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Case-Shiller Home Price Index co-author Robert Shiller gives his outlook for the housing market.
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Thank you.
So great news for investors on the housing front the latest case Shiller report shows prices in the twenty cities surveyed jumped six point 8% -- -- -- he.
Which it is the best and yearly gain since July of 2006 remember those days straight.
Earlier today I talked with the co -- about report -- professor Robert Shiller and here's what he had to -- The housing market is has more momentum -- the stock market so I expected to continue to go up in the short run.
The longer run is our is unclear this -- a speculative market and I don't.
You know I'm not -- joining the crowd do it but who is saying that this is a major turning point we don't know that yet.
Why what makes you think it's not a major turning point -- -- when you look at the at this ask themselves and in a year or -- your numbers we just mentioned really -- twenty city index six point 8%.
Ten city index five point 9% in it makes it seem like we did in fact hit a bottom.
In 2012.
Note.
Well if enough people think that that will be a self fulfilling prophesy I'm trying to -- gauge that right now.
But you know we had our apparent rebound in 20092010.
And that one fizzled out people say that that one was caused by.
The home buyer tax credit and when they've -- the tax credit home prices start far he had.
Maybe that.
-- -- -- of government policy is very uncertain right now we don't know what next shoe is going to drop.
I'm just saying yes it's going up and likely it will at least in the short run continue to do that but people have to remember this is a speculative market and it can go up and it can go down.
So let's explore some of the things that you just sad you said.
We don't know what's happened with the government or -- a possible next shoe to drop could be.
What would that be adding what are some of the things that you see coming in the next six months to a year that could derail -- But not a political pundit but there are issues first of -- with the mortgage tax deduction.
With the continuing some part of Fannie and Freddie.
With the FHA which is close to bankruptcy.
We don't know what -- will come from them -- how congress will deal with that.
And there is uncertainty abroad with Europe having severe problems as we know how.
I'm just talking reality it's not dooms day I'm not saying horrible things are going to happen.
But the -- thing is that housing.
Hasn't shown in -- most of the history of housing in the United States hasn't shown a tendency to be going up and up.
It was just the bubble that we saw in the early two thousands that was really unusual.
So that's not just go back and think it's gonna.
Happen all over again if it does it'll be a surprise.
You know it's interesting because we had.
Barbara Corcoran on the show yesterday saying almost exactly the opposite -- -- she was seeking that.
Over a long period of time if you look at a twelve year stretch that when you cut out that any twelve year stretch you watch housing prices -- -- and that's something.
You know that investors can keep in the back of their mind it feels like the opposite of what you're saying well I.
I -- home price data back to 1890s.
And I do -- inflation corrected.
So I mean if it goes up with the inflation -- I don't consider that meaningful.
Inflation corrected there was no increase virtually no increase in home prices between 1890 and 1990s.
About a hundred years.
Yeah now that's interesting -- -- said that she feels like.
Confidence is not back that people are still scared and gun -- based on what happens and having lost Germany.
And that there isn't confidence in the market that sounds like it's the opposite of what you're seeing as well.
Well I've been doing survey data on home -- at least we -- long term expectations.
Gradually declining and I don't have those who we have to do another survey -- but the Michigan consumer sentiment people have done a survey.
And they find that only 59%.
Of the population -- -- December thinks that home prices will go up over the next five years.
That's much lower than it -- in 2009 it was 69%.
-- does not like we're seeing this huge rebirth of confidence right now.
-- -- watching the show yesterday ending that's what makes the market right it was Robert Shiller co author of the Case Shiller Index with really the opposite what Barbara -- missing yesterday really that's mixed market.
Absolutely different perspectives.
Battle.
