia.
-- in Europe and so I think is going to be one of the big issues next twenty years.
Thank you jolt Jonathan so go forth and procreate and coming up.
One reason -- the debt.
