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Trulia.com chief economist Jed Kolko on the shift to conventional sales in the real-estate market.
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Cold existing home sales out this morning edging up a bit in January inventory of unsold homes -- the lowest level in thirteen years.
But tight inventory at present some problems of -- -- for the spring selling season we got more now.
From -- -- -- Coke the Trulia dot com chief economist thanks for being with us.
So up zero point 4% generated over over December up 9% vs year ago this is good news.
Those -- relatively small numbers but -- better news is that we've had seen a big shift.
From foreclosure sales in short sales.
From conventional sales those conventional sales are up 29% year over year -- said.
Big improvement.
Not even conventional sales -- I'm hearing a lot of the buyers are investors rather than homeowners that all the good alternative that speculation standpoint it depends where you are in some of the markets -- the big price declines like Phoenix Vegas Detroit.
A lot of those buyers are investors and other places like San Francisco in Denver with strong job growth.
Less investor activity and -- more local -- okay you got this nice line you say even after all of these signs of recovery even after house how home builder stocks have doubled.
He -- we -- only 52%.
Along the way toward full housing recovery -- -- -- that 52%.
We look at several measures we look at construction.
Sales and delinquencies and foreclosures and we compare where we're at the very worst of the crisis and about 2009.
To the long term normal not -- during the bubble of the long term normal we're about halfway back that I live.
Now how long's it take it that other after -- -- our housing I believe housing top to know 607.
And started this long slide I think -- went down 30% overall prices.
So that's been five or six years almost five years how long to get back on that second half of the recovery -- it's taken about three years to climb halfway back up.
Right now we've seen fewer foreclosure inventory.
Fewer red flags for probably another two or three years to a back to a sustainable normal not to a bubble but the sustainable -- sustainable normal.
And out and tell me why it is solitary for a couple years.
The inventory of homes up for sale is just way -- -- there's too many homes there's -- -- many foreclosures.
And help people complain about tight inventory how can you guys cannot be happy.
Inventories tight for a lot of reasons we had many years now -- very little constructed so we've added few new homes.
Also lots of people have been under water and -- the prices are turning around.
No -- wants to sell if they think prices might rise more fire one up buyers -- -- by the bottom.
But sellers don't wanna sell anywhere near the bottom so a lot of -- are holding back.
Look -- -- -- -- to to rise more to the big problem with what with too much in the farming actually a big problem toward recovery is that sellers were unwilling for the longest time to lower their prices enough to get those homes sold right that's right now sellers -- getting patient they think prices will keep rising in the probably right.
Which means if people can hold off six months twelve months to sell they will -- Overall though the biggest lesson we learned did we get.
In this held housing meltdown is that you wanna buy a home that you can afford it capable -- and that you wanna live then you should not be buying a home because you know -- -- that baby and make an investment -- right we know that home values go up and down.
There are risks.
He was he buying homes if if the right choice for them if they can stay put for a long time as the place they wanted to.
All right there's -- good good points the vice thanks very much for being with -- -- -- -- of -- dot com today.
